There is a 25% chance of AGI by 2027, a 50% chance by 2034, and a 75% chance by 2045

Added to korrents 29 Aug 2026 · How quotes work · Something wrong? Tell us

Where this collides

• In tension with

  Asked when an AI could build a billion-dollar business on its own: AGI has already arrived.

  Alexander puts a quarter of the probability mass on AGI arriving by 2027 and half by 2034. Huang says it is already here. A forecast and a declaration of arrival are different kinds of statement, which is why this is a tension rather than a flat contradiction — but they cannot both be good descriptions of where 2026 sits.

• In tension with

  Most current predictions about AI's imminent impact on the job market are naive.

  Karpathy calls current predictions about AI’s imminent impact naive. Alexander is making exactly that kind of dated forecast, in public, with numbers attached. Putting probabilities on a guess is a partial answer to the charge of naivety and not a refutation of it.

Shared subject first, then similar wording. They may agree or disagree.

• A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean. ISIlya Sutskever25 Nov 2025AGIAI alignment
• Dismissing human-level AI as science fiction is now unserious, because even the sceptical experts put it within a decade or two. HTHelen Toner1 Apr 2025AGIAI alignment
• Even generalised superintelligence will change society more slowly than the AGI community expects, because intelligence is not the only rate limiter. BTBret Taylor18 Aug 2025AGIAI alignment
• Preventing a rogue AGI requires a population of competing AGIs with conflicting interests, not alignment of any single AGI. MWMatt Webb8 Aug 2026AGIAI alignment
• A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. AIAlex Imas4 Jun 2026AGI

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