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← A giving approach that ranks options only by estimated expected value,…

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8 connected korrents · 5 moments on record from 18 Aug 2011 to 10 Jun 2026.

Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject A giving approach thatranks options only byestimated expected value… HK Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2011-08-18 The deeper anyone digs into a charity's cost-effectiveness estimate, the more unwarranted optimism they find, so the right prior on giving is a sceptical one. The deeper anyone digsinto a charity's… HK Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2011-08-18 Letting one calculation take over a giving decision is disturbing, and there is still a strong case for it if you want your ethics to be principled and about other people. Letting one calculationtake over a giving… HK Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2022-02-15 Ranking charities by their estimated expected value alone removes any reward for being transparent about how they actually work. Ranking charities bytheir estimated… HK Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2011-08-18 A world where altruists followed expected-value estimates would be one where nearly all of them helped distant strangers instead of the people around them, and that world would be worse. A world where altruistsfollowed expected-value… HK Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2011-08-18 Declining many-worlds because it extrapolates past what we can observe is methodologically respectable and still a failure of nerve. Declining many-worldsbecause it extrapolates… SC Sean Carroll — holds since 2024-04-22 An ungrounded estimate that promises an enormous payoff should be discarded rather than discounted, because the size of the claim is itself the reason to distrust it. An ungrounded estimatethat promises an… HK Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2011-08-18 A cancellation-reason drop-down measures list order rather than reasons: randomise the options and every one of them gets picked equally. A cancellation-reasondrop-down measures list… JC Jason Cohen — holds since 2026-01-25 Even the most advanced AI cannot be followed blindly in investing, where value added is zero-sum and what is widely known is therefore worth little. Even the most advancedAI cannot be followed… RD Ray Dalio — holds since 2026-06-10
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