Tap a claim on the ring to put it at the centre.
← An ungrounded estimate that promises an enormous payoff should be…
17 connected korrents · 15 moments from 3 Sept 1888 to 21 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under courage
courage
Everything filed under agency
agency
Everything filed under happiness
happiness
Everything filed under optimism
optimism
Everything filed under humility
humility
Everything filed under health and fitness
health and fitness
Everything filed under market efficiency
market efficiency Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: An ungrounded estimate that promises an enormous payoff should be discarded rather than discounted, because the size of the claim is itself the reason to distrust it. An ungrounded estimate that promises an enormous payoff should be discarded rather than discounted, because the size of the claim is itself the reason to distrust it. Last stated 15 years ago
18 Aug 2011
HK
Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2011-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A giving approach that ranks options only by estimated expected value, with no preference for better-grounded estimates, is flawed. — tap to centre the map on it A giving approach that ranks options only by estimated expected value, with no preference for better-grounded estimates, is flawed. Last stated 15 years ago
18 Aug 2011
HK
Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2011-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Declining many-worlds because it extrapolates past what we can observe is methodologically respectable and still a failure of nerve. — tap to centre the map on it Declining many-worlds because it extrapolates past what we can observe is methodologically respectable and still a failure of nerve. Last stated 3 years ago
22 Apr 2024
SC
Sean Carroll — holds since 2024-04-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: In complex decisions exposed to fat tails, decisions should not rest on statistically based claims — tap to centre the map on it In complex decisions exposed to fat tails, decisions should not rest on statistically based claims Last stated 18 years ago
14 Sept 2008
NT
Nassim Nicholas Taleb — holds since 2008-09-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Far more probability estimates err on the over-optimistic side than the under-optimistic side. — tap to centre the map on it Far more probability estimates err on the over-optimistic side than the under-optimistic side. Last stated 8 years ago
14 May 2018
SP
Shane Parrish — holds since 2018-05-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Health optimisation has overshot: minimising a measured risk is not worth it if the cost is not having lived. — tap to centre the map on it Health optimisation has overshot: minimising a measured risk is not worth it if the cost is not having lived. Last stated 2 months ago
26 Aug 2026
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The deeper anyone digs into a charity's cost-effectiveness estimate, the more unwarranted optimism they find, so the right prior on giving is a sceptical one. — tap to centre the map on it The deeper anyone digs into a charity's cost-effectiveness estimate, the more unwarranted optimism they find, so the right prior on giving is a sceptical one. Last stated 15 years ago
18 Aug 2011
HK
Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2011-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Selling an undifferentiated product while expecting returns above the cost of capital is unrealistic. — tap to centre the map on it Selling an undifferentiated product while expecting returns above the cost of capital is unrealistic. Last stated 2 years ago
1 Oct 2024
TG
Tren Griffin — holds since 2024-10-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Letting one calculation take over a giving decision is disturbing, and there is still a strong case for it if you want your ethics to be principled and about other people. — tap to centre the map on it Letting one calculation take over a giving decision is disturbing, and there is still a strong case for it if you want your ethics to be principled and about other people. Last stated 5 years ago
15 Feb 2022
HK
Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2022-02-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A person should not play the coward to their own deeds by repudiating them once done; pangs of conscience are indecent. — tap to centre the map on it A person should not play the coward to their own deeds by repudiating them once done; pangs of conscience are indecent. Last stated 138 years ago
3 Sept 1888
FN
Friedrich Nietzsche — holds since 1888-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A society that intensely values intelligence is unprecedented in human history; the Bible, Homer and other ancient texts value strength, courage and beauty instead. — tap to centre the map on it A society that intensely values intelligence is unprecedented in human history; the Bible, Homer and other ancient texts value strength, courage and beauty instead. Last stated 6 months ago
8 May 2026
DR
David Reich — holds since 2026-05-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: All great literature is about what a bummer it is to be a human being — tap to centre the map on it All great literature is about what a bummer it is to be a human being Last stated 22 years ago
10 May 2004
KV
Kurt Vonnegut — holds since 2004-05-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A business can use stewardship of a community publication as a top-of-funnel customer acquisition strategy without needing the publication itself to generate revenue directly. — tap to centre the map on it A business can use stewardship of a community publication as a top-of-funnel customer acquisition strategy without needing the publication itself to generate revenue directly. Last stated a month ago
21 Sept 2026
CC
Chris Coyier — holds since 2026-09-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A CEO can master both peacetime and wartime leadership, but it is hard — tap to centre the map on it A CEO can master both peacetime and wartime leadership, but it is hard Last stated 16 years ago
14 Apr 2011
BH
Ben Horowitz — holds since 2011-04-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company can produce a good commercial without a large budget — tap to centre the map on it A company can produce a good commercial without a large budget Last stated 4 years ago
21 Mar 2023
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2023-03-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A free person thinks about death least of all; their wisdom is a meditation on life, not death — tap to centre the map on it A free person thinks about death least of all; their wisdom is a meditation on life, not death
BS
Baruch Spinoza — holds since c. 1661–1675 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A good life is forged from the very things that make it hard, since joy and pain in relationships come together. — tap to centre the map on it A good life is forged from the very things that make it hard, since joy and pain in relationships come together. Last stated 4 years ago
13 Jan 2023
RW
Robert Waldinger — holds since 2023-01-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A good life rests on things that demand skill and effort from you, not on goods that arrive requiring none. — tap to centre the map on it A good life rests on things that demand skill and effort from you, not on goods that arrive requiring none. Last stated 2 years ago
16 May 2024
LS
L. M. Sacasas — holds since 2024-05-16 — tap for who they are
At the centre
An ungrounded estimate that promises an enormous payoff should be discarded rather than discounted, because the size of the claim is itself the reason to distrust it.
Holds Read this korrent →
A giving approach that ranks options only by estimated expected value, with no preference for better-grounded estimates, is flawed.
Holds
Declining many-worlds because it extrapolates past what we can observe is methodologically respectable and still a failure of nerve.
Holds
In complex decisions exposed to fat tails, decisions should not rest on statistically based claims
Holds
Far more probability estimates err on the over-optimistic side than the under-optimistic side.
Holds
Health optimisation has overshot: minimising a measured risk is not worth it if the cost is not having lived.
Holds
The deeper anyone digs into a charity's cost-effectiveness estimate, the more unwarranted optimism they find, so the right prior on giving is a sceptical one.
Holds
Selling an undifferentiated product while expecting returns above the cost of capital is unrealistic.
Holds
Letting one calculation take over a giving decision is disturbing, and there is still a strong case for it if you want your ethics to be principled and about other people.
Holds
A person should not play the coward to their own deeds by repudiating them once done; pangs of conscience are indecent.
Holds
A society that intensely values intelligence is unprecedented in human history; the Bible, Homer and other ancient texts value strength, courage and beauty instead.
Holds
All great literature is about what a bummer it is to be a human being
Holds
A business can use stewardship of a community publication as a top-of-funnel customer acquisition strategy without needing the publication itself to generate revenue directly.
Holds
A CEO can master both peacetime and wartime leadership, but it is hard
Holds
A company can produce a good commercial without a large budget
Holds
A free person thinks about death least of all; their wisdom is a meditation on life, not death
Last stated c. 1661–1675
Holds
A good life is forged from the very things that make it hard, since joy and pain in relationships come together.
Holds
A good life rests on things that demand skill and effort from you, not on goods that arrive requiring none.
Holds