What Nate Silver thinks about democracy
Forecaster, founder of FiveThirtyEight, author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. Writes Silver Bulletin, where the predictions come with numbers and the numbers are later checked against what happened.
Nate Silver did not write this page.
We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.
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7 dated positions, 2026, in their own words. Our reading of what Nate Silver has said — not written or endorsed by them.
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Their wordsAs much as we hope you’ll join us for our Election Night coverage, there’s a reasonably good chance that the midterm outcome, especially in the Senate, won’t be clear by Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.
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Our readingIn about 20 percent of FLIPR simulations, control of the Senate will come down to exactly one state.
Their wordsEven if everyone is on their best behavior, in about 20 percent of FLIPR simulations, control of the Senate will come down to exactly one state.
- 5 days earlier
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Their wordsBut also, the House is just far less competitive than the Senate this year.
↗The 83 remotely competitive House races, according to FLIPRnatesilver.net
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Their wordsThe battleground expanding late in the race is a hallmark of a wave election.
↗The 83 remotely competitive House races, according to FLIPRnatesilver.net
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Their wordsAnd gerrymandering by both parties, along with voter self-sorting (cities blue; rural areas red) has reduced the number of competitive districts.
↗The 83 remotely competitive House races, according to FLIPRnatesilver.net
- 4 days earlier
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Their wordsOne consistent story this cycle is that Democratic Senate candidates are doing surprisingly well in traditionally red states such as Texas, but in bluer states — most obviously Michigan and Minnesota — their polling has been less than stellar. Don’t bet on that changing dramatically in the final days leading up to the election.
- 2 weeks earlier
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Their wordsOverall, there isn’t much evidence that female candidates face an electoral penalty, although that deserves a deeper analysis.
↗The left’s fortunes have been rising. Will 2028 be AOC’s moment?natesilver.net