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← Advice is unreliable because it reflects hindsight, survivorship, and confirmation bias.
17 connected korrents · 17 moments from 21 Feb 2017 to 9 Oct 2026.
Everything filed under behavioural science
behavioural science
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management
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attitude change
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motivation
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writing
Everything filed under optimism
optimism Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Advice is unreliable because it reflects hindsight, survivorship, and confirmation bias. Advice is unreliable because it reflects hindsight, survivorship, and confirmation bias. Last stated a year ago
9 Jun 2025
KN
Ken Norton — holds since 2025-06-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Most advice people give is shaped by survivorship bias and cannot be reliably generalized to others. — tap to centre the map on it Most advice people give is shaped by survivorship bias and cannot be reliably generalized to others. Last stated 3 months ago
16 Aug 2026
RK
Rohit Krishnan — holds since 2026-08-16 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Even when advice is understood and believed, people discount it by assuming their own case is the exception. — tap to centre the map on it Even when advice is understood and believed, people discount it by assuming their own case is the exception. Last stated 4 years ago
14 Mar 2023
AM
Adam Mastroianni — holds since 2023-03-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Advice is often constrained by the utterances within the advice itself. — tap to centre the map on it Advice is often constrained by the utterances within the advice itself. Last stated 4 years ago
26 Jan 2023
VV
Visakan Veerasamy — holds since 2023-01-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Failures are more often explained by time pressure than by stupidity or malice. — tap to centre the map on it Failures are more often explained by time pressure than by stupidity or malice. Last stated 3 months ago
17 Aug 2026
FS
Fabien Sanglard — holds since 2026-08-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Strong intuitions that seem clear lack a way of calibrating, which makes people wildly overconfident about what they know and reluctant to accept they may be wrong. — tap to centre the map on it Strong intuitions that seem clear lack a way of calibrating, which makes people wildly overconfident about what they know and reluctant to accept they may be wrong. Last stated 7 years ago
12 Oct 2019
DK
Daniel Kahneman — holds since 2019-10-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Far more probability estimates err on the over-optimistic side than the under-optimistic side. — tap to centre the map on it Far more probability estimates err on the over-optimistic side than the under-optimistic side. Last stated 8 years ago
14 May 2018
SP
Shane Parrish — holds since 2018-05-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Debiasing has largely failed, and that is fine, because the biases identified are experience-built heuristics that only look like biases in hindsight. — tap to centre the map on it Debiasing has largely failed, and that is fine, because the biases identified are experience-built heuristics that only look like biases in hindsight. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: People tend to think they understand the future better than they actually do — tap to centre the map on it People tend to think they understand the future better than they actually do Last stated 4 years ago
3 Mar 2023
MM
Michael Mauboussin — holds since 2023-03-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "Follow your skill" is better advice for young people than "follow your passion". — tap to centre the map on it "Follow your skill" is better advice for young people than "follow your passion". Last stated 10 months ago
9 Jan 2026
AB
Andrew Bosworth — holds since 2026-01-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "Proxy action" - an easy task that feels like progress - lets people avoid the hard work of actually making progress. — tap to centre the map on it "Proxy action" - an easy task that feels like progress - lets people avoid the hard work of actually making progress. Last stated 2 months ago
8 Sept 2026
JF
Jason Feifer — holds since 2026-09-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A drop in agency is the earliest sign of burnout, arriving before you consciously notice you are burning out. — tap to centre the map on it A drop in agency is the earliest sign of burnout, arriving before you consciously notice you are burning out. Last stated 3 years ago
10 Jan 2024
CH
Cate Hall — holds since 2024-01-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: 2016 was when a large part of the West stopped believing the story that globalization and liberalization would create paradise — tap to centre the map on it 2016 was when a large part of the West stopped believing the story that globalization and liberalization would create paradise Last stated 10 years ago
21 Feb 2017
YH
Yuval Noah Harari — holds since 2017-02-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Accurately informing people about the climate crisis increases their desire to act. — tap to centre the map on it Accurately informing people about the climate crisis increases their desire to act. Last stated 4 weeks ago
9 Oct 2026
BM
Bill McKibben — holds since 2026-10-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI is not the cause of the breakdown of honor codes but an accelerant of a culture shift already under way. — tap to centre the map on it AI is not the cause of the breakdown of honor codes but an accelerant of a culture shift already under way. Last stated 6 months ago
16 May 2026
AR
Asha Rangappa — holds since 2026-05-16 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "Corporate communications" is now an oxymoron, since nothing meaningful can be communicated by a faceless committee. — tap to centre the map on it "Corporate communications" is now an oxymoron, since nothing meaningful can be communicated by a faceless committee. Last stated 3 years ago
19 Mar 2024
LM
Lulu Cheng Meservey — holds since 2024-03-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "Hire great people and get out of their way" is dangerous advice for anyone in a leadership role. — tap to centre the map on it "Hire great people and get out of their way" is dangerous advice for anyone in a leadership role. Last stated 2 years ago
17 Dec 2024
CM
Charity Majors — holds since 2024-12-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "Hire smart people and get out of their way" is bad management advice; leaders should stay closely involved, building trust and working through hard problems with their people to create alignment. — tap to centre the map on it "Hire smart people and get out of their way" is bad management advice; leaders should stay closely involved, building trust and working through hard problems with their people to create alignment. Last stated 4 weeks ago
9 Oct 2026
CR
Carl Rivera — holds since 2026-10-09 — tap for who they are