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← When safe interest rates are expected to remain below growth rates for…
17 connected korrents · 13 moments on record from 5 Sept 2010 to 21 Aug 2026.
Everything filed under interest rates
interest rates
Everything filed under America
America
Everything filed under public debt
public debt
Everything filed under inflation
inflation
Everything filed under government
government Cannot both be true Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: When safe interest rates are expected to remain below growth rates for a long time, rolling over public debt without later tax increases is feasible and public debt may carry no fiscal cost. When safe interest rates are expected to remain below growth rates for a long time, rolling over public debt without later tax increases is feasible and public debt may carry no fiscal cost. Last stated 3 years ago
6 Nov 2023
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2019-02-11 — tap for who they are
OB
Olivier Blanchard — no longer holds since 2023-11-06 — tap for who they are
Cannot both be true: America borrowed cheaply from the world and spent it on consumption rather than investment, exactly as Greece did. — tap to centre the map on it America borrowed cheaply from the world and spent it on consumption rather than investment, exactly as Greece did. Last stated a year ago
14 Apr 2025
JC
John H. Cochrane — holds since 2025-04-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The lower a country's neutral interest rate, the smaller the fiscal and welfare costs of public debt and the larger its welfare benefits. — tap to centre the map on it The lower a country's neutral interest rate, the smaller the fiscal and welfare costs of public debt and the larger its welfare benefits. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: During post-2008 fiscal consolidation, the costs of high public debt were overestimated and fiscal multipliers were underestimated, understating the output costs of austerity. — tap to centre the map on it During post-2008 fiscal consolidation, the costs of high public debt were overestimated and fiscal multipliers were underestimated, understating the output costs of austerity. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The main obstacle to sound fiscal policy debate is a widespread, quasi-religious belief that public debt is inherently bad. — tap to centre the map on it The main obstacle to sound fiscal policy debate is a widespread, quasi-religious belief that public debt is inherently bad. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A bank should be managed against the fat tails it can imagine, not against the stress test its regulator hands it. — tap to centre the map on it A bank should be managed against the fat tails it can imagine, not against the stress test its regulator hands it. Last stated a year ago
16 Jul 2025
JD
Jamie Dimon — holds since 2025-07-16 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. — tap to centre the map on it A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A fiscal expansion when the economy is already at potential output prompts monetary tightening that dampens or eliminates its effect on output. — tap to centre the map on it A fiscal expansion when the economy is already at potential output prompts monetary tightening that dampens or eliminates its effect on output. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A government's debt dynamics are a household's or a company's, except that it can print money and tax -- and those two powers are what change the ending. — tap to centre the map on it A government's debt dynamics are a household's or a company's, except that it can print money and tax -- and those two powers are what change the ending. Last stated 3 weeks ago
21 Aug 2026
RD
Ray Dalio — holds since 2026-08-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A longer average debt maturity protects a government from temporary interest-rate spikes and gives it more time to adjust to permanent rate increases. — tap to centre the map on it A longer average debt maturity protects a government from temporary interest-rate spikes and gives it more time to adjust to permanent rate increases. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Canceling government bonds held by a central bank creates no fiscal space, because the reduction in government interest payments is exactly offset by an equal reduction in the profits the central bank remits to the government. — tap to centre the map on it Canceling government bonds held by a central bank creates no fiscal space, because the reduction in government interest payments is exactly offset by an equal reduction in the profits the central bank remits to the government. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Aggressive quantitative easing should raise long-term interest rates, because effective monetary stimulus raises them. — tap to centre the map on it Aggressive quantitative easing should raise long-term interest rates, because effective monetary stimulus raises them. Last stated 16 years ago
6 Sept 2010
SS
Scott Sumner — holds since 2010-09-05 — tap for who they are
SS
Scott Sumner — no longer holds since 2010-09-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Central bank purchases of government bonds are not bailouts and do not automatically cause inflation, since they only change the composition of the consolidated government's liabilities, not their total. — tap to centre the map on it Central bank purchases of government bonds are not bailouts and do not automatically cause inflation, since they only change the composition of the consolidated government's liabilities, not their total. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost. — tap to centre the map on it A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost. Last stated 5 months ago
1 Apr 2026
TP
Thuan Pham — holds since 2026-04-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Cash welfare benefits contributed at least somewhat to the inflation of 2021-2022. — tap to centre the map on it Cash welfare benefits contributed at least somewhat to the inflation of 2021-2022. Last stated 4 years ago
25 Jul 2022
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2022-07-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Data centres had not raised the average American household's electricity bill as of 2025; inflation and the gas-price shock did. — tap to centre the map on it Data centres had not raised the average American household's electricity bill as of 2025; inflation and the gas-price shock did. Last stated 11 months ago
10 Oct 2025
AM
Andy Masley — holds since 2025-10-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: American shipyards are unproductive rather than expensive: their workers are paid about what Korean and Japanese shipyard workers are paid. — tap to centre the map on it American shipyards are unproductive rather than expensive: their workers are paid about what Korean and Japanese shipyard workers are paid. Last stated 3 years ago
3 Jan 2024
AV
Austin Vernon — holds since 2024-01-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Commercial shipbuilding keeps moving to whichever country has the cheapest labour, and America has never been that country. — tap to centre the map on it Commercial shipbuilding keeps moving to whichever country has the cheapest labour, and America has never been that country. Last stated 2 years ago
5 Sept 2024
BP
Brian Potter — holds since 2024-09-05 — tap for who they are
At the centre
When safe interest rates are expected to remain below growth rates for a long time, rolling over public debt without later tax increases is feasible and public debt may carry no fiscal cost.
No longer holds Read this korrent →
America borrowed cheaply from the world and spent it on consumption rather than investment, exactly as Greece did.
Holds JC John H. Cochrane
The lower a country's neutral interest rate, the smaller the fiscal and welfare costs of public debt and the larger its welfare benefits.
Holds
During post-2008 fiscal consolidation, the costs of high public debt were overestimated and fiscal multipliers were underestimated, understating the output costs of austerity.
Holds
The main obstacle to sound fiscal policy debate is a widespread, quasi-religious belief that public debt is inherently bad.
Holds
A bank should be managed against the fat tails it can imagine, not against the stress test its regulator hands it.
Holds JD Jamie Dimon
A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate.
Holds
A fiscal expansion when the economy is already at potential output prompts monetary tightening that dampens or eliminates its effect on output.
Holds
A government's debt dynamics are a household's or a company's, except that it can print money and tax -- and those two powers are what change the ending.
Holds
A longer average debt maturity protects a government from temporary interest-rate spikes and gives it more time to adjust to permanent rate increases.
Holds
Canceling government bonds held by a central bank creates no fiscal space, because the reduction in government interest payments is exactly offset by an equal reduction in the profits the central bank remits to the government.
Holds
Aggressive quantitative easing should raise long-term interest rates, because effective monetary stimulus raises them.
No longer holds SS Scott Sumner
Central bank purchases of government bonds are not bailouts and do not automatically cause inflation, since they only change the composition of the consolidated government's liabilities, not their total.
Holds
A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost.
Holds TP Thuan Pham
Cash welfare benefits contributed at least somewhat to the inflation of 2021-2022.
Holds
Data centres had not raised the average American household's electricity bill as of 2025; inflation and the gas-price shock did.
Holds AM Andy Masley
American shipyards are unproductive rather than expensive: their workers are paid about what Korean and Japanese shipyard workers are paid.
Holds AV Austin Vernon
Commercial shipbuilding keeps moving to whichever country has the cheapest labour, and America has never been that country.
Holds BP Brian Potter