politics 9
- Perpetually increasing polarization means that fewer states are competitive, there is less ticket-splitting, and candidate effects are weaker.
- Polls may be biased in either direction
Nate Silver
Forecaster, founder of FiveThirtyEight, author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. Writes Silver Bulletin, where the predictions come with numbers and the numbers are later checked against what happened.
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What Nate Silver says most about
America 7
- Polls may be biased in either direction
- Across nine election years since 2008, polls were biased against Democrats once, against Republicans four times, and basically unbiased four times.
AI alignment 3
- Cautious expert race ratings, like Cook's, are misaligned with the long history of strong opposition performance in midterms under unpopular presidents.
- It seems like common-sense risk management that the AI industry needs far more regulation and probably some enforceable slowdown.
energy 2
- Democratic polling overperformance has generally been strongest in the central U.S., in rural, agricultural, and energy-producing states.
- Fuel price inflation is much higher in diesel-heavy farm states and may explain some surprisingly competitive Senate races.
government 2
- It seems like common-sense risk management that the AI industry needs far more regulation and probably some enforceable slowdown.
- Substantive AI regulation is probably more likely to pass than conventional wisdom suggests.