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← There is no long decline in human family size: once child survival is…
17 connected korrents · 11 moments from 30 May 2013 to 20 Sept 2026.
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demographics
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family
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Read this korrent: There is no long decline in human family size: once child survival is accounted for, the two-century downward trend disappears.
There is no long decline in human family size: once child survival is accounted for, the two-century downward trend disappears.
Last stated a year ago
15 Jul 2025
LS
Lyman Stone — holds since 2025-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The global fall in births over the past two centuries is mostly explained by falling child mortality, and that part of the question is settled. — tap to centre the map on it
The global fall in births over the past two centuries is mostly explained by falling child mortality, and that part of the question is settled.
Last stated 2 months ago
20 Aug 2026
LS
Lyman Stone — holds since 2026-08-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: People aim at a number of surviving children rather than a number of births, so falling child mortality lets births fall without anyone wanting a smaller family. — tap to centre the map on it
People aim at a number of surviving children rather than a number of births, so falling child mortality lets births fall without anyone wanting a smaller family.
Last stated a year ago
15 Jul 2025
LS
Lyman Stone — holds since 2025-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The total fertility rate is a culturally biased measure, because societies substitute between abortion, infanticide and contraception to reach the same family size. — tap to centre the map on it
The total fertility rate is a culturally biased measure, because societies substitute between abortion, infanticide and contraception to reach the same family size.
Last stated a year ago
15 Jul 2025
LS
Lyman Stone — holds since 2025-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Population size is not what limited human adaptation; time is. A selection coefficient of half a percent works as well in a thousand people as in a million. — tap to centre the map on it
Population size is not what limited human adaptation; time is. A selection coefficient of half a percent works as well in a thousand people as in a million.
Last stated 6 months ago
8 May 2026
DR
David Reich — holds since 2026-05-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The theory that birth rates fall because home life has not caught up with women's opportunities at work is not supported by the data. — tap to centre the map on it
The theory that birth rates fall because home life has not caught up with women's opportunities at work is not supported by the data.
Last stated 2 months ago
20 Aug 2026
LS
Lyman Stone — holds since 2026-08-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A model fitted only to trends in its own outcome cannot forecast anything, because it contains no variable anyone could change. — tap to centre the map on it
A model fitted only to trends in its own outcome cannot forecast anything, because it contains no variable anyone could change.
Last stated 2 months ago
20 Aug 2026
LS
Lyman Stone — holds since 2026-08-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Culture can be changed, so falling birth rates are a fixable problem rather than a one-way ratchet of modernity. — tap to centre the map on it
Culture can be changed, so falling birth rates are a fixable problem rather than a one-way ratchet of modernity.
Last stated a year ago
1 Jul 2025
AE
Alice Evans — holds since 2025-07-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Humans collapse over the course of a life exactly as models do; children say shocking things because they have not overfitted yet. — tap to centre the map on it
Humans collapse over the course of a life exactly as models do; children say shocking things because they have not overfitted yet.
Last stated a year ago
17 Oct 2025
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-10-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A liberal divorce law is wise — tap to centre the map on it
A liberal divorce law is wise
ES
Elizabeth Cady Stanton — holds since c. 1898 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A partner's difficult trait becomes tolerable only if their good qualities outweigh it and you don't feel alone dealing with its effects. — tap to centre the map on it
A partner's difficult trait becomes tolerable only if their good qualities outweigh it and you don't feel alone dealing with its effects.
Last stated a month ago
20 Sept 2026
HN
Haley Nahman — holds since 2026-09-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A person with a spouse and children has given hostages to fortune, since they hinder great enterprises — tap to centre the map on it
A person with a spouse and children has given hostages to fortune, since they hinder great enterprises
FB
Francis Bacon — holds since c. 1597–1625 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A primitive science of insect control has armed itself with modern weapons and turned them against the earth — tap to centre the map on it
A primitive science of insect control has armed itself with modern weapons and turned them against the earth
RC
Rachel Carson — holds since c. 1962 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A romantic, low-yield farming system would need far more land and would produce more hunger, not less. — tap to centre the map on it
A romantic, low-yield farming system would need far more land and would produce more hunger, not less.
Last stated 3 years ago
28 May 2023
GM
George Monbiot — holds since 2023-05-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Amazon is a relatively environmentally clean company on a per-dollar basis because of its operational efficiency. — tap to centre the map on it
Amazon is a relatively environmentally clean company on a per-dollar basis because of its operational efficiency.
Last stated a year ago
7 Oct 2025
MM
Mr. Money Mustache — holds since 2025-10-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A career path becomes popular when it offers clear, prescribed rules that can simply be decoded and followed. — tap to centre the map on it
A career path becomes popular when it offers clear, prescribed rules that can simply be decoded and followed.
Last stated 7 months ago
28 Mar 2026
PM
Paul Millerd — holds since 2026-03-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A clear path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants is compatible with enforcing the law — tap to centre the map on it
A clear path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants is compatible with enforcing the law
Last stated 13 years ago
30 May 2013
OW
Oprah Winfrey — holds since 2013-05-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country benefits from immigration in proportion to whether the people arriving are net contributors who assimilate. — tap to centre the map on it
A country benefits from immigration in proportion to whether the people arriving are net contributors who assimilate.
Last stated 2 months ago
26 Aug 2026
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
same subject or similar wording a cloud: claims about one subject, named for it bar: when it was last stated, on a scale from 2013 to today (stretched back to the oldest claim here) — full is today a face: someone who holds the claim — tap it for who they are
At the centre
There is no long decline in human family size: once child survival is accounted for, the two-century downward trend disappears.
Last stated 15 Jul 2025 · a year ago
Holds Lyman Stone
Read this korrent →
Similar wording
The global fall in births over the past two centuries is mostly explained by falling child mortality, and that part of the question is settled.
Last stated 20 Aug 2026 · 2 months ago
Holds Lyman Stone
Similar wording
People aim at a number of surviving children rather than a number of births, so falling child mortality lets births fall without anyone wanting a smaller family.
Last stated 15 Jul 2025 · a year ago
Holds Lyman Stone
Similar wording
The total fertility rate is a culturally biased measure, because societies substitute between abortion, infanticide and contraception to reach the same family size.
Last stated 15 Jul 2025 · a year ago
Holds Lyman Stone
Similar wording
Population size is not what limited human adaptation; time is. A selection coefficient of half a percent works as well in a thousand people as in a million.
Last stated 8 May 2026 · 6 months ago
Holds David Reich
Similar wording
The theory that birth rates fall because home life has not caught up with women's opportunities at work is not supported by the data.
Last stated 20 Aug 2026 · 2 months ago
Holds Lyman Stone
Similar wording
A model fitted only to trends in its own outcome cannot forecast anything, because it contains no variable anyone could change.
Last stated 20 Aug 2026 · 2 months ago
Holds Lyman Stone
Similar wording
Culture can be changed, so falling birth rates are a fixable problem rather than a one-way ratchet of modernity.
Last stated 1 Jul 2025 · a year ago
Holds Alice Evans
Similar wording
Humans collapse over the course of a life exactly as models do; children say shocking things because they have not overfitted yet.
Last stated 17 Oct 2025 · a year ago
Holds Andrej Karpathy
Same subject: family
A liberal divorce law is wise
Last stated c. 1898
Holds Elizabeth Cady Stanton
Same subject: family
A partner's difficult trait becomes tolerable only if their good qualities outweigh it and you don't feel alone dealing with its effects.
Last stated 20 Sept 2026 · a month ago
Holds Haley Nahman
Same subject: family
A person with a spouse and children has given hostages to fortune, since they hinder great enterprises
Last stated c. 1597–1625
Holds Francis Bacon
Same subject: sustainability
A primitive science of insect control has armed itself with modern weapons and turned them against the earth
Last stated c. 1962
Holds Rachel Carson
Same subject: sustainability
A romantic, low-yield farming system would need far more land and would produce more hunger, not less.
Last stated 28 May 2023 · 3 years ago
Holds George Monbiot
Same subject: sustainability
Amazon is a relatively environmentally clean company on a per-dollar basis because of its operational efficiency.
Last stated 7 Oct 2025 · a year ago
Holds Mr. Money Mustache
Same subject: immigration
A career path becomes popular when it offers clear, prescribed rules that can simply be decoded and followed.
Last stated 28 Mar 2026 · 7 months ago
Holds Paul Millerd
Same subject: immigration
A clear path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants is compatible with enforcing the law
Last stated 30 May 2013 · 13 years ago
Holds Oprah Winfrey
Same subject: immigration
A country benefits from immigration in proportion to whether the people arriving are net contributors who assimilate.
Last stated 26 Aug 2026 · 2 months ago
Holds David Heinemeier Hansson