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← With r-g near zero, any advanced economy running a primary deficit…
17 connected korrents · 13 moments from 11 Feb 2019 to 12 Sept 2026. Nearly all of them are about interest rates .
Everything filed under public debt
public debt
Everything filed under inflation
inflation
Everything filed under investing
investing
Everything filed under optimism
optimism
Everything filed under fiscal policy
fiscal policy
Everything filed under quantitative easing
quantitative easing Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: With r-g near zero, any advanced economy running a primary deficit will see its debt-to-GDP ratio rise once existing debt is refinanced at current rates. With r-g near zero, any advanced economy running a primary deficit will see its debt-to-GDP ratio rise once existing debt is refinanced at current rates. Last stated 3 years ago
6 Nov 2023
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2023-11-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: When safe interest rates are expected to remain below growth rates for a long time, rolling over public debt without later tax increases is feasible and public debt may carry no fiscal cost. — tap to centre the map on it When safe interest rates are expected to remain below growth rates for a long time, rolling over public debt without later tax increases is feasible and public debt may carry no fiscal cost. Last stated 3 years ago
6 Nov 2023
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2019-02-11 — tap for who they are
OB
Olivier Blanchard — no longer holds since 2023-11-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Higher real interest rates reflect a more optimistic collective view of future economic abundance. — tap to centre the map on it Higher real interest rates reflect a more optimistic collective view of future economic abundance. Last stated a month ago
12 Sept 2026
BH
Byrne Hobart — holds since 2026-09-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: There is no universal debt-to-GDP threshold beyond which government debt becomes unsustainable; sustainability depends on factors like the real interest rate. — tap to centre the map on it There is no universal debt-to-GDP threshold beyond which government debt becomes unsustainable; sustainability depends on factors like the real interest rate. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A longer average debt maturity protects a government from temporary interest-rate spikes and gives it more time to adjust to permanent rate increases. — tap to centre the map on it A longer average debt maturity protects a government from temporary interest-rate spikes and gives it more time to adjust to permanent rate increases. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Raising interest rates cannot meaningfully cool inflation when structural fiscal deficits, not private-sector lending, are its main driver. — tap to centre the map on it Raising interest rates cannot meaningfully cool inflation when structural fiscal deficits, not private-sector lending, are its main driver. Last stated 2 years ago
8 Jan 2025
LA
Lyn Alden — holds since 2025-01-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The probability of a self-fulfilling bad equilibrium in sovereign debt markets depends little on the debt level itself, but is much reduced by a rule linking the primary balance to debt service increases. — tap to centre the map on it The probability of a self-fulfilling bad equilibrium in sovereign debt markets depends little on the debt level itself, but is much reduced by a rule linking the primary balance to debt service increases. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The late stage of the Big Debt Cycle shows itself as long rates leading rates up, the currency falling against gold, and the treasury shortening maturities. — tap to centre the map on it The late stage of the Big Debt Cycle shows itself as long rates leading rates up, the currency falling against gold, and the treasury shortening maturities. Last stated 2 months ago
21 Aug 2026
RD
Ray Dalio — holds since 2026-08-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A fiscal expansion when the economy is already at potential output prompts monetary tightening that dampens or eliminates its effect on output. — tap to centre the map on it A fiscal expansion when the economy is already at potential output prompts monetary tightening that dampens or eliminates its effect on output. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Since the Global Financial Crisis, unconventional monetary policy has become the dominant force driving asset prices, more than fundamentals. — tap to centre the map on it Since the Global Financial Crisis, unconventional monetary policy has become the dominant force driving asset prices, more than fundamentals. Last stated 2 years ago
24 Sept 2024
LA
Lyn Alden — holds since 2024-09-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. — tap to centre the map on it A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Canceling government bonds held by a central bank creates no fiscal space, because the reduction in government interest payments is exactly offset by an equal reduction in the profits the central bank remits to the government. — tap to centre the map on it Canceling government bonds held by a central bank creates no fiscal space, because the reduction in government interest payments is exactly offset by an equal reduction in the profits the central bank remits to the government. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost. — tap to centre the map on it A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost. Last stated 7 months ago
1 Apr 2026
TP
Thuan Pham — holds since 2026-04-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An economy on a fixed, unprintable base money supply can sustain rapid long-run growth with zero cumulative price inflation. — tap to centre the map on it An economy on a fixed, unprintable base money supply can sustain rapid long-run growth with zero cumulative price inflation. Last stated 7 months ago
11 Mar 2026
LA
Lyn Alden — holds since 2026-03-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Cash welfare benefits contributed at least somewhat to the inflation of 2021-2022. — tap to centre the map on it Cash welfare benefits contributed at least somewhat to the inflation of 2021-2022. Last stated 4 years ago
25 Jul 2022
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2022-07-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now. — tap to centre the map on it A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now. Last stated 10 months ago
9 Dec 2025
HM
Howard Marks — holds since 2025-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A founder who does not know their own goal dies by a thousand compromises and ends up running a company they do not want to work at. — tap to centre the map on it A founder who does not know their own goal dies by a thousand compromises and ends up running a company they do not want to work at. Last stated 5 months ago
2 Jun 2026
MP
Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A margin only counts while you are still investing heavily, because cutting the investment raises this year's margin and lowers the long-term one. — tap to centre the map on it A margin only counts while you are still investing heavily, because cutting the investment raises this year's margin and lowers the long-term one. Last stated a year ago
16 Jul 2025
JD
Jamie Dimon — holds since 2025-07-16 — tap for who they are
At the centre
With r-g near zero, any advanced economy running a primary deficit will see its debt-to-GDP ratio rise once existing debt is refinanced at current rates.
Holds Read this korrent →
When safe interest rates are expected to remain below growth rates for a long time, rolling over public debt without later tax increases is feasible and public debt may carry no fiscal cost.
No longer holds
Higher real interest rates reflect a more optimistic collective view of future economic abundance.
Holds
There is no universal debt-to-GDP threshold beyond which government debt becomes unsustainable; sustainability depends on factors like the real interest rate.
Holds
A longer average debt maturity protects a government from temporary interest-rate spikes and gives it more time to adjust to permanent rate increases.
Holds
Raising interest rates cannot meaningfully cool inflation when structural fiscal deficits, not private-sector lending, are its main driver.
Holds
The probability of a self-fulfilling bad equilibrium in sovereign debt markets depends little on the debt level itself, but is much reduced by a rule linking the primary balance to debt service increases.
Holds
The late stage of the Big Debt Cycle shows itself as long rates leading rates up, the currency falling against gold, and the treasury shortening maturities.
Holds
A fiscal expansion when the economy is already at potential output prompts monetary tightening that dampens or eliminates its effect on output.
Holds
Since the Global Financial Crisis, unconventional monetary policy has become the dominant force driving asset prices, more than fundamentals.
Holds
A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate.
Holds
Canceling government bonds held by a central bank creates no fiscal space, because the reduction in government interest payments is exactly offset by an equal reduction in the profits the central bank remits to the government.
Holds
A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost.
Holds
An economy on a fixed, unprintable base money supply can sustain rapid long-run growth with zero cumulative price inflation.
Holds
Cash welfare benefits contributed at least somewhat to the inflation of 2021-2022.
Holds
A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now.
Holds
A founder who does not know their own goal dies by a thousand compromises and ends up running a company they do not want to work at.
Holds
A margin only counts while you are still investing heavily, because cutting the investment raises this year's margin and lowers the long-term one.
Holds