Tap a claim on the ring to put it at the centre.
← Every cognitive ingredient for farming and for states was already in…
17 connected korrents · 18 moments from 7 Sept 2008 to 7 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under America
America
Everything filed under China
China
Everything filed under tariffs
tariffs
Everything filed under AGI
AGI
Everything filed under LLMs
LLMs
Everything filed under AI and science
AI and science
Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject
Read this korrent: Every cognitive ingredient for farming and for states was already in place tens of thousands of years before either appeared, so what humanity was waiting on was not biology.
Every cognitive ingredient for farming and for states was already in place tens of thousands of years before either appeared, so what humanity was waiting on was not biology.
Last stated 6 months ago
8 May 2026
DR
David Reich — holds since 2026-05-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The Bronze Age, not the invention of farming, was the shock the human genome reacted to most strongly. — tap to centre the map on it
The Bronze Age, not the invention of farming, was the shock the human genome reacted to most strongly.
Last stated 6 months ago
8 May 2026
DR
David Reich — holds since 2026-05-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival. — tap to centre the map on it
Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival.
Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: For the whole of human history the bottleneck on progress has been getting a group of smart people together around a shared goal. — tap to centre the map on it
For the whole of human history the bottleneck on progress has been getting a group of smart people together around a shared goal.
Last stated 3 months ago
29 Jul 2026
AW
Alexandr Wang — holds since 2026-07-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A civilization that advanced and that large would have left something behind, and archaeologists find fish scales. — tap to centre the map on it
A civilization that advanced and that large would have left something behind, and archaeologists find fish scales.
Last stated 2 years ago
30 Sept 2024
EB
Ed Barnhart — holds since 2024-09-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The people of the ancient world were not less advanced than we are; they were probably indistinguishable from us. — tap to centre the map on it
The people of the ancient world were not less advanced than we are; they were probably indistinguishable from us.
Last stated 10 months ago
12 Dec 2025
IF
Irving Finkel — holds since 2025-12-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Humanity's advantage is accumulated shared knowledge rather than higher intelligence — and AI models, which vanish with their context window, have none of it. — tap to centre the map on it
Humanity's advantage is accumulated shared knowledge rather than higher intelligence — and AI models, which vanish with their context window, have none of it.
Last stated 4 months ago
26 Jun 2026
NB
Noam Brown — holds since 2026-06-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. — tap to centre the map on it
Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate.
Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Scientific discovery is ready to be rewritten, because for all of history it has run at the speed of smart humans remembering what other smart humans learned. — tap to centre the map on it
Scientific discovery is ready to be rewritten, because for all of history it has run at the speed of smart humans remembering what other smart humans learned.
Last stated 2 months ago
10 Aug 2026
FL
Fei-Fei Li — holds since 2026-08-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A century of fire suppression policy in the American West has dangerously overloaded forests with fuel and made megafires more likely. — tap to centre the map on it
A century of fire suppression policy in the American West has dangerously overloaded forests with fuel and made megafires more likely.
Last stated 2 months ago
22 Aug 2026
JP
Jennifer Pahlka — holds since 2026-08-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A Chinese crewed landing on the Moon before America returns would be a defeat for the free world. — tap to centre the map on it
A Chinese crewed landing on the Moon before America returns would be a defeat for the free world.
Last stated 2 months ago
18 Aug 2026
CH
Casey Handmer — holds since 2025-10-31 — tap for who they are
EB
Eric Berger — holds since 2026-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A city's first rail line comes in at a reasonable cost and every line after it does not, because the follow-up outgrows the in-house team that oversaw the pilot. — tap to centre the map on it
A city's first rail line comes in at a reasonable cost and every line after it does not, because the follow-up outgrows the in-house team that oversaw the pilot.
Last stated 2 years ago
7 Dec 2024
AL
Alon Levy — holds since 2024-12-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A continental army's first mission is to keep the regime in power, not to defend the border — which is what the People's Liberation Army is for. — tap to centre the map on it
A continental army's first mission is to keep the regime in power, not to defend the border — which is what the People's Liberation Army is for.
Last stated 4 months ago
9 Jun 2026
SP
Sarah Paine — holds since 2026-06-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it. — tap to centre the map on it
A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it.
Last stated a year ago
15 May 2025
HR
Hannah Ritchie — holds since 2025-05-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country's scientific trajectory can keep advancing even if political instability or economic uncertainty slows its broader progress. — tap to centre the map on it
A country's scientific trajectory can keep advancing even if political instability or economic uncertainty slows its broader progress.
Last stated 7 months ago
21 Mar 2026
TG
Tanner Greer — holds since 2026-03-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country should raise revenue by tariffing foreign countries rather than by taxing its own citizens. — tap to centre the map on it
A country should raise revenue by tariffing foreign countries rather than by taxing its own citizens.
Last stated 2 years ago
20 Jan 2025
DT
Donald Trump — holds since 2025-01-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A trade dispute escalated by aggressive tariffs can still end in a negotiated outcome that leaves all sides better off. — tap to centre the map on it
A trade dispute escalated by aggressive tariffs can still end in a negotiated outcome that leaves all sides better off.
Last stated a year ago
30 May 2025
GS
Guy Spier — holds since 2025-05-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: America's large trade deficit in manufactured goods means fewer US manufacturing jobs than balanced trade would. — tap to centre the map on it
America's large trade deficit in manufactured goods means fewer US manufacturing jobs than balanced trade would.
Last stated 2 months ago
7 Sept 2026
PK
Paul Krugman — holds since 2026-09-07 — tap for who they are
same subject or similar wording a cloud: claims about one subject, named for it bar: when it was last stated, on a scale from 2008 to today (stretched back to the oldest claim here) — full is today a face: someone who holds the claim — tap it for who they are faded, dashed ring: they no longer hold it — they changed their mind
At the centre
Every cognitive ingredient for farming and for states was already in place tens of thousands of years before either appeared, so what humanity was waiting on was not biology.
Last stated 8 May 2026 · 6 months ago
Holds David Reich
Read this korrent →
Similar wording
The Bronze Age, not the invention of farming, was the shock the human genome reacted to most strongly.
Last stated 8 May 2026 · 6 months ago
Holds David Reich
Similar wording
Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival.
Last stated 13 Dec 2023 · 3 years ago
No longer holds Scott Aaronson
Similar wording
For the whole of human history the bottleneck on progress has been getting a group of smart people together around a shared goal.
Last stated 29 Jul 2026 · 3 months ago
Holds Alexandr Wang
Similar wording
A civilization that advanced and that large would have left something behind, and archaeologists find fish scales.
Last stated 30 Sept 2024 · 2 years ago
Holds Ed Barnhart
Similar wording
The people of the ancient world were not less advanced than we are; they were probably indistinguishable from us.
Last stated 12 Dec 2025 · 10 months ago
Holds Irving Finkel
Similar wording
Humanity's advantage is accumulated shared knowledge rather than higher intelligence — and AI models, which vanish with their context window, have none of it.
Last stated 26 Jun 2026 · 4 months ago
Holds Noam Brown
Similar wording
Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate.
Last stated 13 Dec 2023 · 3 years ago
No longer holds Scott Aaronson
Similar wording
Scientific discovery is ready to be rewritten, because for all of history it has run at the speed of smart humans remembering what other smart humans learned.
Last stated 10 Aug 2026 · 2 months ago
Holds Fei-Fei Li
Same subject: America
A century of fire suppression policy in the American West has dangerously overloaded forests with fuel and made megafires more likely.
Last stated 22 Aug 2026 · 2 months ago
Holds Jennifer Pahlka
Same subject: America
A Chinese crewed landing on the Moon before America returns would be a defeat for the free world.
Last stated 18 Aug 2026 · 2 months ago
Holds Casey Handmer Eric Berger
Same subject: America
A city's first rail line comes in at a reasonable cost and every line after it does not, because the follow-up outgrows the in-house team that oversaw the pilot.
Last stated 7 Dec 2024 · 2 years ago
Holds Alon Levy
Same subject: China
A continental army's first mission is to keep the regime in power, not to defend the border — which is what the People's Liberation Army is for.
Last stated 9 Jun 2026 · 4 months ago
Holds Sarah Paine
Same subject: China
A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it.
Last stated 15 May 2025 · a year ago
Holds Hannah Ritchie
Same subject: China
A country's scientific trajectory can keep advancing even if political instability or economic uncertainty slows its broader progress.
Last stated 21 Mar 2026 · 7 months ago
Holds Tanner Greer
Same subject: tariffs
A country should raise revenue by tariffing foreign countries rather than by taxing its own citizens.
Last stated 20 Jan 2025 · 2 years ago
Holds Donald Trump
Same subject: tariffs
A trade dispute escalated by aggressive tariffs can still end in a negotiated outcome that leaves all sides better off.
Last stated 30 May 2025 · a year ago
Holds Guy Spier
Same subject: tariffs
America's large trade deficit in manufactured goods means fewer US manufacturing jobs than balanced trade would.
Last stated 7 Sept 2026 · 2 months ago
Holds Paul Krugman