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← Machine-learning researchers and superforecasters alike were surprised…
17 connected korrents · 19 moments on record from 21 Jan 2019 to 3 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under LLMs
LLMs
Everything filed under formal proof
formal proof
Everything filed under Google
Google
Everything filed under reinforcement learning
reinforcement learning
Everything filed under OpenAI
OpenAI
Everything filed under scaling laws
scaling laws Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Machine-learning researchers and superforecasters alike were surprised by how fast language models improved in 2022 and 2023. Machine-learning researchers and superforecasters alike were surprised by how fast language models improved in 2022 and 2023. Last stated 3 years ago
29 Aug 2023
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Large language models could still plateau, and that possibility should be held open even though no evidence of it has appeared. — tap to centre the map on it Large language models could still plateau, and that possibility should be held open even though no evidence of it has appeared. Last stated 2 weeks ago
26 Aug 2026
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Large language models are generalisations of what we already have; the breakthrough that would let AI discover things is still waiting to happen. — tap to centre the map on it Large language models are generalisations of what we already have; the breakthrough that would let AI discover things is still waiting to happen. Last stated 3 years ago
3 Dec 2023
LR
Lisa Randall — holds since 2023-12-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Future language models will be smaller and loop on themselves with a retrieval system, which is what will finally let them cite their sources. — tap to centre the map on it Future language models will be smaller and loop on themselves with a retrieval system, which is what will finally let them cite their sources. Last stated 3 years ago
29 Jun 2023
GH
George Hotz — holds since 2023-06-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Almost every major figure in AI has now arrived at the critique of large language models he began making in 2019. — tap to centre the map on it Almost every major figure in AI has now arrived at the critique of large language models he began making in 2019. Last stated 11 months ago
26 Sept 2025
GM
Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-09-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Robot models will reach ChatGPT-level capability within the next few years, even without a ChatGPT-style moment. — tap to centre the map on it Robot models will reach ChatGPT-level capability within the next few years, even without a ChatGPT-style moment. Last stated 4 weeks ago
12 Aug 2026
CF
Chelsea Finn — holds since 2026-08-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Work on large language models is not progress toward artificial general intelligence, because the models do not understand what they read. — tap to centre the map on it Work on large language models is not progress toward artificial general intelligence, because the models do not understand what they read. Last stated a year ago
30 Jul 2025
AG
Alexey Guzey — holds since 2024-08-09 — tap for who they are
AG
Alexey Guzey — no longer holds since 2025-07-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. — tap to centre the map on it AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. Last stated 2 years ago
2 Feb 2025
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Alexander — holds since 2022-09-12 — tap for who they are
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2025-02-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI model capability progress is not going to slow down soon — tap to centre the map on it AI model capability progress is not going to slow down soon Last stated 5 days ago
3 Sept 2026
AR
Armin Ronacher — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A verifiable task can be optimised by reinforcement learning until a neural network performs it extremely well. — tap to centre the map on it A verifiable task can be optimised by reinforcement learning until a neural network performs it extremely well. Last stated 10 months ago
17 Nov 2025
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-11-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Capability does not generalise for free: a model that will move mountains on an agentic task still tells the same bad joke it told five years ago. — tap to centre the map on it Capability does not generalise for free: a model that will move mountains on an agentic task still tells the same bad joke it told five years ago. Last stated 6 months ago
20 Mar 2026
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2026-03-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Humans barely use reinforcement learning for intelligence — what RL they do use goes into motor tasks, not problem solving. — tap to centre the map on it Humans barely use reinforcement learning for intelligence — what RL they do use goes into motor tasks, not problem solving. Last stated 11 months ago
17 Oct 2025
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-10-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost. — tap to centre the map on it A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost. Last stated 5 months ago
1 Apr 2026
TP
Thuan Pham — holds since 2026-04-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A crewed rocket cannot be made safe by making the booster reliable, so the only real way to improve safety is to carry an escape system. — tap to centre the map on it A crewed rocket cannot be made safe by making the booster reliable, so the only real way to improve safety is to carry an escape system. Last stated 3 years ago
14 Dec 2023
JB
Jeff Bezos — holds since 2023-12-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A monopolist that can no longer grow by winning new users can only grow by making its product worse for the users it already has. — tap to centre the map on it A monopolist that can no longer grow by winning new users can only grow by making its product worse for the users it already has. Last stated 3 years ago
28 Jul 2023
CD
Cory Doctorow — holds since 2023-07-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Formalising a proof in Lean currently takes about ten times the effort of writing it out: doable, but annoying. — tap to centre the map on it Formalising a proof in Lean currently takes about ten times the effort of writing it out: doable, but annoying. Last stated a year ago
14 Jun 2025
TT
Terence Tao — holds since 2025-06-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Full formal verification is a waste of money for most software: near-perfect is reachable with ordinary techniques at a fraction of the cost. — tap to centre the map on it Full formal verification is a waste of money for most software: near-perfect is reachable with ordinary techniques at a fraction of the cost. Last stated 8 years ago
21 Jan 2019
HW
Hillel Wayne — holds since 2019-01-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Lean and tools like GitHub will let experimental mathematics scale far beyond what one mathematician's spaghetti code allows today. — tap to centre the map on it Lean and tools like GitHub will let experimental mathematics scale far beyond what one mathematician's spaghetti code allows today. Last stated a year ago
14 Jun 2025
TT
Terence Tao — holds since 2025-06-14 — tap for who they are