People who extrapolate from first-principles models have a stronger track record predicting AI progress than those who wait for empirical proof.

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• The one safe bet about AI is that models will improve, so what a company has to build is an organisation that gets better as models get better. DFDylan Field16 Oct 2025similar wordingCo-founder and chief executive of Figma
• Most advances in AI have come from algorithms rather than raw hardware, which makes China's army of AI researchers its fundamental advantage. JHJensen Huang15 Apr 2026similar wordingCo-founder and CEO of NVIDIA since 1993
• Qualitative leaps in AI capability from merely scaling up models are a rational necessity rather than an empirical mystery. SHSamuel Hammond5 Jun 2025similar wordingSenior economist at the Foundation for American Innovation
• Technologies are almost always preceded by slightly worse versions of themselves, and there is no reason for AI to be the exception. PCPaul Christiano24 Feb 2018similar wordingAI alignment researcher
• Underestimating near-term AI progress is itself a danger, which is why researchers should register their forecasts in public. ACAjeya Cotra29 Aug 2023similar wordingAI researcher and grantmaker

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