An ungrounded estimate that promises an enormous payoff should be discarded rather than discounted, because the size of the claim is itself the reason to distrust it.

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Our reading — they may agree, disagree or merely touch the same thing. Closest first: a shared subject counts for most, then how near the wording is.

• A giving approach that ranks options only by estimated expected value, with no preference for better-grounded estimates, is flawed. HKHolden Karnofsky18 Aug 2011similar wording
• Declining many-worlds because it extrapolates past what we can observe is methodologically respectable and still a failure of nerve. SCSean Carroll22 Apr 2024similar wording
• Health optimisation has overshot: minimising a measured risk is not worth it if the cost is not having lived. DHDavid Heinemeier Hansson26 Aug 2026similar wording
• The deeper anyone digs into a charity's cost-effectiveness estimate, the more unwarranted optimism they find, so the right prior on giving is a sceptical one. HKHolden Karnofsky18 Aug 2011similar wording
• Letting one calculation take over a giving decision is disturbing, and there is still a strong case for it if you want your ethics to be principled and about other people. HKHolden Karnofsky15 Feb 2022similar wording

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