What Ajeya Cotra thinks about scaling laws

@ajeya-cotra · 30 positions · On ppll ↗

AI researcher and grantmaker, known for the biological-anchors work on when transformative AI might arrive. Writes Planned Obsolescence with Kelsey Piper.

Ajeya Cotra did not write this page.

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Only Ajeya Cotra on scaling laws. See everyone on scaling laws

2 dated positions, 2023, in their own words. Our reading of what Ajeya Cotra has said — not written or endorsed by them.

2 positions so far — this page is not yet offered to search engines.

1. 29 Aug 2023

   Our readingForecasters underestimate AI spending even more than they underestimate AI capability, and the spending is what drives the next leap.

   Their wordsMost importantly, ML experts and superforecasters both seem to be massively underestimating future spending on training runs.

   ↗Language models surprised usplanned-obsolescence.org 2nd of 4 in this piece

3. 29 Aug 2023

   Our readingAI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard.

   Their wordsThis rapid scaleup will probably drive another qualitative leap forward in capability like what we saw over the last 18 months.

   ↗Language models surprised usplanned-obsolescence.org 3rd of 4 in this piece