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← The gap between frontier AI capabilities and publicly available ones is at most a few months, not years.

17 connected korrents · 16 moments from 18 Mar 2024 to 21 Oct 2026.

Everything filed under LLMs LLMs Everything filed under scaling laws scaling laws Everything filed under AI alignment AI alignment Everything filed under OpenAI OpenAI Everything filed under AGI AGI Everything filed under innovation innovation Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: The gap between frontier AI capabilities and publicly available ones is at most a few months, not years. The gap between frontier AI capabilitiesand publicly available ones is at most afew months, not years. Last stated 5 months ago 21 May 2026 SK Sayash Kapoor — holds since 2026-05-21 — tap for who they are Same subject: There is a large and growing gap between open-weight AI models and frontier AI models. — tap to centre the map on it There is a large and growing gapbetween open-weight AI models andfrontier AI models. Last stated 7 months ago 29 Mar 2026 CW Chris Wellons — holds since 2026-03-29 — tap for who they are Same subject: The performance gap between open and closed AI models has narrowed to roughly 4-6 months. — tap to centre the map on it The performance gap between open andclosed AI models has narrowed toroughly 4-6 months. Last stated 2 months ago 11 Sept 2026 NL Nathan Lambert — holds since 2026-09-11 — tap for who they are Same subject: The gap between local and cloud AI models is significant, and even high-end hardware cannot match frontier cloud capabilities. — tap to centre the map on it The gap between local and cloud AImodels is significant, and evenhigh-end hardware cannot matchfrontier cloud capabilities. Last stated 8 months ago 8 Mar 2026 RC Rui Carmo — holds since 2026-03-08 — tap for who they are Same subject: There is no private evidence behind frontier-lab confidence in fast AI progress; the evidence is public and outsiders have simply not absorbed it. — tap to centre the map on it There is no private evidence behindfrontier-lab confidence in fast AIprogress; the evidence is public andoutsiders have simply not absorbedit. Last stated 2 years ago 20 Dec 2024 MB Miles Brundage — holds since 2024-12-20 — tap for who they are Same subject: A competitor six months or a year behind the frontier can stay close, because the cost of AI falls more than tenfold every year. — tap to centre the map on it A competitor six months or a yearbehind the frontier can stay close,because the cost of AI falls morethan tenfold every year. Last stated 10 months ago 8 Jan 2026 JH Jensen Huang — holds since 2026-01-08 — tap for who they are Same subject: Open-source and closed frontier AI models will both find lasting places in the market rather than one displacing the other. — tap to centre the map on it Open-source and closed frontier AImodels will both find lasting placesin the market rather than onedisplacing the other. Last stated a month ago 22 Sept 2026 BR Barry Ritholtz — holds since 2026-09-22 — tap for who they are Same subject: The capability gap between smaller, locally-run AI models and larger models will narrow over time as compute becomes more accessible. — tap to centre the map on it The capability gap between smaller,locally-run AI models and largermodels will narrow over time ascompute becomes more accessible. Last stated 6 months ago 27 Apr 2026 JS Jon Seager — holds since 2026-04-27 — tap for who they are Same subject: A frontier AI model's competitive lead decays within months to a year as others catch up. — tap to centre the map on it A frontier AI model's competitivelead decays within months to a yearas others catch up. Last stated 2 months ago 26 Aug 2026 RK Rohit Krishnan — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: A PHP vulnerability found with GPT-5.6 Sol will cause havoc this week. — tap to centre the map on it A PHP vulnerability found withGPT-5.6 Sol will cause havoc thisweek. Last stated a week ago 21 Oct 2026 PS Peter Steinberger — holds since 2026-10-21 — tap for who they are Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as anonprofit and bolt a for-profit armon later, whatever OpenAI's ownhistory suggests. Last stated 3 years ago 18 Mar 2024 SA Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. — tap to centre the map on it Advertising was a necessary phasefor the internet but a momentaryindustry, and an AI people pay foris better because they know theanswers are not influenced byadvertisers. Last stated 3 years ago 18 Mar 2024 SA Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: "Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next. — tap to centre the map on it "Scaling" was powerful because itwas one word: naming a researchdirection is what tells a wholefield what to do next. Last stated 11 months ago 25 Nov 2025 IS Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are Same subject: A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark result should bereported under a stated budget, oras a curve against test-time compute— never as a single number. Last stated 4 months ago 26 Jun 2026 NB Noam Brown — holds since 2026-06-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: A lab should spend most of its compute on research rather than on building the next model, because research is where the tenfold yearly efficiency gains come from. — tap to centre the map on it A lab should spend most of itscompute on research rather than onbuilding the next model, becauseresearch is where the tenfold yearlyefficiency gains come from. Last stated 8 months ago 13 Mar 2026 DP Dylan Patel — holds since 2026-03-13 — tap for who they are Same subject: A company that uses an algorithm to nudge customers into behavior that isn't good for them is doing something bad. — tap to centre the map on it A company that uses an algorithm tonudge customers into behavior thatisn't good for them is doingsomething bad. Last stated a year ago 7 Oct 2025 MM Mr. Money Mustache — holds since 2025-10-07 — tap for who they are Same subject: A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail. — tap to centre the map on it A control evaluation that reportsunder one per cent risk should beread as several per cent, becausethe evaluation can itself fail. Last stated 2 years ago 7 May 2024 BS Buck Shlegeris — holds since 2024-05-07 — tap for who they are Same subject: A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score. — tap to centre the map on it A feedback loop that reinforces abehavior pulls it toward whateverimproves the loop's own score. Last stated 2 months ago 26 Aug 2026 HK Henrik Karlsson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
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At the centre The gap between frontier AI capabilities and publicly available ones is at most a few months, not years. Last stated 21 May 2026 · 5 months ago Holds Sayash Kapoor Read this korrent →