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Ajeya Cotra

What Ajeya Cotra thinks about LLMs

@ajeya-cotra · 30 positions · On ppll ↗

AI researcher and grantmaker, known for the biological-anchors work on when transformative AI might arrive. Writes Planned Obsolescence with Kelsey Piper.

Ajeya Cotra did not write this page.

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Only Ajeya Cotra on LLMs. See everyone on LLMs

3 dated positions, 2023 to 2026, in their own words. Our reading of what Ajeya Cotra has said — not written or endorsed by them.

3 positions so far — this page is not yet offered to search engines.

  1. Our readingOpen-source models cannot keep frontier systems in check, because they will always be much dumber than the frontier.

    open source

    Their wordsI'm not sure I like agree exactly with the oversight benefit you named of like you know open source systems keeping frontier systems in check feels more unrealistic to me because they're going to be so much dumber than the frontier systems.

    ↗Ajeya Cotra – "This might be the clearest warning shot we ever get"youtube.com 18th of 26 in this recording

  2. 3 years earlier

  3. Our readingMachine-learning researchers and superforecasters alike were surprised by how fast language models improved in 2022 and 2023.

    Their wordsMost experts were surprised by progress in language models in 2022 and 2023.

    ↗Language models surprised usplanned-obsolescence.org 1st of 4 in this piece

  5. Our readingAI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard.

    Their wordsThis rapid scaleup will probably drive another qualitative leap forward in capability like what we saw over the last 18 months.

    ↗Language models surprised usplanned-obsolescence.org 3rd of 4 in this piece