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← Trained, habitual use of simple probability math is one standard antidote to foolish optimism

17 connected korrents · 16 moments from 14 Apr 2011 to 21 Sept 2026. Nearly all of them are about optimism.

Everything filed under mental models mental models Everything filed under batteries batteries Everything filed under agency agency Everything filed under LLMs LLMs Everything filed under AI alignment AI alignment Everything filed under discipline discipline Everything filed under startups startups Everything filed under Russia Russia Everything filed under startups startups Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: Trained, habitual use of simple probability math is one standard antidote to foolish optimism Trained, habitual use of simpleprobability math is one standard antidoteto foolish optimism CM Charlie Munger — holds since c. 2005 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI safety worriers and AI optimists both believe AI will be a hugely transformative economic success, unlike the AI-bubble skeptics. — tap to centre the map on it AI safety worriers and AI optimistsboth believe AI will be a hugelytransformative economic success,unlike the AI-bubble skeptics. Last stated 4 weeks ago 10 Sept 2026 MY Matthew Yglesias — holds since 2026-09-10 — tap for who they are Same subject: America is a country that rewards first-principles thinkers and builders and encourages reinvention despite cynicism. — tap to centre the map on it America is a country that rewardsfirst-principles thinkers andbuilders and encourages reinventiondespite cynicism. Last stated 3 months ago 5 Jul 2026 SW swyx — holds since 2026-07-05 — tap for who they are Same subject: As soon as founder mode is an established idea people will misuse it: founders excusing an inability to delegate, and managers deciding to act like founders. — tap to centre the map on it As soon as founder mode is anestablished idea people will misuseit: founders excusing an inabilityto delegate, and managers decidingto act like founders. Last stated 2 years ago 1 Sept 2024 PG Paul Graham — holds since 2024-09-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: Battery-electric airliners do not work even on optimistic assumptions, and the arithmetic said so before anyone built one. — tap to centre the map on it Battery-electric airliners do notwork even on optimistic assumptions,and the arithmetic said so beforeanyone built one. Last stated 6 years ago 2 Apr 2021 BF Bjorn Fehrm — holds since 2021-04-02 — tap for who they are Same subject: Being optimistic about AI as it currently exists requires a degree of privilege. — tap to centre the map on it Being optimistic about AI as itcurrently exists requires a degreeof privilege. Last stated 10 months ago 3 Dec 2025 JC Josh Collinsworth — holds since 2025-12-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: Believing that Trump might yet help Ukraine is not harmless optimism: it is part of a manoeuvre that buys Putin time. — tap to centre the map on it Believing that Trump might yet helpUkraine is not harmless optimism: itis part of a manoeuvre that buysPutin time. Last stated 2 months ago 23 Aug 2026 PO Phillips P. OBrien — holds since 2026-08-23 — tap for who they are Same subject: Building a startup requires enough optimism to see past a problem toward a future solution that makes things better. — tap to centre the map on it Building a startup requires enoughoptimism to see past a problemtoward a future solution that makesthings better. Last stated a year ago 16 Sept 2025 JE Jason Evanish — holds since 2025-09-16 — tap for who they are Same subject: Connecting a conversational LLM to systems that have real-world consequences is likely to cause real harm, because the model is trained on human text and will behave as unpredictably as humans do. — tap to centre the map on it Connecting a conversational LLM tosystems that have real-worldconsequences is likely to cause realharm, because the model is trainedon human text and will behave asunpredictably as humans do. Last stated a year ago 4 Jun 2025 AR Armin Ronacher — holds since 2023-02-17 — tap for who they are AR Armin Ronacher — no longer holds since 2025-06-04 — tap for who they are Same subject: A difficult problem is better thought through both forwards and backward than in one direction only. — tap to centre the map on it A difficult problem is betterthought through both forwards andbackward than in one direction only. Last stated 13 years ago 28 Oct 2013 SP Shane Parrish — holds since 2013-10-28 — tap for who they are Same subject: A few dozen mental models are enough to get a firm grasp of how the world works. — tap to centre the map on it A few dozen mental models are enoughto get a firm grasp of how the worldworks. Last stated 9 years ago by 12 Aug 2017 JC James Clear — holds since 2017-08-12 — tap for who they are Same subject: A map is not the territory it represents, but if it is correct it shares the territory's structure, which is what makes it useful. — tap to centre the map on it A map is not the territory itrepresents, but if it is correct itshares the territory's structure,which is what makes it useful. AK Alfred Korzybski — holds since c. 1933 — tap for who they are Same subject: A business can use stewardship of a community publication as a top-of-funnel customer acquisition strategy without needing the publication itself to generate revenue directly. — tap to centre the map on it A business can use stewardship of acommunity publication as atop-of-funnel customer acquisitionstrategy without needing thepublication itself to generaterevenue directly. Last stated 3 weeks ago 21 Sept 2026 CC Chris Coyier — holds since 2026-09-21 — tap for who they are Same subject: A CEO can master both peacetime and wartime leadership, but it is hard — tap to centre the map on it A CEO can master both peacetime andwartime leadership, but it is hard Last stated 15 years ago 14 Apr 2011 BH Ben Horowitz — holds since 2011-04-14 — tap for who they are Same subject: A company can produce a good commercial without a large budget — tap to centre the map on it A company can produce a goodcommercial without a large budget Last stated 4 years ago 21 Mar 2023 DH David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2023-03-21 — tap for who they are Same subject: A data centre powered by solar and batteries alone needs an array so oversized that the design is not worth building. — tap to centre the map on it A data centre powered by solar andbatteries alone needs an array sooversized that the design is notworth building. Last stated 2 years ago 18 Apr 2024 AV Austin Vernon — holds since 2024-04-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: About a fifth of the US grid could be freed for data centres just by covering the yearly peak with batteries or peaker plants. — tap to centre the map on it About a fifth of the US grid couldbe freed for data centres just bycovering the yearly peak withbatteries or peaker plants. Last stated 7 months ago 13 Mar 2026 DP Dylan Patel — holds since 2026-03-13 — tap for who they are Same subject: An off-grid data centre can delete its uninterruptible power supplies entirely, because the battery bank outside already is one. — tap to centre the map on it An off-grid data centre can deleteits uninterruptible power suppliesentirely, because the battery bankoutside already is one. Last stated 2 years ago 18 Apr 2024 AV Austin Vernon — holds since 2024-04-18 — tap for who they are
same subject or similar wordinga cloud: claims about one subject, named for itbar: when it was last stated, on a scale from 2011 to today (stretched back to the oldest claim here) — full is todaya face: someone who holds the claim — tap it for who they arefaded, dashed ring: they no longer hold it — they changed their mind

At the centre Trained, habitual use of simple probability math is one standard antidote to foolish optimism Last stated c. 2005 Holds Charlie Munger Read this korrent →