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← There is no long decline in human family size: once child survival is…
17 connected korrents · 14 moments on record from 1 Jun 2022 to 26 Aug 2026.
Everything filed under demographics
demographics
Everything filed under America
America
Everything filed under inflation
inflation
Everything filed under immigration
immigration
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government Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: There is no long decline in human family size: once child survival is accounted for, the two-century downward trend disappears. There is no long decline in human family size: once child survival is accounted for, the two-century downward trend disappears. Last stated a year ago
15 Jul 2025
LS
Lyman Stone — holds since 2025-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The global fall in births over the past two centuries is mostly explained by falling child mortality, and that part of the question is settled. — tap to centre the map on it The global fall in births over the past two centuries is mostly explained by falling child mortality, and that part of the question is settled. Last stated 3 weeks ago
20 Aug 2026
LS
Lyman Stone — holds since 2026-08-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: People aim at a number of surviving children rather than a number of births, so falling child mortality lets births fall without anyone wanting a smaller family. — tap to centre the map on it People aim at a number of surviving children rather than a number of births, so falling child mortality lets births fall without anyone wanting a smaller family. Last stated a year ago
15 Jul 2025
LS
Lyman Stone — holds since 2025-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The total fertility rate is a culturally biased measure, because societies substitute between abortion, infanticide and contraception to reach the same family size. — tap to centre the map on it The total fertility rate is a culturally biased measure, because societies substitute between abortion, infanticide and contraception to reach the same family size. Last stated a year ago
15 Jul 2025
LS
Lyman Stone — holds since 2025-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Population size is not what limited human adaptation; time is. A selection coefficient of half a percent works as well in a thousand people as in a million. — tap to centre the map on it Population size is not what limited human adaptation; time is. A selection coefficient of half a percent works as well in a thousand people as in a million. Last stated 4 months ago
8 May 2026
DR
David Reich — holds since 2026-05-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The theory that birth rates fall because home life has not caught up with women's opportunities at work is not supported by the data. — tap to centre the map on it The theory that birth rates fall because home life has not caught up with women's opportunities at work is not supported by the data. Last stated 3 weeks ago
20 Aug 2026
LS
Lyman Stone — holds since 2026-08-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A model fitted only to trends in its own outcome cannot forecast anything, because it contains no variable anyone could change. — tap to centre the map on it A model fitted only to trends in its own outcome cannot forecast anything, because it contains no variable anyone could change. Last stated 3 weeks ago
20 Aug 2026
LS
Lyman Stone — holds since 2026-08-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Culture can be changed, so falling birth rates are a fixable problem rather than a one-way ratchet of modernity. — tap to centre the map on it Culture can be changed, so falling birth rates are a fixable problem rather than a one-way ratchet of modernity. Last stated a year ago
1 Jul 2025
AE
Alice Evans — holds since 2025-07-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Humans collapse over the course of a life exactly as models do; children say shocking things because they have not overfitted yet. — tap to centre the map on it Humans collapse over the course of a life exactly as models do; children say shocking things because they have not overfitted yet. Last stated 11 months ago
17 Oct 2025
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-10-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country benefits from immigration in proportion to whether the people arriving are net contributors who assimilate. — tap to centre the map on it A country benefits from immigration in proportion to whether the people arriving are net contributors who assimilate. Last stated 2 weeks ago
26 Aug 2026
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: America treats its inability to build and to admit skilled migrants as mysteries to be endured rather than problems to be solved. — tap to centre the map on it America treats its inability to build and to admit skilled migrants as mysteries to be endured rather than problems to be solved. Last stated 3 years ago
23 Jan 2024
DW
Dan Wang — holds since 2024-01-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Anti-immigration parties gain ground by generating fear, not by winning the argument about what immigration does. — tap to centre the map on it Anti-immigration parties gain ground by generating fear, not by winning the argument about what immigration does. Last stated 3 years ago
29 Nov 2023
LP
Lant Pritchett — holds since 2023-11-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost. — tap to centre the map on it A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost. Last stated 5 months ago
1 Apr 2026
TP
Thuan Pham — holds since 2026-04-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Cash welfare benefits contributed at least somewhat to the inflation of 2021-2022. — tap to centre the map on it Cash welfare benefits contributed at least somewhat to the inflation of 2021-2022. Last stated 4 years ago
25 Jul 2022
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2022-07-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Central bank purchases of government bonds are not bailouts and do not automatically cause inflation, since they only change the composition of the consolidated government's liabilities, not their total. — tap to centre the map on it Central bank purchases of government bonds are not bailouts and do not automatically cause inflation, since they only change the composition of the consolidated government's liabilities, not their total. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A government taking a stake in its chipmaker is ordinary infrastructure policy — Taiwan, Japan and Singapore all did it. — tap to centre the map on it A government taking a stake in its chipmaker is ordinary infrastructure policy — Taiwan, Japan and Singapore all did it. Last stated 3 months ago
18 Jun 2026
LT
Lip-Bu Tan — holds since 2026-06-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: American shipyards are unproductive rather than expensive: their workers are paid about what Korean and Japanese shipyard workers are paid. — tap to centre the map on it American shipyards are unproductive rather than expensive: their workers are paid about what Korean and Japanese shipyard workers are paid. Last stated 3 years ago
3 Jan 2024
AV
Austin Vernon — holds since 2024-01-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Commercial shipbuilding keeps moving to whichever country has the cheapest labour, and America has never been that country. — tap to centre the map on it Commercial shipbuilding keeps moving to whichever country has the cheapest labour, and America has never been that country. Last stated 2 years ago
5 Sept 2024
BP
Brian Potter — holds since 2024-09-05 — tap for who they are
At the centre
There is no long decline in human family size: once child survival is accounted for, the two-century downward trend disappears.
Holds LS Lyman StoneRead this korrent →
The global fall in births over the past two centuries is mostly explained by falling child mortality, and that part of the question is settled.
Holds LS Lyman Stone
People aim at a number of surviving children rather than a number of births, so falling child mortality lets births fall without anyone wanting a smaller family.
Holds LS Lyman Stone
The total fertility rate is a culturally biased measure, because societies substitute between abortion, infanticide and contraception to reach the same family size.
Holds LS Lyman Stone
Population size is not what limited human adaptation; time is. A selection coefficient of half a percent works as well in a thousand people as in a million.
Holds DR David Reich
The theory that birth rates fall because home life has not caught up with women's opportunities at work is not supported by the data.
Holds LS Lyman Stone
A model fitted only to trends in its own outcome cannot forecast anything, because it contains no variable anyone could change.
Holds LS Lyman Stone
Culture can be changed, so falling birth rates are a fixable problem rather than a one-way ratchet of modernity.
Holds AE Alice Evans
Humans collapse over the course of a life exactly as models do; children say shocking things because they have not overfitted yet.
Holds
A country benefits from immigration in proportion to whether the people arriving are net contributors who assimilate.
Holds
America treats its inability to build and to admit skilled migrants as mysteries to be endured rather than problems to be solved.
Holds DW Dan Wang
Anti-immigration parties gain ground by generating fear, not by winning the argument about what immigration does.
Holds LP Lant Pritchett
A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost.
Holds TP Thuan Pham
Cash welfare benefits contributed at least somewhat to the inflation of 2021-2022.
Holds
Central bank purchases of government bonds are not bailouts and do not automatically cause inflation, since they only change the composition of the consolidated government's liabilities, not their total.
Holds
A government taking a stake in its chipmaker is ordinary infrastructure policy — Taiwan, Japan and Singapore all did it.
Holds LT Lip-Bu Tan
American shipyards are unproductive rather than expensive: their workers are paid about what Korean and Japanese shipyard workers are paid.
Holds AV Austin Vernon
Commercial shipbuilding keeps moving to whichever country has the cheapest labour, and America has never been that country.
Holds BP Brian Potter