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← The one genuine uncertainty left about AI capability is tasks nobody…

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8 connected korrents · 8 moments on record from 17 Feb 2023 to 1 Sept 2026.

Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject The one genuine uncertaintyleft about AI capability istasks nobody can verify —… DA Dario Amodei — holds since 2026-02-13 The least verifiable part of AI research is the judgement call about what goes into the one big training run. The least verifiablepart of AI research is… RG Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 The likeliest bad path is not a coup but sloppiness: AI does everything verifiable well, research races ahead, and the subtle work of keeping AI safe is what gets done badly. The likeliest bad pathis not a coup but… RG Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching. Nobody can yet knowwhether the current… AD Aswath Damodaran — holds since 2026-08-20 HM Howard Marks — holds since 2025-12-09 No one fully understands the consequences of how capable AI is becoming. No one fullyunderstands the… SA Sam Altman — holds since 2026-09-01 There is no route to AI alignment or safety that goes around reliability: a system that cannot reliably follow a known algorithm cannot be made safe. There is no route to AIalignment or safety… GM Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-06-07 There is essentially no cognitive task humans do where AI improvement is failing to transfer at all. There is essentially nocognitive task humans… RG Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 His prediction that research-level mathematics papers would be written in collaboration with AI by 2026 has already come true. His prediction thatresearch-level… TT Terence Tao — holds since 2025-06-14 We do not control neural networks well enough to guarantee an AI will not harm humans, so we should be careful about what capabilities we give them. We do not controlneural networks well… AR Armin Ronacher — holds since 2023-02-17
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