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← The base rate for US stocks over any one year is that they rise, and forgetting it is how market calls go wrong.
17 connected korrents · 17 moments on record from 14 Mar 2014 to 7 Sept 2026. Nearly all of them are about stock market .
Everything filed under America
America
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benchmarks Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: The base rate for US stocks over any one year is that they rise, and forgetting it is how market calls go wrong. The base rate for US stocks over any one year is that they rise, and forgetting it is how market calls go wrong. Last stated 2 weeks ago
25 Aug 2026
NM
Nick Maggiulli — holds since 2026-08-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The froth visible in US markets in 2025 was the 2021 mania returning, and reason enough to take risk off. — tap to centre the map on it The froth visible in US markets in 2025 was the 2021 mania returning, and reason enough to take risk off. Last stated 2 weeks ago
25 Aug 2026
NM
Nick Maggiulli — holds since 2025-08-26 — tap for who they are
NM
Nick Maggiulli — no longer holds since 2026-08-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Almost all of the dot-com era's exuberance turned out to be warranted; we remember the failures and forget the value that era created. — tap to centre the map on it Almost all of the dot-com era's exuberance turned out to be warranted; we remember the failures and forget the value that era created. Last stated a year ago
18 Aug 2025
BT
Bret Taylor — holds since 2025-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Almost no mutual fund earns the fees it charges, so most investors are better off buying an index fund. — tap to centre the map on it Almost no mutual fund earns the fees it charges, so most investors are better off buying an index fund. Last stated 3 years ago
20 Feb 2024
BA
Bill Ackman — holds since 2024-02-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An investor's starting point should be the portfolio that is best to hold independent of any tactical market view — tap to centre the map on it An investor's starting point should be the portfolio that is best to hold independent of any tactical market view Last stated 2 weeks ago
25 Aug 2026
RD
Ray Dalio — holds since 2026-02-19 — tap for who they are
NM
Nick Maggiulli — holds since 2026-08-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Cash transfers are the index fund of development: the benchmark every actively managed aid programme should have to beat. — tap to centre the map on it Cash transfers are the index fund of development: the benchmark every actively managed aid programme should have to beat. Last stated 12 years ago
14 Mar 2014
CB
Chris Blattman — holds since 2014-03-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Investing well requires reversing the human instinct to grow excited as prices rise and fearful as they fall. — tap to centre the map on it Investing well requires reversing the human instinct to grow excited as prices rise and fearful as they fall. Last stated 3 years ago
20 Feb 2024
BA
Bill Ackman — holds since 2024-02-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Losing money periodically is a normal part of owning stocks, not a sign that something has gone wrong. — tap to centre the map on it Losing money periodically is a normal part of owning stocks, not a sign that something has gone wrong. Last stated 2 weeks ago
27 Aug 2026
BC
Ben Carlson — holds since 2026-08-27 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Rising concentration in the stock market is a feature of bull markets rather than a warning sign. — tap to centre the map on it Rising concentration in the stock market is a feature of bull markets rather than a warning sign. Last stated yesterday
6 Sept 2026
BC
Ben Carlson — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A Chinese crewed landing on the Moon before America returns would be a defeat for the free world. — tap to centre the map on it A Chinese crewed landing on the Moon before America returns would be a defeat for the free world. Last stated 3 weeks ago
18 Aug 2026
CH
Casey Handmer — holds since 2025-10-31 — tap for who they are
EB
Eric Berger — holds since 2026-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country cannot have radical technological breakthroughs and also refuse to tolerate uncomfortably rich people, because the financial system it resents is what funds the innovation. — tap to centre the map on it A country cannot have radical technological breakthroughs and also refuse to tolerate uncomfortably rich people, because the financial system it resents is what funds the innovation. Last stated a year ago
13 Aug 2025
KJ
Keyu Jin — holds since 2025-08-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country's large trade deficit in manufactured goods reduces its manufacturing employment below what it would be with balanced trade. — tap to centre the map on it A country's large trade deficit in manufactured goods reduces its manufacturing employment below what it would be with balanced trade. Last stated today
7 Sept 2026
PK
Paul Krugman — holds since 2026-09-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A large, sustained AI capability lead by either the US or China could shift the global balance of power between them. — tap to centre the map on it A large, sustained AI capability lead by either the US or China could shift the global balance of power between them. Last stated 2 days ago
5 Sept 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Almost nobody in America is paying attention to the space race with China, and a Chinese landing at the lunar south pole will change that. — tap to centre the map on it Almost nobody in America is paying attention to the space race with China, and a Chinese landing at the lunar south pole will change that. Last stated 3 weeks ago
18 Aug 2026
EB
Eric Berger — holds since 2026-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: America cannot simply copy China's manufacturing methods, because which technology is correct depends on the local price of labour. — tap to centre the map on it America cannot simply copy China's manufacturing methods, because which technology is correct depends on the local price of labour. Last stated 7 months ago
12 Feb 2026
AV
Austin Vernon — holds since 2026-02-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Rebuilding American manufacturing is a decades-long educational and cultural project, not something tariffs can do. — tap to centre the map on it Rebuilding American manufacturing is a decades-long educational and cultural project, not something tariffs can do. Last stated 8 months ago
25 Dec 2025
MH
Molson Hart — holds since 2025-12-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Tariff revenue is real but far too small to make a dent in the American deficit. — tap to centre the map on it Tariff revenue is real but far too small to make a dent in the American deficit. Last stated 6 months ago
24 Feb 2026
PK
Paul Krugman — holds since 2026-02-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Tariffs are beside the point in the energy race with China; what is actually costing America is environmental regulation, and Texas is out-deploying California ten to one because of it. — tap to centre the map on it Tariffs are beside the point in the energy race with China; what is actually costing America is environmental regulation, and Texas is out-deploying California ten to one because of it. Last stated a year ago
15 Aug 2025
CH
Casey Handmer — holds since 2025-08-15 — tap for who they are
At the centre
The base rate for US stocks over any one year is that they rise, and forgetting it is how market calls go wrong.
Holds NM Nick MaggiulliRead this korrent →
The froth visible in US markets in 2025 was the 2021 mania returning, and reason enough to take risk off.
No longer holds NM Nick Maggiulli
Almost all of the dot-com era's exuberance turned out to be warranted; we remember the failures and forget the value that era created.
Holds BT Bret Taylor
Almost no mutual fund earns the fees it charges, so most investors are better off buying an index fund.
Holds BA Bill Ackman
An investor's starting point should be the portfolio that is best to hold independent of any tactical market view
Holds NM Nick Maggiulli
Cash transfers are the index fund of development: the benchmark every actively managed aid programme should have to beat.
Holds CB Chris Blattman
Investing well requires reversing the human instinct to grow excited as prices rise and fearful as they fall.
Holds BA Bill Ackman
Losing money periodically is a normal part of owning stocks, not a sign that something has gone wrong.
Holds BC Ben Carlson
Rising concentration in the stock market is a feature of bull markets rather than a warning sign.
Holds BC Ben Carlson
A Chinese crewed landing on the Moon before America returns would be a defeat for the free world.
Holds CH Casey HandmerEB Eric Berger
A country cannot have radical technological breakthroughs and also refuse to tolerate uncomfortably rich people, because the financial system it resents is what funds the innovation.
Holds KJ Keyu Jin
A country's large trade deficit in manufactured goods reduces its manufacturing employment below what it would be with balanced trade.
Holds PK Paul Krugman
A large, sustained AI capability lead by either the US or China could shift the global balance of power between them.
Holds
Almost nobody in America is paying attention to the space race with China, and a Chinese landing at the lunar south pole will change that.
Holds EB Eric Berger
America cannot simply copy China's manufacturing methods, because which technology is correct depends on the local price of labour.
Holds AV Austin Vernon
Rebuilding American manufacturing is a decades-long educational and cultural project, not something tariffs can do.
Holds MH Molson Hart
Tariff revenue is real but far too small to make a dent in the American deficit.
Holds PK Paul Krugman
Tariffs are beside the point in the energy race with China; what is actually costing America is environmental regulation, and Texas is out-deploying California ten to one because of it.
Holds CH Casey Handmer