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← Climate models may be underestimating how much future warming will occur.

17 connected korrents · 16 moments on record from 5 Nov 2019 to 15 Sept 2026.

Everything filed under AGI AGI Everything filed under climate change climate change Everything filed under energy energy Everything filed under measuring intelligence measuring intelligence Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: Climate models may be underestimating how much future warming will occur. Climate models may be underestimating howmuch future warming will occur. Last stated 2 weeks ago 4 Sept 2026 AD Andrew Dessler — holds since 2026-09-04 — tap for who they are Same subject: Temperatures from high-emissions climate scenarios are a plausible upper bound on future warming, even though the emissions themselves are unlikely. — tap to centre the map on it Temperatures from high-emissionsclimate scenarios are a plausibleupper bound on future warming, eventhough the emissions themselves areunlikely. Last stated 2 weeks ago 4 Sept 2026 AD Andrew Dessler — holds since 2026-09-04 — tap for who they are Same subject: Climate models are underestimating how intense heatwaves become at a given level of global warming. — tap to centre the map on it Climate models are underestimatinghow intense heatwaves become at agiven level of global warming. Last stated 2 months ago 7 Jul 2026 AD Andrew Dessler — holds since 2026-07-07 — tap for who they are Same subject: Underestimating near-term AI progress is itself a danger, which is why researchers should register their forecasts in public. — tap to centre the map on it Underestimating near-term AIprogress is itself a danger, whichis why researchers should registertheir forecasts in public. Last stated 3 years ago 29 Aug 2023 AC Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are Same subject: People consistently underestimate how many of their compatriots believe in climate change and want action on it. — tap to centre the map on it People consistently underestimatehow many of their compatriotsbelieve in climate change and wantaction on it. Last stated 8 months ago 13 Jan 2026 HR Hannah Ritchie — holds since 2026-01-13 — tap for who they are Same subject: Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity to doubled CO2 is closer to 3.5°C than 4.5°C — tap to centre the map on it Earth's equilibrium climatesensitivity to doubled CO2 is closerto 3.5°C than 4.5°C Last stated 2 months ago 30 Jul 2026 ZH Zeke Hausfather — holds since 2026-07-30 — tap for who they are Same subject: There is a coin-flip chance that AGI arrives by 2030. — tap to centre the map on it There is a coin-flip chance that AGIarrives by 2030. Last stated a year ago 23 Jul 2025 DH Demis Hassabis — holds since 2025-07-23 — tap for who they are Same subject: What has been seen of climate change so far is only a foretaste of worse disasters to come. — tap to centre the map on it What has been seen of climate changeso far is only a foretaste of worsedisasters to come. Last stated a week ago 14 Sept 2026 PK Paul Krugman — holds since 2026-09-14 — tap for who they are Same subject: Climate change's effects will unfold as sudden catastrophic events rather than as steadily accumulating small changes. — tap to centre the map on it Climate change's effects will unfoldas sudden catastrophic events ratherthan as steadily accumulating smallchanges. Last stated 2 months ago 29 Jul 2026 AD Andrew Dessler — holds since 2026-07-29 — tap for who they are Same subject: A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. — tap to centre the map on it A country outside the AI supplychain should just buy the index —which works only in the world whereAI ends up commoditised rather thanconcentrated. Last stated 4 months ago 4 Jun 2026 AI Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are Same subject: A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean. — tap to centre the map on it A human being is not an AGI: we lacka huge amount of knowledge and relyon continual learning instead, socontinual learning is whatsuperintelligence should mean. Last stated 10 months ago 25 Nov 2025 IS Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are Same subject: A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. — tap to centre the map on it A language model is no substitutefor a well-specified conventionalalgorithm, so it cannot simply bedropped into a complex problem andtrusted. Last stated a year ago 7 Jun 2025 GM Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-06-07 — tap for who they are Same subject: A true artificial general intelligence cannot exist without being recognized as a moral subject. — tap to centre the map on it A true artificial generalintelligence cannot exist withoutbeing recognized as a moral subject. Last stated a year ago 10 Jun 2025 SH Samuel Hammond — holds since 2025-06-10 — tap for who they are Same subject: A unit of AI inference needs to be defined, for example via a chain of increasingly hard problems where each consecutive pair is solvable by one model. — tap to centre the map on it A unit of AI inference needs to bedefined, for example via a chain ofincreasingly hard problems whereeach consecutive pair is solvable byone model. Last stated 6 days ago 15 Sept 2026 PG Paul Graham — holds since 2026-09-15 — tap for who they are Same subject: Both the special-purpose-programs view and the blank-slate view of human intelligence are likely incorrect. — tap to centre the map on it Both the special-purpose-programsview and the blank-slate view ofhuman intelligence are likelyincorrect. Last stated 7 years ago 5 Nov 2019 FC François Chollet — holds since 2019-11-05 — tap for who they are Same subject: "Food from thin air" is not from thin air: it runs on water, minerals, ammonia and industrial plant. — tap to centre the map on it "Food from thin air" is not fromthin air: it runs on water,minerals, ammonia and industrialplant. Last stated 3 months ago 30 Jun 2026 CS Chris Smaje — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are Same subject: A future of constrained energy will need more people working the land, and that is not the same as going back to the past. — tap to centre the map on it A future of constrained energy willneed more people working the land,and that is not the same as goingback to the past. Last stated 3 months ago 30 Jun 2026 CS Chris Smaje — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are Same subject: A handful of AI agents is not a handful of colleagues, because agents agree with you constantly and colleagues tell you where you are wrong. — tap to centre the map on it A handful of AI agents is not ahandful of colleagues, becauseagents agree with you constantly andcolleagues tell you where you arewrong. Last stated 6 months ago 22 Mar 2026 NF Nicole Forsgren — holds since 2026-03-22 — tap for who they are
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At the centre Climate models may be underestimating how much future warming will occur. Last stated 4 Sept 2026 · 2 weeks ago Holds Andrew Dessler Read this korrent →