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← The one genuine uncertainty left about AI capability is tasks nobody…
17 connected korrents · 20 moments from 3 Oct 2012 to 15 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under AGI
AGI
Everything filed under AI alignment
AI alignment
Everything filed under scaling laws
scaling laws
Everything filed under LLMs
LLMs
Everything filed under AI sentience
AI sentience
Everything filed under AI and jobs
AI and jobs
Everything filed under humility
humility Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: The one genuine uncertainty left about AI capability is tasks nobody can verify — planning a Mars mission, discovering CRISPR, writing a novel. The one genuine uncertainty left about AI capability is tasks nobody can verify — planning a Mars mission, discovering CRISPR, writing a novel. Last stated 8 months ago
13 Feb 2026
DA
Dario Amodei — holds since 2026-02-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The least verifiable part of AI research is the judgement call about what goes into the one big training run. — tap to centre the map on it The least verifiable part of AI research is the judgement call about what goes into the one big training run. Last stated 2 months ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Whether advanced AI poses an existential risk to humanity is currently unknowable. — tap to centre the map on it Whether advanced AI poses an existential risk to humanity is currently unknowable. Last stated a month ago
15 Sept 2026
MS
M.G. Siegler — holds since 2026-09-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The likeliest bad path is not a coup but sloppiness: AI does everything verifiable well, research races ahead, and the subtle work of keeping AI safe is what gets done badly. — tap to centre the map on it The likeliest bad path is not a coup but sloppiness: AI does everything verifiable well, research races ahead, and the subtle work of keeping AI safe is what gets done badly. Last stated 2 months ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress. — tap to centre the map on it Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress. Last stated 2 months ago
6 Sept 2026
JP
Jakub Pachocki — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Current AI systems are very unlikely to be close to achieving genuine sentience. — tap to centre the map on it Current AI systems are very unlikely to be close to achieving genuine sentience. Last stated 3 months ago
16 Jul 2026
SJ
Steven Johnson — holds since 2026-07-16 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Even when AI is capable of performing a job, it may not be permitted to do so. — tap to centre the map on it Even when AI is capable of performing a job, it may not be permitted to do so. Last stated 2 months ago
1 Sept 2026
NM
Nick Maggiulli — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching. — tap to centre the map on it Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching. Last stated 2 months ago
20 Aug 2026
AD
Aswath Damodaran — holds since 2026-08-20 — tap for who they are
HM
Howard Marks — holds since 2025-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: No one fully understands the consequences of how capable AI is becoming. — tap to centre the map on it No one fully understands the consequences of how capable AI is becoming. Last stated 2 months ago
1 Sept 2026
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A true artificial general intelligence cannot exist without being recognized as a moral subject. — tap to centre the map on it A true artificial general intelligence cannot exist without being recognized as a moral subject. Last stated a year ago
10 Jun 2025
SH
Samuel Hammond — holds since 2025-06-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AGI research made no progress in its first six decades. — tap to centre the map on it AGI research made no progress in its first six decades. Last stated 14 years ago
3 Oct 2012
DD
David Deutsch — holds since 2012-10-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An AI that cannot work out new physics has not equalled human intelligence, let alone surpassed it, because humans have worked out new physics. — tap to centre the map on it An AI that cannot work out new physics has not equalled human intelligence, let alone surpassed it, because humans have worked out new physics. Last stated 3 years ago
9 Nov 2023
EM
Elon Musk — holds since 2023-11-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Language models are already a form of AGI; what the labs are chasing is a further step, not the arrival of general intelligence. — tap to centre the map on it Language models are already a form of AGI; what the labs are chasing is a further step, not the arrival of general intelligence. Last stated 2 years ago
3 Feb 2025
NL
Nathan Lambert — holds since 2025-02-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The one thing no science-fiction writer dared predict is that the Turing test would be passed and nobody would notice. — tap to centre the map on it The one thing no science-fiction writer dared predict is that the Turing test would be passed and nobody would notice. Last stated a year ago
18 Sept 2025
TL
Tobias Lütke — holds since 2025-09-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Work on large language models is not progress toward artificial general intelligence, because the models do not understand what they read. — tap to centre the map on it Work on large language models is not progress toward artificial general intelligence, because the models do not understand what they read. Last stated a year ago
30 Jul 2025
AG
Alexey Guzey — holds since 2024-08-09 — tap for who they are
AG
Alexey Guzey — no longer holds since 2025-07-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. — tap to centre the map on it A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. Last stated a year ago
7 Jun 2025
GM
Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-06-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A model that could learn effectively from raw bitstrings or bytestrings would be extremely powerful, able to learn from any data modality — tap to centre the map on it A model that could learn effectively from raw bitstrings or bytestrings would be extremely powerful, able to learn from any data modality Last stated 3 years ago
10 Oct 2023
CH
Chip Huyen — holds since 2023-10-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. — tap to centre the map on it AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. Last stated 2 years ago
2 Feb 2025
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Alexander — holds since 2022-09-12 — tap for who they are
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2025-02-02 — tap for who they are
At the centre
The one genuine uncertainty left about AI capability is tasks nobody can verify — planning a Mars mission, discovering CRISPR, writing a novel.
Holds Read this korrent →
The least verifiable part of AI research is the judgement call about what goes into the one big training run.
Holds
Whether advanced AI poses an existential risk to humanity is currently unknowable.
Holds
The likeliest bad path is not a coup but sloppiness: AI does everything verifiable well, research races ahead, and the subtle work of keeping AI safe is what gets done badly.
Holds
Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress.
Holds
Current AI systems are very unlikely to be close to achieving genuine sentience.
Holds
Even when AI is capable of performing a job, it may not be permitted to do so.
Holds
Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching.
Holds
No one fully understands the consequences of how capable AI is becoming.
Holds
A true artificial general intelligence cannot exist without being recognized as a moral subject.
Holds
AGI research made no progress in its first six decades.
Holds
An AI that cannot work out new physics has not equalled human intelligence, let alone surpassed it, because humans have worked out new physics.
Holds
Language models are already a form of AGI; what the labs are chasing is a further step, not the arrival of general intelligence.
Holds
The one thing no science-fiction writer dared predict is that the Turing test would be passed and nobody would notice.
Holds
Work on large language models is not progress toward artificial general intelligence, because the models do not understand what they read.
No longer holds
A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted.
Holds
A model that could learn effectively from raw bitstrings or bytestrings would be extremely powerful, able to learn from any data modality
Holds
AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard.
Holds