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A Trojan Horse effort to place RCP8.5 back at the center of climate science and policy

Roger Pielke Jr. · 23 Sept 2026

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Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.

  1. Our reading

    The new CMIP7 climate scenarios can be used to reintroduce the implausible RCP8.5 scenario into climate science and policy discussions.

    Their wordsyesterday's op-ed demonstrates how the new CMIP7 climate scenarios - discussed in detail here at THB - can be used to smuggle the implausibly extreme and retired RCP8.5 right back into discussions of climate science and policy.

  2. Our reading

    The CMIP7 scenario extensions are not intended to represent plausible future forecasts.

    Their wordsHowever, such extensions are not created to represent plausible futures, and thus they provide no basis for forecasts or plausible projections of the future.

  3. Our reading

    The CMIP7 HIGH scenario presented out to 2150 is essentially a repackaged version of RCP8.5.

    Their wordsGoing forward, we should recognize that the CMIP7 HIGH scenario presented out to 2150 is just a repackaged RCP8.5.

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