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← A giving approach that ranks options only by estimated expected value,…
17 connected korrents · 11 moments from 14 Apr 2011 to 27 Sept 2026.
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market efficiency Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: A giving approach that ranks options only by estimated expected value, with no preference for better-grounded estimates, is flawed. A giving approach that ranks options only by estimated expected value, with no preference for better-grounded estimates, is flawed. Last stated 15 years ago
18 Aug 2011
HK
Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2011-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The deeper anyone digs into a charity's cost-effectiveness estimate, the more unwarranted optimism they find, so the right prior on giving is a sceptical one. — tap to centre the map on it The deeper anyone digs into a charity's cost-effectiveness estimate, the more unwarranted optimism they find, so the right prior on giving is a sceptical one. Last stated 15 years ago
18 Aug 2011
HK
Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2011-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Letting one calculation take over a giving decision is disturbing, and there is still a strong case for it if you want your ethics to be principled and about other people. — tap to centre the map on it Letting one calculation take over a giving decision is disturbing, and there is still a strong case for it if you want your ethics to be principled and about other people. Last stated 5 years ago
15 Feb 2022
HK
Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2022-02-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Ranking charities by their estimated expected value alone removes any reward for being transparent about how they actually work. — tap to centre the map on it Ranking charities by their estimated expected value alone removes any reward for being transparent about how they actually work. Last stated 15 years ago
18 Aug 2011
HK
Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2011-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A world where altruists followed expected-value estimates would be one where nearly all of them helped distant strangers instead of the people around them, and that world would be worse. — tap to centre the map on it A world where altruists followed expected-value estimates would be one where nearly all of them helped distant strangers instead of the people around them, and that world would be worse. Last stated 15 years ago
18 Aug 2011
HK
Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2011-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Declining many-worlds because it extrapolates past what we can observe is methodologically respectable and still a failure of nerve. — tap to centre the map on it Declining many-worlds because it extrapolates past what we can observe is methodologically respectable and still a failure of nerve. Last stated 2 years ago
22 Apr 2024
SC
Sean Carroll — holds since 2024-04-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An ungrounded estimate that promises an enormous payoff should be discarded rather than discounted, because the size of the claim is itself the reason to distrust it. — tap to centre the map on it An ungrounded estimate that promises an enormous payoff should be discarded rather than discounted, because the size of the claim is itself the reason to distrust it. Last stated 15 years ago
18 Aug 2011
HK
Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2011-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A cancellation-reason drop-down measures list order rather than reasons: randomise the options and every one of them gets picked equally. — tap to centre the map on it A cancellation-reason drop-down measures list order rather than reasons: randomise the options and every one of them gets picked equally. Last stated 9 months ago
25 Jan 2026
JC
Jason Cohen — holds since 2026-01-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Even the most advanced AI cannot be followed blindly in investing, where value added is zero-sum and what is widely known is therefore worth little. — tap to centre the map on it Even the most advanced AI cannot be followed blindly in investing, where value added is zero-sum and what is widely known is therefore worth little. Last stated 4 months ago
10 Jun 2026
RD
Ray Dalio — holds since 2026-06-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A liberal divorce law is wise — tap to centre the map on it A liberal divorce law is wise
ES
Elizabeth Cady Stanton — holds since c. 1898 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A partner's difficult trait becomes tolerable only if their good qualities outweigh it and you don't feel alone dealing with its effects. — tap to centre the map on it A partner's difficult trait becomes tolerable only if their good qualities outweigh it and you don't feel alone dealing with its effects. Last stated a month ago
20 Sept 2026
HN
Haley Nahman — holds since 2026-09-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A person with a spouse and children has given hostages to fortune, since they hinder great enterprises — tap to centre the map on it A person with a spouse and children has given hostages to fortune, since they hinder great enterprises
FB
Francis Bacon — holds since c. 1597–1625 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A busted computer is not a calamity of data loss or a long restore process in the modern world — tap to centre the map on it A busted computer is not a calamity of data loss or a long restore process in the modern world Last stated 11 months ago
24 Nov 2025
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2025-11-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A lot of jobs will probably be created because of AI. — tap to centre the map on it A lot of jobs will probably be created because of AI. Last stated 4 weeks ago
27 Sept 2026
MG
Molly Graham — holds since 2026-09-27 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A prisoner who lost faith in his own future was doomed — tap to centre the map on it A prisoner who lost faith in his own future was doomed
VF
Viktor Frankl — holds since c. 1946–1992 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A business can use stewardship of a community publication as a top-of-funnel customer acquisition strategy without needing the publication itself to generate revenue directly. — tap to centre the map on it A business can use stewardship of a community publication as a top-of-funnel customer acquisition strategy without needing the publication itself to generate revenue directly. Last stated a month ago
21 Sept 2026
CC
Chris Coyier — holds since 2026-09-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A CEO can master both peacetime and wartime leadership, but it is hard — tap to centre the map on it A CEO can master both peacetime and wartime leadership, but it is hard Last stated 16 years ago
14 Apr 2011
BH
Ben Horowitz — holds since 2011-04-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company can produce a good commercial without a large budget — tap to centre the map on it A company can produce a good commercial without a large budget Last stated 4 years ago
21 Mar 2023
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2023-03-21 — tap for who they are