How cheap does solar get, and what does that change?
How cheap does solar get, and what does that change?
Panel prices keep falling with every doubling; they disagree about what follows from that.
25 dated claims from 6 people · 5 views · 1 change of mind · most recent 3 Sept 2026
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Their wordsBut politics aside, what’s notable about that 2001 report, put together by men who regarded themselves as hard-headed realists, is that it envisaged an energy future reliant almost entirely on fossil fuels plus a bit of nuclear energy.
Their wordsPer doubling of production, costs have fallen a consistent 30-40% since 1970, but it’s only in the last few years that this price has become competitive with legacy electricity generation
Ramez NaamAuthor and clean-energy investor who has been publishing…The data paint an incredible picture: One that shows the price of solar electricity from utility-scale systems dropping by anywhere from 30-40% with each doubling of cumulative solar deployment.↗Solar's Future is Insanely Cheap (2020)rameznaam.com · 14 May 2020
Their wordsThe data paint an incredible picture: One that shows the price of solar electricity from utility-scale systems dropping by anywhere from 30-40% with each doubling of cumulative solar deployment.
Their wordsA number of commentators have consistently predicted that solar cost improvements will level out “this year” since about 1990, and yet if anything deployment, cost decline, and the learning rate have only improved.
Ramez NaamAuthor and clean-energy investor who has been publishing…We can use the last decade to predict the future prices of solar power. Not by looking at the cost of solar as a function of time, but by looking at the cost of solar as a function of cumulative scale of the solar industry.↗Solar's Future is Insanely Cheap (2020)rameznaam.com · 14 May 2020
Their wordsWe can use the last decade to predict the future prices of solar power. Not by looking at the cost of solar as a function of time, but by looking at the cost of solar as a function of cumulative scale of the solar industry.
Their wordsI am sure that photovoltaic panels will become ever cheaper; I’m also sure that solar panels will become ever less energy-intensive to manufacture, so their energy yield ratio will improve.
Their wordsthere are many people who still refuse to believe that renewables can be practical even as renewables keep growing around the world, in fact accounting for the bulk of growth in electricity generation
Casey HandmerPhysicist, formerly at NASA's Jet Propulsion LaboratoryFollowing current trends to second order, >95% of humanity’s energy needs will be downstream of solar panels by 2042, just 19 years away, and alongside enormous expansion in direct use of electricity, fuel consumption will grow to more than $25T/year in equivalent dollars.↗Radical Energy Abundancecaseyhandmer.wordpress.com · 11 Oct 2023All korrents from this piece
Their wordsFollowing current trends to second order, >95% of humanity’s energy needs will be downstream of solar panels by 2042, just 19 years away, and alongside enormous expansion in direct use of electricity, fuel consumption will grow to more than $25T/year in equivalent dollars.
Their wordsThis incredible pace of solar cost decline, with average prices in sunny parts of the world down to a penny or two by 2030 or 2035, is just remarkable.
Their wordsOn the flip side, these captive solar power plants will be curtailing approximately 75% of their generated power and will be able to provide net power on all but a few days per year.
Their wordsFor loads below $1000/kW, intermittent operation with some modest solar array oversizing is the winning strategy. Above $1000/kW, we charge and discharge batteries daily to run them.
Their wordsA battery that’s discharging every day gets great utilization, but one that’s only there in case the sun doesn’t come up for two days in a row, barely gets used.
Casey HandmerPhysicist, formerly at NASA's Jet Propulsion LaboratoryThe logical end state of this displacement is not some hybrid grid with around 20% solar backed up by spinning generation, but a much more dynamic, versatile grid with around 200% solar generation and hours to days or weeks of battery storage, fully decoupling time of generation and consumption.↗Radical Energy Abundancecaseyhandmer.wordpress.com · 11 Oct 2023All korrents from this piece
Their wordsThe logical end state of this displacement is not some hybrid grid with around 20% solar backed up by spinning generation, but a much more dynamic, versatile grid with around 200% solar generation and hours to days or weeks of battery storage, fully decoupling time of generation and consumption.
Casey HandmerPhysicist, formerly at NASA's Jet Propulsion LaboratoryThe only highly populated industrial country unable to trivially meet its electricity and synthetic fuel needs with solar alone is the United Kingdom, due primarily to a high population density and high latitude. The Nordic and Baltic countries are tiny by comparison. Among other problems, the UK needs to decide if it wants the future where energy is cheap and it is rich, or the future where energy is expensive and it is poor. If the former, it is time to get serious about large scale deployment of wind power, using home-grown vertically integrated technology at prices as low as $10/MWh.↗Energy Predictions 2025caseyhandmer.wordpress.com · 8 Dec 2025All korrents from this piece
Their wordsThe only highly populated industrial country unable to trivially meet its electricity and synthetic fuel needs with solar alone is the United Kingdom, due primarily to a high population density and high latitude. The Nordic and Baltic countries are tiny by comparison. Among other problems, the UK needs to decide if it wants the future where energy is cheap and it is rich, or the future where energy is expensive and it is poor. If the former, it is time to get serious about large scale deployment of wind power, using home-grown vertically integrated technology at prices as low as $10/MWh.
Their wordsif we covered the windiest 10% of the country with windmills (delivering 2 W/m2 ), we would be able to generate 20 kWh/d per person, which is half of the power used by driving an average fossil-fuel car 50 km per day.
Their wordsWhile wave power may be useful for small communities on remote islands, I suspect it can’t play a significant role in the
solution to Britain’s sustainable energy problem.
Their wordsJust like Britain, Europe can’t live on its own renewables. So if the aim is to get off fossil fuels, Europe needs nuclear power, or solar power in other people’s deserts (as discussed on p179), or both.
Noah SmithEconomics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletterBecause solar has, broadly speaking, won the technological race. Intermittency was the last big problem, and batteries have gotten good and cheap enough to make solar reliable.↗Why you won’t get a flying carnoahpinion.blog · 3 Sept 2026
Their wordsBecause solar has, broadly speaking, won the technological race. Intermittency was the last big problem, and batteries have gotten good and cheap enough to make solar reliable.
Their wordsBut, China mainly dominates these markets because it has produced a long-term industrial strategy for these technologies and has honed an optimised, modern supply chain as a result.
Their wordsThat’s because most clean energy jobs are in deployment and maintenance rather than manufacturing, and since higher costs slow down the rollout of renewables, increasing prices reduces the total number of people working in clean energy (even if the number working in manufacturing increases).
MacKay concluded that Britain cannot live on its own renewables at current consumption. Handmer agrees the UK is the hard case and reaches the opposite conclusion: it is the one rich country that cannot do it with solar, and it can do it with wind, at prices he puts as low as $10/MWh. One says the island does not have the resource; the other says it has the wrong plan.
MacKay said Europe cannot live on its own renewables and needs nuclear, desert solar, or both. Handmer expects the end state to be roughly 200% solar generation with hours to weeks of battery storage and no spinning backup at all. Fifteen years and two cost curves separate them, and the thing MacKay held constant — that storage would stay expensive — is exactly what Handmer says changed.
MacKay concluded in 2008 that Europe cannot live on its own renewables and needs nuclear power, solar from other people’s deserts, or both. Smith says in 2026 that solar with batteries has won the technological race and passed nuclear for most uses, because storage solved intermittency. Eighteen years separate them and MacKay’s arithmetic was about land and flux rather than cost, so the pair is a tension rather than a refutation — but it is the most consequential disagreement in this archive about what to build.
Data centres end up net power suppliers only because they are built the way Handmer says high-capex loads should be built: overbuild the array rather than buy batteries for the rare bad day. The spilled 75% that becomes the neighbourhood’s power is that overbuild.
The forecast that almost all of humanity’s energy is downstream of solar panels by 2042 is an extrapolation, and what it extrapolates is the learning rate. If the 30-40% decline per doubling stops, the date goes with it.