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← The historical occurrence of extreme natural events does not by itself show whether their odds have changed over time.
17 connected korrents · 18 moments on record from 26 Aug 2022 to 17 Sept 2026.
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climate change Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: The historical occurrence of extreme natural events does not by itself show whether their odds have changed over time. The historical occurrence of extreme natural events does not by itself show whether their odds have changed over time. Last stated 3 weeks ago
28 Aug 2026
ZH
Zeke Hausfather — holds since 2026-08-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: History has no predetermined path: its course turns on unpredictable contingencies rather than on deep currents that would have produced the same outcome anyway. — tap to centre the map on it History has no predetermined path: its course turns on unpredictable contingencies rather than on deep currents that would have produced the same outcome anyway. Last stated 4 years ago
26 Aug 2022
BD
Bret Devereaux — holds since 2022-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: History does not repeat itself, but patterns of human behaviour do, and what always follows an economic crisis is political upheaval. — tap to centre the map on it History does not repeat itself, but patterns of human behaviour do, and what always follows an economic crisis is political upheaval. Last stated a year ago
24 May 2025
JH
James Holland — holds since 2025-05-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Major historical events do not necessarily have deep intellectual or ideological causes; assuming so is a common fallacy. — tap to centre the map on it Major historical events do not necessarily have deep intellectual or ideological causes; assuming so is a common fallacy. Last stated 4 days ago
17 Sept 2026
MY
Matthew Yglesias — holds since 2026-09-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The worldwide flood traditions record the Younger Dryas, not local floods that storytellers mistook for global ones. — tap to centre the map on it The worldwide flood traditions record the Younger Dryas, not local floods that storytellers mistook for global ones. Last stated 2 years ago
16 Oct 2024
GH
Graham Hancock — holds since 2024-10-16 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Raw, unhomogenized daily temperature records understate modern extreme heat because of historical instrument and observation-time changes — tap to centre the map on it Raw, unhomogenized daily temperature records understate modern extreme heat because of historical instrument and observation-time changes Last stated 2 months ago
22 Jul 2026
ZH
Zeke Hausfather — holds since 2026-07-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The intense U.S. heat of the 1930s was driven by regional natural variability plus human-caused poor land management (the Dust Bowl), not global warming. — tap to centre the map on it The intense U.S. heat of the 1930s was driven by regional natural variability plus human-caused poor land management (the Dust Bowl), not global warming. Last stated 2 months ago
27 Jul 2026
AD
Andrew Dessler — holds since 2026-07-27 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Climate change is real and is not the civilisation-threatening disaster it was sold as, and the expensive policies bought nothing. — tap to centre the map on it Climate change is real and is not the civilisation-threatening disaster it was sold as, and the expensive policies bought nothing. Last stated a year ago
18 Sept 2025
JC
John H. Cochrane — holds since 2025-09-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Climate change's effects will unfold as sudden catastrophic events rather than as steadily accumulating small changes. — tap to centre the map on it Climate change's effects will unfold as sudden catastrophic events rather than as steadily accumulating small changes. Last stated 2 months ago
29 Jul 2026
AD
Andrew Dessler — holds since 2026-07-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A backlash against women's economic rise is not automatic; it happens only where politicians choose to mobilise it. — tap to centre the map on it A backlash against women's economic rise is not automatic; it happens only where politicians choose to mobilise it. Last stated 2 years ago
1 Dec 2024
AE
Alice Evans — holds since 2024-12-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country without cultural unity struggles to provide public goods, because its politics turns into an ethnic spoils system. — tap to centre the map on it A country without cultural unity struggles to provide public goods, because its politics turns into an ethnic spoils system. Last stated 5 months ago
9 Apr 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-04-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A two-state solution is no longer possible; that boat has sailed. — tap to centre the map on it A two-state solution is no longer possible; that boat has sailed. Last stated 3 years ago
17 Nov 2023
JM
John Mearsheimer — holds since 2023-11-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "Food from thin air" is not from thin air: it runs on water, minerals, ammonia and industrial plant. — tap to centre the map on it "Food from thin air" is not from thin air: it runs on water, minerals, ammonia and industrial plant. Last stated 3 months ago
30 Jun 2026
CS
Chris Smaje — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. — tap to centre the map on it A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. Last stated 4 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A future of constrained energy will need more people working the land, and that is not the same as going back to the past. — tap to centre the map on it A future of constrained energy will need more people working the land, and that is not the same as going back to the past. Last stated 3 months ago
30 Jun 2026
CS
Chris Smaje — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A century of fire suppression policy in the American West has dangerously overloaded forests with fuel and made megafires more likely. — tap to centre the map on it A century of fire suppression policy in the American West has dangerously overloaded forests with fuel and made megafires more likely. Last stated 4 weeks ago
22 Aug 2026
JP
Jennifer Pahlka — holds since 2026-08-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A Chinese crewed landing on the Moon before America returns would be a defeat for the free world. — tap to centre the map on it A Chinese crewed landing on the Moon before America returns would be a defeat for the free world. Last stated a month ago
18 Aug 2026
CH
Casey Handmer — holds since 2025-10-31 — tap for who they are
EB
Eric Berger — holds since 2026-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A city's first rail line comes in at a reasonable cost and every line after it does not, because the follow-up outgrows the in-house team that oversaw the pilot. — tap to centre the map on it A city's first rail line comes in at a reasonable cost and every line after it does not, because the follow-up outgrows the in-house team that oversaw the pilot. Last stated 2 years ago
7 Dec 2024
AL
Alon Levy — holds since 2024-12-07 — tap for who they are
At the centre
The historical occurrence of extreme natural events does not by itself show whether their odds have changed over time.
Holds Read this korrent →
History has no predetermined path: its course turns on unpredictable contingencies rather than on deep currents that would have produced the same outcome anyway.
Holds
History does not repeat itself, but patterns of human behaviour do, and what always follows an economic crisis is political upheaval.
Holds
Major historical events do not necessarily have deep intellectual or ideological causes; assuming so is a common fallacy.
Holds
The worldwide flood traditions record the Younger Dryas, not local floods that storytellers mistook for global ones.
Holds
Raw, unhomogenized daily temperature records understate modern extreme heat because of historical instrument and observation-time changes
Holds
The intense U.S. heat of the 1930s was driven by regional natural variability plus human-caused poor land management (the Dust Bowl), not global warming.
Holds
Climate change is real and is not the civilisation-threatening disaster it was sold as, and the expensive policies bought nothing.
Holds
Climate change's effects will unfold as sudden catastrophic events rather than as steadily accumulating small changes.
Holds
A backlash against women's economic rise is not automatic; it happens only where politicians choose to mobilise it.
Holds
A country without cultural unity struggles to provide public goods, because its politics turns into an ethnic spoils system.
Holds
A two-state solution is no longer possible; that boat has sailed.
Holds
"Food from thin air" is not from thin air: it runs on water, minerals, ammonia and industrial plant.
Holds
A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated.
Holds
A future of constrained energy will need more people working the land, and that is not the same as going back to the past.
Holds
A century of fire suppression policy in the American West has dangerously overloaded forests with fuel and made megafires more likely.
Holds
A Chinese crewed landing on the Moon before America returns would be a defeat for the free world.
Holds
A city's first rail line comes in at a reasonable cost and every line after it does not, because the follow-up outgrows the in-house team that oversaw the pilot.
Holds