There is no long decline in human family size: once child survival is accounted for, the two-century downward trend disappears.

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• The global fall in births over the past two centuries is mostly explained by falling child mortality, and that part of the question is settled. LSLyman Stone20 Aug 2026similar wording
• People aim at a number of surviving children rather than a number of births, so falling child mortality lets births fall without anyone wanting a smaller family. LSLyman Stone15 Jul 2025similar wording
• The total fertility rate is a culturally biased measure, because societies substitute between abortion, infanticide and contraception to reach the same family size. LSLyman Stone15 Jul 2025similar wording
• Population size is not what limited human adaptation; time is. A selection coefficient of half a percent works as well in a thousand people as in a million. DRDavid Reich8 May 2026similar wording
• The theory that birth rates fall because home life has not caught up with women's opportunities at work is not supported by the data. LSLyman Stone20 Aug 2026similar wording

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