Our readingWhat is a korrent?
An ungrounded estimate that promises an enormous payoff should be discarded rather than discounted, because the size of the claim is itself the reason to distrust it.
Drawn from what Holden Karnofsky said
What Holden Karnofsky actually said
- Holden Karnofsky Co-founder of GiveWell
An ungrounded estimate making an extravagant claim ought to be more or less discarded in the face of the “prior distribution” of life experience.
Where this was said
↗Why we can’t take expected value estimates literally (even when they’re unbiased)blog.givewell.org
All 8 korrents from this piecethis one is 5th
Added to korrents 7 Sept 2026 · How quotes work · Something wrong? Tell us
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