Machine-learning researchers and superforecasters alike were surprised by how fast language models improved in 2022 and 2023.

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Our reading — they may agree, disagree or merely touch the same thing. Closest first: a shared subject counts for most, then how near the wording is.

• Large language models could still plateau, and that possibility should be held open even though no evidence of it has appeared. DHDavid Heinemeier Hansson26 Aug 2026similar wording
• Large language models are generalisations of what we already have; the breakthrough that would let AI discover things is still waiting to happen. LRLisa Randall3 Dec 2023similar wording
• Future language models will be smaller and loop on themselves with a retrieval system, which is what will finally let them cite their sources. GHGeorge Hotz29 Jun 2023similar wording
• Almost every major figure in AI has now arrived at the critique of large language models he began making in 2019. GMGary Marcus26 Sept 2025similar wording
• Robot models will reach ChatGPT-level capability within the next few years, even without a ChatGPT-style moment. CFChelsea Finn12 Aug 2026similar wording

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