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← People who extrapolate from first-principles models have a stronger…
17 connected korrents · 14 moments from 18 Mar 2024 to 21 Oct 2026.
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Read this korrent: People who extrapolate from first-principles models have a stronger track record predicting AI progress than those who wait for empirical proof.
People who extrapolate from first-principles models have a stronger track record predicting AI progress than those who wait for empirical proof.
Last stated 9 months ago
18 Feb 2026
SH
Samuel Hammond — holds since 2026-02-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI models can be more accurate than physical experiments by averaging out noise, incorporating priors from large datasets, and interpolating between data points. — tap to centre the map on it
AI models can be more accurate than physical experiments by averaging out noise, incorporating priors from large datasets, and interpolating between data points.
Last stated 11 months ago
23 Nov 2025
EH
Elliot Hershberg — holds since 2025-11-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: As model complexity grows, it is very likely that AI will perform even better. — tap to centre the map on it
As model complexity grows, it is very likely that AI will perform even better.
Last stated 2 weeks ago
19 Oct 2026
VP
Vinay Prasad — holds since 2026-10-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The world is much earlier in the transition to AI than people realize. — tap to centre the map on it
The world is much earlier in the transition to AI than people realize.
Last stated 2 weeks ago
19 Oct 2026
AO
Anton Osika — holds since 2026-10-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The importance of rigorous proof may increase in an age of AI. — tap to centre the map on it
The importance of rigorous proof may increase in an age of AI.
Last stated 3 months ago
26 Jul 2026
TG
Timothy Gowers — holds since 2026-07-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI inference is going to grow enormously over the next few years. — tap to centre the map on it
AI inference is going to grow enormously over the next few years.
Last stated 4 months ago
22 Jun 2026
MV
Mike Vernal — holds since 2026-06-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The one safe bet about AI is that models will improve, so what a company has to build is an organisation that gets better as models get better. — tap to centre the map on it
The one safe bet about AI is that models will improve, so what a company has to build is an organisation that gets better as models get better.
Last stated a year ago
16 Oct 2025
DF
Dylan Field — holds since 2025-10-16 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Industry leaders' predictions about AI are not more reliable than outside observers' because they are shaped by vested commercial interests. — tap to centre the map on it
Industry leaders' predictions about AI are not more reliable than outside observers' because they are shaped by vested commercial interests.
Last stated 2 years ago
18 Dec 2024
AN
Arvind Narayanan — holds since 2024-12-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Most advances in AI have come from algorithms rather than raw hardware, which makes China's army of AI researchers its fundamental advantage. — tap to centre the map on it
Most advances in AI have come from algorithms rather than raw hardware, which makes China's army of AI researchers its fundamental advantage.
Last stated 7 months ago
15 Apr 2026
JH
Jensen Huang — holds since 2026-04-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A PHP vulnerability found with GPT-5.6 Sol will cause havoc this week. — tap to centre the map on it
A PHP vulnerability found with GPT-5.6 Sol will cause havoc this week.
Last stated 2 weeks ago
21 Oct 2026
PS
Peter Steinberger — holds since 2026-10-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it
A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests.
Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. — tap to centre the map on it
Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers.
Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "I don't know" becomes a kind of superpower when you can work with Claude Code to figure things out. — tap to centre the map on it
"I don't know" becomes a kind of superpower when you can work with Claude Code to figure things out.
Last stated 8 months ago
19 Mar 2026
KP
Kris Puckett — holds since 2026-03-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A benchmark that ranks Claude Code last while it stays first in use is measuring the wrong thing, and has been for a year. — tap to centre the map on it
A benchmark that ranks Claude Code last while it stays first in use is measuring the wrong thing, and has been for a year.
Last stated 2 months ago
3 Sept 2026
DR
Dax Raad — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A skill is a set of repeatable, specific instructions that augments what Claude Code can do. — tap to centre the map on it
A skill is a set of repeatable, specific instructions that augments what Claude Code can do.
Last stated 8 months ago
19 Mar 2026
KP
Kris Puckett — holds since 2026-03-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A business making hundreds of millions from an open source project owes it money or contribution, and can be refused its trademarks if it gives neither. — tap to centre the map on it
A business making hundreds of millions from an open source project owes it money or contribution, and can be refused its trademarks if it gives neither.
Last stated 2 years ago
26 Sept 2024
MM
Matt Mullenweg — holds since 2024-09-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A codec does not really exist until everyone can decode it. — tap to centre the map on it
A codec does not really exist until everyone can decode it.
Last stated 5 months ago
31 May 2026
JK
Jean-Baptiste Kempf — holds since 2026-05-31 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company that will not accept a project’s terms is free to go and use a more permissive project instead. — tap to centre the map on it
A company that will not accept a project’s terms is free to go and use a more permissive project instead.
Last stated 2 years ago
26 Sept 2024
MM
Matt Mullenweg — holds since 2024-09-26 — tap for who they are
same subject or similar wording a cloud: claims about one subject, named for it bar: when it was last stated, on a scale from 2015 to today — full is today a face: someone who holds the claim — tap it for who they are
At the centre
People who extrapolate from first-principles models have a stronger track record predicting AI progress than those who wait for empirical proof.
Last stated 18 Feb 2026 · 9 months ago
Holds Samuel Hammond
Read this korrent →
Similar wording
AI models can be more accurate than physical experiments by averaging out noise, incorporating priors from large datasets, and interpolating between data points.
Last stated 23 Nov 2025 · 11 months ago
Holds Elliot Hershberg
Similar wording
As model complexity grows, it is very likely that AI will perform even better.
Last stated 19 Oct 2026 · 2 weeks ago
Holds Vinay Prasad
Similar wording
The world is much earlier in the transition to AI than people realize.
Last stated 19 Oct 2026 · 2 weeks ago
Holds Anton Osika
Similar wording
The importance of rigorous proof may increase in an age of AI.
Last stated 26 Jul 2026 · 3 months ago
Holds Timothy Gowers
Similar wording
AI inference is going to grow enormously over the next few years.
Last stated 22 Jun 2026 · 4 months ago
Holds Mike Vernal
Similar wording
The one safe bet about AI is that models will improve, so what a company has to build is an organisation that gets better as models get better.
Last stated 16 Oct 2025 · a year ago
Holds Dylan Field
Similar wording
Industry leaders' predictions about AI are not more reliable than outside observers' because they are shaped by vested commercial interests.
Last stated 18 Dec 2024 · 2 years ago
Holds Arvind Narayanan
Similar wording
Most advances in AI have come from algorithms rather than raw hardware, which makes China's army of AI researchers its fundamental advantage.
Last stated 15 Apr 2026 · 7 months ago
Holds Jensen Huang
Same subject: OpenAI
A PHP vulnerability found with GPT-5.6 Sol will cause havoc this week.
Last stated 21 Oct 2026 · 2 weeks ago
Holds Peter Steinberger
Same subject: OpenAI
A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests.
Last stated 18 Mar 2024 · 3 years ago
Holds Sam Altman
Same subject: OpenAI
Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers.
Last stated 18 Mar 2024 · 3 years ago
Holds Sam Altman
Same subject: Anthropic
"I don't know" becomes a kind of superpower when you can work with Claude Code to figure things out.
Last stated 19 Mar 2026 · 8 months ago
Holds Kris Puckett
Same subject: Anthropic
A benchmark that ranks Claude Code last while it stays first in use is measuring the wrong thing, and has been for a year.
Last stated 3 Sept 2026 · 2 months ago
Holds Dax Raad
Same subject: Anthropic
A skill is a set of repeatable, specific instructions that augments what Claude Code can do.
Last stated 19 Mar 2026 · 8 months ago
Holds Kris Puckett
Same subject: open source
A business making hundreds of millions from an open source project owes it money or contribution, and can be refused its trademarks if it gives neither.
Last stated 26 Sept 2024 · 2 years ago
Holds Matt Mullenweg
Same subject: open source
A codec does not really exist until everyone can decode it.
Last stated 31 May 2026 · 5 months ago
Holds Jean-Baptiste Kempf
Same subject: open source
A company that will not accept a project’s terms is free to go and use a more permissive project instead.
Last stated 26 Sept 2024 · 2 years ago
Holds Matt Mullenweg