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← How you measure the present strongly shapes what can be extrapolated about the near future.

12 connected korrents · 9 moments from 14 May 2018 to 3 Sept 2026.

Everything filed under benchmarks benchmarks Everything filed under world models world models Everything filed under mental models mental models Everything filed under LLMs LLMs Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: How you measure the present strongly shapes what can be extrapolated about the near future. How you measure the present stronglyshapes what can be extrapolated about thenear future. Last stated a year ago 16 Jun 2025 NB Nat Bullard — holds since 2025-06-16 — tap for who they are Same subject: As much as possible, one should avoid predicting the future and instead wait for it to become the present and reveal what is actually needed. — tap to centre the map on it As much as possible, one shouldavoid predicting the future andinstead wait for it to become thepresent and reveal what is actuallyneeded. Last stated a year ago 14 May 2025 DS Derek Sivers — holds since 2025-05-14 — tap for who they are Same subject: The future is not determined, and it can be navigated better by understanding the likelihood of events that could affect us. — tap to centre the map on it The future is not determined, and itcan be navigated better byunderstanding the likelihood ofevents that could affect us. Last stated 8 years ago 14 May 2018 SP Shane Parrish — holds since 2018-05-14 — tap for who they are Same subject: People who extrapolate from first-principles models have a stronger track record predicting AI progress than those who wait for empirical proof. — tap to centre the map on it People who extrapolate fromfirst-principles models have astronger track record predicting AIprogress than those who wait forempirical proof. Last stated 9 months ago 18 Feb 2026 SH Samuel Hammond — holds since 2026-02-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: 'Everyone gets it wrong sometimes' is a bad argument when assessing track records. — tap to centre the map on it 'Everyone gets it wrong sometimes'is a bad argument when assessingtrack records. Last stated 3 months ago 2 Aug 2026 AK Adam Kucharski — holds since 2026-08-02 — tap for who they are Same subject: A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark result should bereported under a stated budget, oras a curve against test-time compute— never as a single number. Last stated 4 months ago 26 Jun 2026 NB Noam Brown — holds since 2026-06-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: A benchmark that ranks Claude Code last while it stays first in use is measuring the wrong thing, and has been for a year. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark that ranks Claude Codelast while it stays first in use ismeasuring the wrong thing, and hasbeen for a year. Last stated 2 months ago 3 Sept 2026 DR Dax Raad — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: A model that can predict the next frames of a video coherently understands the world, in the only sense of the word that is doing any work. — tap to centre the map on it A model that can predict the nextframes of a video coherentlyunderstands the world, in the onlysense of the word that is doing anywork. Last stated a year ago 23 Jul 2025 DH Demis Hassabis — holds since 2025-07-23 — tap for who they are Same subject: A vision is a sense of how the world works — tap to centre the map on it A vision is a sense of how the worldworks TS Thomas Sowell — holds since c. 1987 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI models need to arrive with the context of someone who has worked inside an organisation for years, not a blank slate. — tap to centre the map on it AI models need to arrive with thecontext of someone who has workedinside an organisation for years,not a blank slate. Last stated a year ago 16 Jun 2025 JK Jared Kaplan — holds since 2025-06-16 — tap for who they are Same subject: A model's capability is now a function of how much money you spend on it, so asking what a model can do means nothing until you name a budget. — tap to centre the map on it A model's capability is now afunction of how much money you spendon it, so asking what a model can domeans nothing until you name abudget. Last stated 4 months ago 26 Jun 2026 NB Noam Brown — holds since 2026-06-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: Language models perform better on benchmark problems released before their training data cutoff, indicating data contamination inflates scores. — tap to centre the map on it Language models perform better onbenchmark problems released beforetheir training data cutoff,indicating data contaminationinflates scores. Last stated 2 years ago 13 May 2024 SR Sebastian Ruder — holds since 2024-05-13 — tap for who they are Same subject: Model comparisons understate real progress, because benchmark tables do not control for how much test-time compute each answer used. — tap to centre the map on it Model comparisons understate realprogress, because benchmark tablesdo not control for how muchtest-time compute each answer used. Last stated 4 months ago 26 Jun 2026 NB Noam Brown — holds since 2026-06-26 — tap for who they are
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At the centre How you measure the present strongly shapes what can be extrapolated about the near future. Last stated 16 Jun 2025 · a year ago Holds Nat Bullard Read this korrent →