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← Scaling results gave conviction that AI would keep getting smarter in a very predictable way.

17 connected korrents · 17 moments from 10 Dec 2015 to 6 Sept 2026.

Everything filed under Anthropic Anthropic Everything filed under neural networks neural networks Everything filed under OpenAI OpenAI Everything filed under LLMs LLMs Everything filed under humility humility Everything filed under scaling laws scaling laws Everything filed under ideas vs execution ideas vs execution Everything filed under recursive self-improvement recursive self-improvement Everything filed under AI alignment AI alignment Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: Scaling results gave conviction that AI would keep getting smarter in a very predictable way. Scaling results gave conviction that AIwould keep getting smarter in a verypredictable way. Last stated a year ago 16 Jun 2025 JK Jared Kaplan — holds since 2025-06-16 — tap for who they are Same subject: Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching. — tap to centre the map on it Nobody can yet know whether thecurrent enthusiasm for AI isexcessive, so anyone claimingconviction about how it resolves isoverreaching. Last stated 2 months ago 20 Aug 2026 AD Aswath Damodaran — holds since 2026-08-20 — tap for who they are HM Howard Marks — holds since 2025-12-09 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI helps exactly as far as the work is predictable and well documented, and stops helping on anything cutting edge. — tap to centre the map on it AI helps exactly as far as the workis predictable and well documented,and stops helping on anythingcutting edge. Last stated 2 years ago 22 Mar 2025 TH ThePrimeagen — holds since 2025-03-22 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI is likely to help people be smarter. — tap to centre the map on it AI is likely to help people besmarter. Last stated 3 years ago 14 May 2023 JG John Graham-Cumming — holds since 2023-05-14 — tap for who they are Same subject: Intelligence is going to scale by exactly one thing, and that thing is compute. — tap to centre the map on it Intelligence is going to scale byexactly one thing, and that thing iscompute. Last stated 7 months ago 23 Mar 2026 JH Jensen Huang — holds since 2026-03-23 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI gives a very clear idea of what is possible, but it is still up to people to walk the terrain. — tap to centre the map on it AI gives a very clear idea of whatis possible, but it is still up topeople to walk the terrain. Last stated 7 months ago 25 Mar 2026 FG Flora Guo — holds since 2026-03-25 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. — tap to centre the map on it AI progress is faster than peopleexpect, and ordinary scaling can beenough to solve problems that lookedvery hard. Last stated 2 years ago 2 Feb 2025 AC Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are SA Scott Alexander — holds since 2022-09-12 — tap for who they are MB Miles Brundage — holds since 2025-02-02 — tap for who they are Same subject: The current speed of AI progress could be sustained all the way into recursive self-improvement. — tap to centre the map on it The current speed of AI progresscould be sustained all the way intorecursive self-improvement. Last stated a month ago 6 Sept 2026 JP Jakub Pachocki — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are Same subject: Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress. — tap to centre the map on it Confidence in monitoring, notcapability research, will become thebinding constraint on AI progress. Last stated a month ago 6 Sept 2026 JP Jakub Pachocki — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as anonprofit and bolt a for-profit armon later, whatever OpenAI's ownhistory suggests. Last stated 3 years ago 18 Mar 2024 SA Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. — tap to centre the map on it Advertising was a necessary phasefor the internet but a momentaryindustry, and an AI people pay foris better because they know theanswers are not influenced byadvertisers. Last stated 3 years ago 18 Mar 2024 SA Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: Agents are going to be incorporated into mainstream interfaces — tap to centre the map on it Agents are going to be incorporatedinto mainstream interfaces Last stated 7 months ago 25 Mar 2026 DH David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-03-25 — tap for who they are Same subject: "I don't know" becomes a kind of superpower when you can work with Claude Code to figure things out. — tap to centre the map on it "I don't know" becomes a kind ofsuperpower when you can work withClaude Code to figure things out. Last stated 7 months ago 19 Mar 2026 KP Kris Puckett — holds since 2026-03-19 — tap for who they are Same subject: A benchmark that ranks Claude Code last while it stays first in use is measuring the wrong thing, and has been for a year. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark that ranks Claude Codelast while it stays first in use ismeasuring the wrong thing, and hasbeen for a year. Last stated a month ago 3 Sept 2026 DR Dax Raad — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: A skill is a set of repeatable, specific instructions that augments what Claude Code can do. — tap to centre the map on it A skill is a set of repeatable,specific instructions that augmentswhat Claude Code can do. Last stated 7 months ago 19 Mar 2026 KP Kris Puckett — holds since 2026-03-19 — tap for who they are Same subject: A layer should learn a residual with reference to its own input rather than an unreferenced function, which is what makes great depth trainable. — tap to centre the map on it A layer should learn a residual withreference to its own input ratherthan an unreferenced function, whichis what makes great depth trainable. Last stated 11 years ago 10 Dec 2015 JS Jian Sun — holds since 2015-12-10 — tap for who they are KH Kaiming He — holds since 2015-12-10 — tap for who they are Same subject: A small enough winning ticket learns faster than the network it was cut out of, and ends up more accurate than it. — tap to centre the map on it A small enough winning ticket learnsfaster than the network it was cutout of, and ends up more accuratethan it. Last stated 9 years ago 9 Mar 2018 MC Michael Carbin — holds since 2018-03-09 — tap for who they are JF Jonathan Frankle — holds since 2018-03-09 — tap for who they are Same subject: A transduction model can rely entirely on self-attention for input and output representations without sequence-aligned RNNs or convolution. — tap to centre the map on it A transduction model can relyentirely on self-attention for inputand output representations withoutsequence-aligned RNNs orconvolution. Last stated 9 years ago 12 Jun 2017 IP Illia Polosukhin — holds since 2017-06-12 — tap for who they are JU Jakob Uszkoreit — holds since 2017-06-12 — tap for who they are NP Niki Parmar — holds since 2017-06-12 — tap for who they are AV Ashish Vaswani — holds since 2017-06-12 — tap for who they are NS Noam Shazeer — holds since 2017-06-12 — tap for who they are AG Aidan N. Gomez — holds since 2017-06-12 — tap for who they are +2 2 more
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At the centre Scaling results gave conviction that AI would keep getting smarter in a very predictable way. Last stated 16 Jun 2025 · a year ago Holds Jared Kaplan Read this korrent →