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← Advice is unreliable because it reflects hindsight, survivorship, and confirmation bias.
17 connected korrents · 16 moments on record from 22 Feb 2022 to 15 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under behavioural science
behavioural science
Everything filed under attitude change
attitude change
Everything filed under epidemiology
epidemiology Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Advice is unreliable because it reflects hindsight, survivorship, and confirmation bias. Advice is unreliable because it reflects hindsight, survivorship, and confirmation bias. Last stated a year ago
9 Jun 2025
KN
Ken Norton — holds since 2025-06-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Most advice people give is shaped by survivorship bias and cannot be reliably generalized to others. — tap to centre the map on it Most advice people give is shaped by survivorship bias and cannot be reliably generalized to others. Last stated a month ago
16 Aug 2026
RK
Rohit Krishnan — holds since 2026-08-16 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Even when advice is understood and believed, people discount it by assuming their own case is the exception. — tap to centre the map on it Even when advice is understood and believed, people discount it by assuming their own case is the exception. Last stated 4 years ago
14 Mar 2023
AM
Adam Mastroianni — holds since 2023-03-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Failures are more often explained by time pressure than by stupidity or malice. — tap to centre the map on it Failures are more often explained by time pressure than by stupidity or malice. Last stated a month ago
17 Aug 2026
FS
Fabien Sanglard — holds since 2026-08-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Debiasing has largely failed, and that is fine, because the biases identified are experience-built heuristics that only look like biases in hindsight. — tap to centre the map on it Debiasing has largely failed, and that is fine, because the biases identified are experience-built heuristics that only look like biases in hindsight. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Publishing industry claims to predict how trends will play out, but such predictions are unreliable. — tap to centre the map on it Publishing industry claims to predict how trends will play out, but such predictions are unreliable. Last stated 6 days ago
15 Sept 2026
LM
Lincoln Michel — holds since 2026-09-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Thinking harder about a decision has diminishing returns because reality is inherently unknowable. — tap to centre the map on it Thinking harder about a decision has diminishing returns because reality is inherently unknowable. Last stated 5 years ago
22 Feb 2022
NN
Neel Nanda — holds since 2022-02-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Smarter people hold their opinions firmly but revise them quickly when new information appears, while clinging to consistency for its own sake is a mark of lower intelligence. — tap to centre the map on it Smarter people hold their opinions firmly but revise them quickly when new information appears, while clinging to consistency for its own sake is a mark of lower intelligence. Last stated 2 weeks ago
7 Sept 2026
PL
Pieter Levels — holds since 2026-09-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The probabilistic nature of AI models makes their outputs inherently unreliable. — tap to centre the map on it The probabilistic nature of AI models makes their outputs inherently unreliable. Last stated 2 years ago
25 Jul 2024
CH
Chip Huyen — holds since 2024-07-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A cancellation-reason drop-down measures list order rather than reasons: randomise the options and every one of them gets picked equally. — tap to centre the map on it A cancellation-reason drop-down measures list order rather than reasons: randomise the options and every one of them gets picked equally. Last stated 8 months ago
25 Jan 2026
JC
Jason Cohen — holds since 2026-01-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A decision cannot be judged by its outcome, because good decisions fail through no fault of the decider and bad ones succeed by luck. — tap to centre the map on it A decision cannot be judged by its outcome, because good decisions fail through no fault of the decider and bad ones succeed by luck. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A habit has to be established before it can be improved, so standardizing a behavior comes before optimizing it. — tap to centre the map on it A habit has to be established before it can be improved, so standardizing a behavior comes before optimizing it. Last stated 9 months ago
1 Jan 2026
JC
James Clear — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Higher male global TB burden may be in large part due to population-scale factors such as employment, social contacts and health-seeking behaviours. — tap to centre the map on it Higher male global TB burden may be in large part due to population-scale factors such as employment, social contacts and health-seeking behaviours. Last stated 8 months ago
14 Jan 2026
KY
Kit Yates — holds since 2026-01-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Infectious diseases get far less industry R&D per death than non-communicable ones, because they mostly kill people in countries where a cure pays less. — tap to centre the map on it Infectious diseases get far less industry R&D per death than non-communicable ones, because they mostly kill people in countries where a cure pays less. Last stated a year ago
29 May 2025
JT
Jacob Trefethen — holds since 2025-05-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Some diseases are technologically solved and still spread, because the remaining bottleneck is trust rather than science. — tap to centre the map on it Some diseases are technologically solved and still spread, because the remaining bottleneck is trust rather than science. Last stated a year ago
2 Aug 2025
JT
Jacob Trefethen — holds since 2025-08-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Deliberately shifting a culture is far harder now that everyone can personalise their media and skip past anything they dislike. — tap to centre the map on it Deliberately shifting a culture is far harder now that everyone can personalise their media and skip past anything they dislike. Last stated a year ago
1 Jul 2025
AE
Alice Evans — holds since 2025-07-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Imaginary social trends can spuriously shape people's real beliefs and behaviors. — tap to centre the map on it Imaginary social trends can spuriously shape people's real beliefs and behaviors. Last stated 5 years ago
7 Mar 2022
AM
Adam Mastroianni — holds since 2022-03-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Misperceptions of attitude change may hinder efforts to understand social worlds, distort democracy, and turn imaginary trends into real ones. — tap to centre the map on it Misperceptions of attitude change may hinder efforts to understand social worlds, distort democracy, and turn imaginary trends into real ones. Last stated 5 years ago
7 Mar 2022
AM
Adam Mastroianni — holds since 2022-03-07 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Advice is unreliable because it reflects hindsight, survivorship, and confirmation bias.
Holds Read this korrent →
Most advice people give is shaped by survivorship bias and cannot be reliably generalized to others.
Holds
Even when advice is understood and believed, people discount it by assuming their own case is the exception.
Holds
Failures are more often explained by time pressure than by stupidity or malice.
Holds
Debiasing has largely failed, and that is fine, because the biases identified are experience-built heuristics that only look like biases in hindsight.
Holds
Publishing industry claims to predict how trends will play out, but such predictions are unreliable.
Holds
Thinking harder about a decision has diminishing returns because reality is inherently unknowable.
Holds
Smarter people hold their opinions firmly but revise them quickly when new information appears, while clinging to consistency for its own sake is a mark of lower intelligence.
Holds
The probabilistic nature of AI models makes their outputs inherently unreliable.
Holds
A cancellation-reason drop-down measures list order rather than reasons: randomise the options and every one of them gets picked equally.
Holds
A decision cannot be judged by its outcome, because good decisions fail through no fault of the decider and bad ones succeed by luck.
Holds
A habit has to be established before it can be improved, so standardizing a behavior comes before optimizing it.
Holds
Higher male global TB burden may be in large part due to population-scale factors such as employment, social contacts and health-seeking behaviours.
Holds
Infectious diseases get far less industry R&D per death than non-communicable ones, because they mostly kill people in countries where a cure pays less.
Holds
Some diseases are technologically solved and still spread, because the remaining bottleneck is trust rather than science.
Holds
Deliberately shifting a culture is far harder now that everyone can personalise their media and skip past anything they dislike.
Holds
Imaginary social trends can spuriously shape people's real beliefs and behaviors.
Holds
Misperceptions of attitude change may hinder efforts to understand social worlds, distort democracy, and turn imaginary trends into real ones.
Holds