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← A frontier AI model's competitive lead decays within months to a year as others catch up.

17 connected korrents · 16 moments from 18 Mar 2024 to 26 Oct 2026.

Everything filed under LLMs LLMs Everything filed under scaling laws scaling laws Everything filed under Anthropic Anthropic Everything filed under OpenAI OpenAI Everything filed under innovation innovation Everything filed under AI alignment AI alignment Everything filed under recursive self-improvement recursive self-improvement Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: A frontier AI model's competitive lead decays within months to a year as others catch up. A frontier AI model's competitive leaddecays within months to a year as otherscatch up. Last stated 2 months ago 26 Aug 2026 RK Rohit Krishnan — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: A competitor six months or a year behind the frontier can stay close, because the cost of AI falls more than tenfold every year. — tap to centre the map on it A competitor six months or a yearbehind the frontier can stay close,because the cost of AI falls morethan tenfold every year. Last stated 10 months ago 8 Jan 2026 JH Jensen Huang — holds since 2026-01-08 — tap for who they are Same subject: The gap between frontier AI capabilities and publicly available ones is at most a few months, not years. — tap to centre the map on it The gap between frontier AIcapabilities and publicly availableones is at most a few months, notyears. Last stated 6 months ago 21 May 2026 SK Sayash Kapoor — holds since 2026-05-21 — tap for who they are Same subject: Local AI models will eventually catch up to frontier models once frontier progress hits diminishing returns. — tap to centre the map on it Local AI models will eventuallycatch up to frontier models oncefrontier progress hits diminishingreturns. Last stated 9 months ago 8 Feb 2026 DC David Crawshaw — holds since 2026-02-08 — tap for who they are Same subject: Frontier AI model capabilities stay tightly clustered together rather than any single model holding a decisive, unassailable lead. — tap to centre the map on it Frontier AI model capabilities staytightly clustered together ratherthan any single model holding adecisive, unassailable lead. Last stated 7 months ago 26 Mar 2026 SK Sriram Krishnan — holds since 2026-03-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: The current lead of American models over Chinese models is approximately 6.5 months when accounting for distillation — tap to centre the map on it The current lead of American modelsover Chinese models is approximately6.5 months when accounting fordistillation Last stated 2 weeks ago 22 Oct 2026 ZM Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-10-22 — tap for who they are Same subject: There is far less trade-off than people assume between a safer AI race and widely shared gains: a big lead can be held by a widely owned public company. — tap to centre the map on it There is far less trade-off thanpeople assume between a safer AIrace and widely shared gains: a biglead can be held by a widely ownedpublic company. Last stated 5 months ago 4 Jun 2026 PT Phil Trammell — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are Same subject: Open-source and closed frontier AI models will both find lasting places in the market rather than one displacing the other. — tap to centre the map on it Open-source and closed frontier AImodels will both find lasting placesin the market rather than onedisplacing the other. Last stated a month ago 22 Sept 2026 BR Barry Ritholtz — holds since 2026-09-22 — tap for who they are Same subject: Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. — tap to centre the map on it Once AI can do AI research, a singleyear should deliver four or fiveyears worth of AI progress. Last stated 3 months ago 11 Aug 2026 RG Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are Same subject: A PHP vulnerability found with GPT-5.6 Sol will cause havoc this week. — tap to centre the map on it A PHP vulnerability found withGPT-5.6 Sol will cause havoc thisweek. Last stated 2 weeks ago 21 Oct 2026 PS Peter Steinberger — holds since 2026-10-21 — tap for who they are Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as anonprofit and bolt a for-profit armon later, whatever OpenAI's ownhistory suggests. Last stated 3 years ago 18 Mar 2024 SA Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. — tap to centre the map on it Advertising was a necessary phasefor the internet but a momentaryindustry, and an AI people pay foris better because they know theanswers are not influenced byadvertisers. Last stated 3 years ago 18 Mar 2024 SA Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: "I don't know" becomes a kind of superpower when you can work with Claude Code to figure things out. — tap to centre the map on it "I don't know" becomes a kind ofsuperpower when you can work withClaude Code to figure things out. Last stated 8 months ago 19 Mar 2026 KP Kris Puckett — holds since 2026-03-19 — tap for who they are Same subject: A benchmark that ranks Claude Code last while it stays first in use is measuring the wrong thing, and has been for a year. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark that ranks Claude Codelast while it stays first in use ismeasuring the wrong thing, and hasbeen for a year. Last stated 2 months ago 3 Sept 2026 DR Dax Raad — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: A skill is a set of repeatable, specific instructions that augments what Claude Code can do. — tap to centre the map on it A skill is a set of repeatable,specific instructions that augmentswhat Claude Code can do. Last stated 8 months ago 19 Mar 2026 KP Kris Puckett — holds since 2026-03-19 — tap for who they are Same subject: "Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next. — tap to centre the map on it "Scaling" was powerful because itwas one word: naming a researchdirection is what tells a wholefield what to do next. Last stated 11 months ago 25 Nov 2025 IS Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are Same subject: A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark result should bereported under a stated budget, oras a curve against test-time compute— never as a single number. Last stated 4 months ago 26 Jun 2026 NB Noam Brown — holds since 2026-06-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: A CPU and memory crunch is coming. — tap to centre the map on it A CPU and memory crunch is coming. Last stated a week ago 26 Oct 2026 DM Dillon Mulroy — holds since 2026-10-26 — tap for who they are
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At the centre A frontier AI model's competitive lead decays within months to a year as others catch up. Last stated 26 Aug 2026 · 2 months ago Holds Rohit Krishnan Read this korrent →