Most current predictions about AI's imminent impact on the job market are naive.

Drawn from what Andrej Karpathy said

What this subject means

AI and jobs Whether AI displaces human work, which jobs go first, and what replaces them.

On the topicWill AI take the jobs?under our view: The confident forecasts are themselves the overreach

What Andrej Karpathy actually said

Do you hold this korrent?Do you also believe this?

Cannot both be true

AI could displace half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years, even while it accelerates economic growth.

Karpathy’s claim is second-order: it is about forecasts like this one, and it calls them naive. Amodei’s one-to-five-year displacement forecast is squarely the genre under attack, so the two men cannot both be reading the evidence correctly.
In tension with

The three-year bet about whether AI image models could handle compositionality was won in three months.

Karpathy says current predictions about AI’s imminent impact are naive. Alexander made a dated, falsifiable, public bet, declared it won in three months, and then retracted the win when a survey of other people disagreed with his own scoring. Naivety and a retracted scorecard are different failure modes, and the second is the one this archive can actually see.
In tension with

There is a 25% chance of AGI by 2027, a 50% chance by 2034, and a 75% chance by 2045

Karpathy calls current predictions about AI’s imminent impact naive. Alexander is making exactly that kind of dated forecast, in public, with numbers attached. Putting probabilities on a guess is a partial answer to the charge of naivety and not a refutation of it.

Shared subject first, then similar wording. They may agree or disagree.