Roger Pielke Jr.
Political scientist who studies science policy, disasters and climate; writes The Honest Broker newsletter on climate, energy, sport and science politics. Author of The Climate Fix (2010) and The Rightful Place of Science: Disasters and Climate Change.
Roger Pielke Jr. did not write this page.
We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.
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Their wordsyesterday's op-ed demonstrates how the new CMIP7 climate scenarios - discussed in detail here at THB - can be used to smuggle the implausibly extreme and retired RCP8.5 right back into discussions of climate science and policy.
↗A Trojan Horse effort to place RCP8.5 back at the center of climate science and policyrogerpielkejr.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsHowever, such extensions are not created to represent plausible futures, and thus they provide no basis for forecasts or plausible projections of the future.
↗A Trojan Horse effort to place RCP8.5 back at the center of climate science and policyrogerpielkejr.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Our reading
The CMIP7 HIGH scenario presented out to 2150 is essentially a repackaged version of RCP8.5.
Their wordsGoing forward, we should recognize that the CMIP7 HIGH scenario presented out to 2150 is just a repackaged RCP8.5.
↗A Trojan Horse effort to place RCP8.5 back at the center of climate science and policyrogerpielkejr.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 6 days earlier
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Their wordsThese scientists all well know that "climate policy" - however construed - cannot reduce the number or intensity of extreme weather events in any meaningful or detectable way in my lifetime, or even my future grandkids' lifetimes.
↗Taking Us for Foolsrogerpielkejr.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Our reading
The WWA methodology allows any variable with an increasing trend to be attributed to climate change.
Their wordsFurther, under the WWA methodology any time series with a trend, up or down, - and in any context - can be "attributed to climate change."
↗Taking Us for Foolsrogerpielkejr.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsThe creators of EEA have always been open about the fact that their claimed attribution of the likelihood or intensity of an event to causes is assumed, not shown or investigated.
↗Taking Us for Foolsrogerpielkejr.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 2 weeks earlier
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Our reading
The National Academy of Sciences has been acting as a political advocate beyond its mandate.
Their wordsThe scandal is that the NASEM has been acting well beyond this mandate as a political advocate - trading on its authority and legitimacy to serve special interests, whether those are of its non-governmental funders, those charged with executing its projects, or its leaders.
↗The National Academy of Advocacyrogerpielkejr.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsIn 2026 there is not much that distinguishes the storied National Academy of Sciences from the myriad partisan NGOs advocating for everything under the sun - like the Union of Concerned Scientists or The Heartland Institute. The NASEM has become just another 501 (c)(3) organization pushing an agenda.
↗The National Academy of Advocacyrogerpielkejr.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsMuch reform is needed, but an important and straightforward first step would be for Congress to amend the Federal Charter for the NAS to prohibit funding from non-governmental organizations and require that all studies be requested by federal agencies or Congressional committees.
↗The National Academy of Advocacyrogerpielkejr.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 3 days earlier
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Their wordsA precipitating event - a hurricane, an earthquake, or a glacial/rock collapse - is necessary for a disaster to result, but that event is never sufficient.
↗What Actually Caused the Nepal Disasterrogerpielkejr.substack.com 1st of 2 in this piece
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Their wordsHuman exposure and vulnerability are also necessary elements, and almost always the ones that we can most effectively influence in the very near term.
↗What Actually Caused the Nepal Disasterrogerpielkejr.substack.com 2nd of 2 in this piece
- 4 days earlier
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Their wordsRCP8.5 was never a "worst case scenario" and its assumptions are not accurately characterized as "unlikely" but rather, the scenario is implausible and already falsified.
↗I Wouldn't Start From Hererogerpielkejr.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsthe administration's proposed amendment to NCA5 cannot succeed, because NCA5's problems are systemic and irreparable. NCA5 is beyond fixing.
↗I Wouldn't Start From Hererogerpielkejr.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsIn my areas of expertise the NCA5 failed to accurately represent the literature it was supposedly assessing, in favor of cherry picking and misrepresentations.
↗I Wouldn't Start From Hererogerpielkejr.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 4 days earlier
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Their wordsThe notion of climate change has collapsed our discussions of complex environmental-social-political issues into a cartoonish characterization of "climate change" as an all-purpose causal agent responsible for just about everything that people don't like
↗Climate Change is Making Us Stupidrogerpielkejr.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsHow we talk, and apparently think, about climate change has become stupider.
↗Climate Change is Making Us Stupidrogerpielkejr.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsThe NASEM has defined "climate change" in a way that makes detection (a la IPCC) unnecessary and attribution (a la IPCC) assumed away.
↗Climate Change is Making Us Stupidrogerpielkejr.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece