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← An ungrounded estimate that promises an enormous payoff should be…

8 connected korrents · 7 moments on record from 18 Aug 2011 to 26 Aug 2026.

Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: An ungrounded estimate that promises an enormous payoff should be discarded rather than discounted, because the size of the claim is itself the reason to distrust it. An ungrounded estimate that promisesan enormous payoff should bediscarded rather than discounted,because the size of the claim isitself the reason to distrust it. Last stated 15 years ago 18 Aug 2011 HK Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2011-08-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: A giving approach that ranks options only by estimated expected value, with no preference for better-grounded estimates, is flawed. — tap to centre the map on it A giving approach that ranksoptions only by estimatedexpected value, with nopreference for better-grounded… Last stated 15 years ago 18 Aug 2011 HK Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2011-08-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: Declining many-worlds because it extrapolates past what we can observe is methodologically respectable and still a failure of nerve. — tap to centre the map on it Declining many-worlds becauseit extrapolates past what wecan observe ismethodologically respectable… Last stated 2 years ago 22 Apr 2024 SC Sean Carroll — holds since 2024-04-22 — tap for who they are Same subject: Health optimisation has overshot: minimising a measured risk is not worth it if the cost is not having lived. — tap to centre the map on it Health optimisation hasovershot: minimising ameasured risk is not worth itif the cost is not having… Last stated 2 weeks ago 26 Aug 2026 DH David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: The deeper anyone digs into a charity's cost-effectiveness estimate, the more unwarranted optimism they find, so the right prior on giving is a sceptical one. — tap to centre the map on it The deeper anyone digs into acharity's cost-effectivenessestimate, the more unwarrantedoptimism they find, so the… Last stated 15 years ago 18 Aug 2011 HK Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2011-08-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: Letting one calculation take over a giving decision is disturbing, and there is still a strong case for it if you want your ethics to be principled and about other people. — tap to centre the map on it Letting one calculation takeover a giving decision isdisturbing, and there is stilla strong case for it if you… Last stated 5 years ago 15 Feb 2022 HK Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2022-02-15 — tap for who they are Same subject: One good story outweighs a mountain of evidence, because most emotions cannot be argued with. — tap to centre the map on it One good story outweighs amountain of evidence, becausemost emotions cannot be arguedwith. Last stated 8 months ago 20 Jan 2026 DS Derek Sivers — holds since 2026-01-20 — tap for who they are Same subject: Selling a saving caps what you can charge; selling more of what the buyer already values raises that cap by an order of magnitude. — tap to centre the map on it Selling a saving caps what youcan charge; selling more ofwhat the buyer already valuesraises that cap by an order of… Last stated 7 months ago 25 Jan 2026 JC Jason Cohen — holds since 2026-01-25 — tap for who they are Same subject: The Bitter Lesson is misread as being about scale; it is about refusing to add human priors, because a clever specific fix always loses to a simple scalable one. — tap to centre the map on it The Bitter Lesson is misreadas being about scale; it isabout refusing to add humanpriors, because a clever… Last stated 2 years ago 3 Feb 2025 NL Nathan Lambert — holds since 2025-02-03 — tap for who they are
same subject or similar wordingbar: how recently it was last stated — full and dark this week, a faint sliver at five years

At the centre An ungrounded estimate that promises an enormous payoff should be discarded rather than discounted, because the size of the claim is itself the reason to distrust it. Last stated 18 Aug 2011 · 15 years ago Holds Holden Karnofsky Read this korrent →