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The Worst Case Is Still on the Table

Andrew Dessler · 4 Sept 2026

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Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.

  1. the temperatures produced under RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 are a reasonable upper bound on what the future climate might be.
  2. Keeping the RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 runs as a plausible upper limit is particularly important given that recent research has emphasized the possibility that models are underestimating future warming.
  3. In fact, conventional risk management tells us that, when consequences are severe, low-probability extreme outcomes can determine the response.

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