Nate Silver
Forecaster, founder of FiveThirtyEight, author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. Writes Silver Bulletin, where the predictions come with numbers and the numbers are later checked against what happened.
Nate Silver did not write this page.
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· held 9 months
Believed beforesaid
Their words thenIf you want absurd specificity, I recently estimated Trump’s chance of becoming the GOP nominee at 2 percent.
Nowsaid
Our readingNo longer believes this.
Their wordsWe didn’t just get unlucky: We made a big mistake, along with a couple of marginal ones.
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