korrents

Our readingWhat is a korrent?

Trained, habitual use of simple probability math is one standard antidote to foolish optimism

Drawn from what Charlie Munger said

Subjectsoptimismmental models
What these subjects mean

optimism Expecting things to go well: whether it is what gets things built, or a bias that forecasts keep paying for.

mental models Thinking tools borrowed across disciplines: inversion, second-order effects, circles of competence, probabilities, incentives.

Mental modelProbabilistic thinking

On the topicWhich mental models help you think better?under our view: Think in probabilities, and bet big only when the odds are yours

What Charlie Munger actually said

  1. Charlie Munger Warren Buffett's business partner and vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway
    One standard antidote to foolish optimism is trained, habitual use of the simple probability math of Fermat and Pascal, taught in my youth to high school sophomores.

    Where this was said

    ↗The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (revised text, 2005)fs.blog

    c. 2005

    All 17 korrents from this piecethis one is 9th

Added to korrents 9 Oct 2026 · How quotes work · Something wrong? Tell us

Do you hold this korrent?Do you also believe this?

I hold this too

Related korrents

Shared subject first, then similar wording. They may agree or disagree.

See this claim on the map