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Donald Trump has only about a 2 percent chance of becoming the 2016 Republican nominee
Drawn from what Nate Silver said, then moved away from
What Nate Silver actually said
- Nate Silver · held 9 months Forecaster, founder of FiveThirtyEight
No longer holdsBasically, my view is that putting Trump’s chances at 2 percent or 5 percent was too low, but having him at (for instance) 10 percent or 15 percent, where we might have wound up if we’d developed a model or thought about the problem more rigorously, would have been entirely appropriate.
Their words nowWe didn’t just get unlucky: We made a big mistake, along with a couple of marginal ones.
Added to korrents 24 Oct 2026 · How quotes work · Something wrong? Tell us
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