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← Most advice people give is shaped by survivorship bias and cannot be reliably generalized to others.
17 connected korrents · 15 moments on record from 9 Sept 2020 to 1 Sept 2026.
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ambition Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Most advice people give is shaped by survivorship bias and cannot be reliably generalized to others. Most advice people give is shaped by survivorship bias and cannot be reliably generalized to others. Last stated a month ago
16 Aug 2026
RK
Rohit Krishnan — holds since 2026-08-16 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Advice is unreliable because it reflects hindsight, survivorship, and confirmation bias. — tap to centre the map on it Advice is unreliable because it reflects hindsight, survivorship, and confirmation bias. Last stated a year ago
9 Jun 2025
KN
Ken Norton — holds since 2025-06-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Even when advice is understood and believed, people discount it by assuming their own case is the exception. — tap to centre the map on it Even when advice is understood and believed, people discount it by assuming their own case is the exception. Last stated 4 years ago
14 Mar 2023
AM
Adam Mastroianni — holds since 2023-03-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The person receiving advice usually knows more about their own situation than the person giving it does. — tap to centre the map on it The person receiving advice usually knows more about their own situation than the person giving it does. Last stated a year ago
26 May 2025
NN
Neel Nanda — holds since 2025-05-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Debiasing has largely failed, and that is fine, because the biases identified are experience-built heuristics that only look like biases in hindsight. — tap to centre the map on it Debiasing has largely failed, and that is fine, because the biases identified are experience-built heuristics that only look like biases in hindsight. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A belief nobody else shares is a warning, and a belief everybody shares is also a warning; the right number of people who agree with you is small but not zero. — tap to centre the map on it A belief nobody else shares is a warning, and a belief everybody shares is also a warning; the right number of people who agree with you is small but not zero. Last stated 2 months ago
28 Jul 2026
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2026-07-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: People persist with the method they enjoy rather than the one that is supposed to be best, and that is what decides the outcome. — tap to centre the map on it People persist with the method they enjoy rather than the one that is supposed to be best, and that is what decides the outcome. Last stated 6 years ago
9 Sept 2020
LL
Luca Lampariello — holds since 2020-09-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Advice on how hard to work should only be taken from someone who has burned out before. — tap to centre the map on it Advice on how hard to work should only be taken from someone who has burned out before. Last stated 3 years ago
10 Jan 2024
CH
Cate Hall — holds since 2024-01-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: No single piece of business advice is enough on its own to make a business succeed. — tap to centre the map on it No single piece of business advice is enough on its own to make a business succeed. Last stated 4 months ago
2 Jun 2026
JJ
Justin Jackson — holds since 2026-06-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A cancellation-reason drop-down measures list order rather than reasons: randomise the options and every one of them gets picked equally. — tap to centre the map on it A cancellation-reason drop-down measures list order rather than reasons: randomise the options and every one of them gets picked equally. Last stated 8 months ago
25 Jan 2026
JC
Jason Cohen — holds since 2026-01-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A decision cannot be judged by its outcome, because good decisions fail through no fault of the decider and bad ones succeed by luck. — tap to centre the map on it A decision cannot be judged by its outcome, because good decisions fail through no fault of the decider and bad ones succeed by luck. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A habit has to be established before it can be improved, so standardizing a behavior comes before optimizing it. — tap to centre the map on it A habit has to be established before it can be improved, so standardizing a behavior comes before optimizing it. Last stated 9 months ago
1 Jan 2026
JC
James Clear — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: “Why now?” is the wrong question to make a founder answer — the honest answer can simply be that you started now. — tap to centre the map on it “Why now?” is the wrong question to make a founder answer — the honest answer can simply be that you started now. Last stated 2 months ago
28 Jul 2026
BS
Blake Scholl — holds since 2026-07-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company with ten customers has no data, and a growth team cannot function without data. — tap to centre the map on it A company with ten customers has no data, and a growth team cannot function without data. Last stated 2 years ago
19 Jan 2025
EV
Elena Verna — holds since 2025-01-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company's quality is bounded by its team's quality, and a team's quality is bounded by its founders. — tap to centre the map on it A company's quality is bounded by its team's quality, and a team's quality is bounded by its founders. Last stated 11 months ago
22 Oct 2025
TP
Tom Preston-Werner — holds since 2025-10-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company that grows enough eventually has no need for investors. — tap to centre the map on it A company that grows enough eventually has no need for investors. Last stated 3 weeks ago
1 Sept 2026
PG
Paul Graham — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit. — tap to centre the map on it A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit. Last stated 3 months ago
14 Jun 2026
MP
Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A founder should take half the valuation if it buys all of the control, because the right to be wrong in your own way is what founding was for. — tap to centre the map on it A founder should take half the valuation if it buys all of the control, because the right to be wrong in your own way is what founding was for. Last stated 4 months ago
2 Jun 2026
MP
Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-02 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Most advice people give is shaped by survivorship bias and cannot be reliably generalized to others.
Holds Read this korrent →
Advice is unreliable because it reflects hindsight, survivorship, and confirmation bias.
Holds
Even when advice is understood and believed, people discount it by assuming their own case is the exception.
Holds
The person receiving advice usually knows more about their own situation than the person giving it does.
Holds
Debiasing has largely failed, and that is fine, because the biases identified are experience-built heuristics that only look like biases in hindsight.
Holds
A belief nobody else shares is a warning, and a belief everybody shares is also a warning; the right number of people who agree with you is small but not zero.
Holds
People persist with the method they enjoy rather than the one that is supposed to be best, and that is what decides the outcome.
Holds
Advice on how hard to work should only be taken from someone who has burned out before.
Holds
No single piece of business advice is enough on its own to make a business succeed.
Holds
A cancellation-reason drop-down measures list order rather than reasons: randomise the options and every one of them gets picked equally.
Holds
A decision cannot be judged by its outcome, because good decisions fail through no fault of the decider and bad ones succeed by luck.
Holds
A habit has to be established before it can be improved, so standardizing a behavior comes before optimizing it.
Holds
“Why now?” is the wrong question to make a founder answer — the honest answer can simply be that you started now.
Holds
A company with ten customers has no data, and a growth team cannot function without data.
Holds
A company's quality is bounded by its team's quality, and a team's quality is bounded by its founders.
Holds
A company that grows enough eventually has no need for investors.
Holds
A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit.
Holds
A founder should take half the valuation if it buys all of the control, because the right to be wrong in your own way is what founding was for.
Holds