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← People who extrapolate from first-principles models have a stronger…

17 connected korrents · 14 moments from 18 Mar 2024 to 21 Oct 2026.

Everything filed under LLMs LLMs Everything filed under Anthropic Anthropic Everything filed under open source open source Everything filed under OpenAI OpenAI Everything filed under scaling laws scaling laws Everything filed under AI and science AI and science Everything filed under mathematics mathematics Everything filed under China China Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: People who extrapolate from first-principles models have a stronger track record predicting AI progress than those who wait for empirical proof. People who extrapolate fromfirst-principles models have a strongertrack record predicting AI progress thanthose who wait for empirical proof. Last stated 9 months ago 18 Feb 2026 SH Samuel Hammond — holds since 2026-02-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI models can be more accurate than physical experiments by averaging out noise, incorporating priors from large datasets, and interpolating between data points. — tap to centre the map on it AI models can be more accurate thanphysical experiments by averagingout noise, incorporating priors fromlarge datasets, and interpolatingbetween data points. Last stated 11 months ago 23 Nov 2025 EH Elliot Hershberg — holds since 2025-11-23 — tap for who they are Same subject: As model complexity grows, it is very likely that AI will perform even better. — tap to centre the map on it As model complexity grows, it isvery likely that AI will performeven better. Last stated 2 weeks ago 19 Oct 2026 VP Vinay Prasad — holds since 2026-10-19 — tap for who they are Same subject: The world is much earlier in the transition to AI than people realize. — tap to centre the map on it The world is much earlier in thetransition to AI than peoplerealize. Last stated 2 weeks ago 19 Oct 2026 AO Anton Osika — holds since 2026-10-19 — tap for who they are Same subject: The importance of rigorous proof may increase in an age of AI. — tap to centre the map on it The importance of rigorous proof mayincrease in an age of AI. Last stated 3 months ago 26 Jul 2026 TG Timothy Gowers — holds since 2026-07-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI inference is going to grow enormously over the next few years. — tap to centre the map on it AI inference is going to growenormously over the next few years. Last stated 4 months ago 22 Jun 2026 MV Mike Vernal — holds since 2026-06-22 — tap for who they are Same subject: The one safe bet about AI is that models will improve, so what a company has to build is an organisation that gets better as models get better. — tap to centre the map on it The one safe bet about AI is thatmodels will improve, so what acompany has to build is anorganisation that gets better asmodels get better. Last stated a year ago 16 Oct 2025 DF Dylan Field — holds since 2025-10-16 — tap for who they are Same subject: Industry leaders' predictions about AI are not more reliable than outside observers' because they are shaped by vested commercial interests. — tap to centre the map on it Industry leaders' predictions aboutAI are not more reliable thanoutside observers' because they areshaped by vested commercialinterests. Last stated 2 years ago 18 Dec 2024 AN Arvind Narayanan — holds since 2024-12-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: Most advances in AI have come from algorithms rather than raw hardware, which makes China's army of AI researchers its fundamental advantage. — tap to centre the map on it Most advances in AI have come fromalgorithms rather than raw hardware,which makes China's army of AIresearchers its fundamentaladvantage. Last stated 7 months ago 15 Apr 2026 JH Jensen Huang — holds since 2026-04-15 — tap for who they are Same subject: A PHP vulnerability found with GPT-5.6 Sol will cause havoc this week. — tap to centre the map on it A PHP vulnerability found withGPT-5.6 Sol will cause havoc thisweek. Last stated 2 weeks ago 21 Oct 2026 PS Peter Steinberger — holds since 2026-10-21 — tap for who they are Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as anonprofit and bolt a for-profit armon later, whatever OpenAI's ownhistory suggests. Last stated 3 years ago 18 Mar 2024 SA Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. — tap to centre the map on it Advertising was a necessary phasefor the internet but a momentaryindustry, and an AI people pay foris better because they know theanswers are not influenced byadvertisers. Last stated 3 years ago 18 Mar 2024 SA Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: "I don't know" becomes a kind of superpower when you can work with Claude Code to figure things out. — tap to centre the map on it "I don't know" becomes a kind ofsuperpower when you can work withClaude Code to figure things out. Last stated 8 months ago 19 Mar 2026 KP Kris Puckett — holds since 2026-03-19 — tap for who they are Same subject: A benchmark that ranks Claude Code last while it stays first in use is measuring the wrong thing, and has been for a year. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark that ranks Claude Codelast while it stays first in use ismeasuring the wrong thing, and hasbeen for a year. Last stated 2 months ago 3 Sept 2026 DR Dax Raad — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: A skill is a set of repeatable, specific instructions that augments what Claude Code can do. — tap to centre the map on it A skill is a set of repeatable,specific instructions that augmentswhat Claude Code can do. Last stated 8 months ago 19 Mar 2026 KP Kris Puckett — holds since 2026-03-19 — tap for who they are Same subject: A business making hundreds of millions from an open source project owes it money or contribution, and can be refused its trademarks if it gives neither. — tap to centre the map on it A business making hundreds ofmillions from an open source projectowes it money or contribution, andcan be refused its trademarks if itgives neither. Last stated 2 years ago 26 Sept 2024 MM Matt Mullenweg — holds since 2024-09-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: A codec does not really exist until everyone can decode it. — tap to centre the map on it A codec does not really exist untileveryone can decode it. Last stated 5 months ago 31 May 2026 JK Jean-Baptiste Kempf — holds since 2026-05-31 — tap for who they are Same subject: A company that will not accept a project’s terms is free to go and use a more permissive project instead. — tap to centre the map on it A company that will not accept aproject’s terms is free to go anduse a more permissive projectinstead. Last stated 2 years ago 26 Sept 2024 MM Matt Mullenweg — holds since 2024-09-26 — tap for who they are
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At the centre People who extrapolate from first-principles models have a stronger track record predicting AI progress than those who wait for empirical proof. Last stated 18 Feb 2026 · 9 months ago Holds Samuel Hammond Read this korrent →