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← There is no private evidence behind frontier-lab confidence in fast AI…
17 connected korrents · 18 moments from 3 Oct 2012 to 14 Oct 2026.
Everything filed under AGI
AGI
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humility
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scaling laws Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: There is no private evidence behind frontier-lab confidence in fast AI progress; the evidence is public and outsiders have simply not absorbed it. There is no private evidence behind frontier-lab confidence in fast AI progress; the evidence is public and outsiders have simply not absorbed it. Last stated 2 years ago
20 Dec 2024
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2024-12-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Anyone outside a frontier lab will find their judgment about AI drifting, because the systems are opaque and what is coming is not visible from outside. — tap to centre the map on it Anyone outside a frontier lab will find their judgment about AI drifting, because the systems are opaque and what is coming is not visible from outside. Last stated 7 months ago
20 Mar 2026
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2026-03-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Nobody inside a frontier lab can speak freely about AI, because there are things the organisation will not let them say and things it wants them to say. — tap to centre the map on it Nobody inside a frontier lab can speak freely about AI, because there are things the organisation will not let them say and things it wants them to say. Last stated 7 months ago
20 Mar 2026
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2026-03-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Frontier AI systems cannot be presumed safe unless proven unsafe; developers must bear the burden of proof that risks stay within acceptable limits. — tap to centre the map on it Frontier AI systems cannot be presumed safe unless proven unsafe; developers must bear the burden of proof that risks stay within acceptable limits. Last stated 3 years ago
26 Oct 2023
YB
Yoshua Bengio — holds since 2023-10-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The safety culture at frontier AI labs is broken. — tap to centre the map on it The safety culture at frontier AI labs is broken. Last stated a week ago
14 Oct 2026
ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-10-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Open-source and closed frontier AI models will both find lasting places in the market rather than one displacing the other. — tap to centre the map on it Open-source and closed frontier AI models will both find lasting places in the market rather than one displacing the other. Last stated 4 weeks ago
22 Sept 2026
BR
Barry Ritholtz — holds since 2026-09-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching. — tap to centre the map on it Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching. Last stated 2 months ago
20 Aug 2026
AD
Aswath Damodaran — holds since 2026-08-20 — tap for who they are
HM
Howard Marks — holds since 2025-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The likeliest bad path is not a coup but sloppiness: AI does everything verifiable well, research races ahead, and the subtle work of keeping AI safe is what gets done badly. — tap to centre the map on it The likeliest bad path is not a coup but sloppiness: AI does everything verifiable well, research races ahead, and the subtle work of keeping AI safe is what gets done badly. Last stated 2 months ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The least verifiable part of AI research is the judgement call about what goes into the one big training run. — tap to centre the map on it The least verifiable part of AI research is the judgement call about what goes into the one big training run. Last stated 2 months ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. — tap to centre the map on it A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. Last stated 5 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. — tap to centre the map on it A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. Last stated a year ago
7 Jun 2025
GM
Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-06-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A model that could learn effectively from raw bitstrings or bytestrings would be extremely powerful, able to learn from any data modality — tap to centre the map on it A model that could learn effectively from raw bitstrings or bytestrings would be extremely powerful, able to learn from any data modality Last stated 3 years ago
10 Oct 2023
CH
Chip Huyen — holds since 2023-10-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A true artificial general intelligence cannot exist without being recognized as a moral subject. — tap to centre the map on it A true artificial general intelligence cannot exist without being recognized as a moral subject. Last stated a year ago
10 Jun 2025
SH
Samuel Hammond — holds since 2025-06-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AGI research made no progress in its first six decades. — tap to centre the map on it AGI research made no progress in its first six decades. Last stated 14 years ago
3 Oct 2012
DD
David Deutsch — holds since 2012-10-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An AI that cannot work out new physics has not equalled human intelligence, let alone surpassed it, because humans have worked out new physics. — tap to centre the map on it An AI that cannot work out new physics has not equalled human intelligence, let alone surpassed it, because humans have worked out new physics. Last stated 3 years ago
9 Nov 2023
EM
Elon Musk — holds since 2023-11-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. — tap to centre the map on it AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. Last stated 2 years ago
2 Feb 2025
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Alexander — holds since 2022-09-12 — tap for who they are
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2025-02-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI progress is jagged: models are becoming superhuman at math and software engineering while remaining far weaker at intuition, creativity, and other forms of human reasoning. — tap to centre the map on it AI progress is jagged: models are becoming superhuman at math and software engineering while remaining far weaker at intuition, creativity, and other forms of human reasoning. Last stated a month ago
10 Sept 2026
NL
Nathan Lambert — holds since 2026-09-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Anyone who thinks large language models are a direct route to transformative AGI is kidding themselves. — tap to centre the map on it Anyone who thinks large language models are a direct route to transformative AGI is kidding themselves. Last stated a year ago
7 Jun 2025
GM
Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-06-07 — tap for who they are
At the centre
There is no private evidence behind frontier-lab confidence in fast AI progress; the evidence is public and outsiders have simply not absorbed it.
Holds Read this korrent →
Anyone outside a frontier lab will find their judgment about AI drifting, because the systems are opaque and what is coming is not visible from outside.
Holds
Nobody inside a frontier lab can speak freely about AI, because there are things the organisation will not let them say and things it wants them to say.
Holds
Frontier AI systems cannot be presumed safe unless proven unsafe; developers must bear the burden of proof that risks stay within acceptable limits.
Holds
The safety culture at frontier AI labs is broken.
Holds
Open-source and closed frontier AI models will both find lasting places in the market rather than one displacing the other.
Holds
Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching.
Holds
The likeliest bad path is not a coup but sloppiness: AI does everything verifiable well, research races ahead, and the subtle work of keeping AI safe is what gets done badly.
Holds
The least verifiable part of AI research is the judgement call about what goes into the one big training run.
Holds
A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated.
Holds
A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted.
Holds
A model that could learn effectively from raw bitstrings or bytestrings would be extremely powerful, able to learn from any data modality
Holds
A true artificial general intelligence cannot exist without being recognized as a moral subject.
Holds
AGI research made no progress in its first six decades.
Holds
An AI that cannot work out new physics has not equalled human intelligence, let alone surpassed it, because humans have worked out new physics.
Holds
AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard.
Holds
AI progress is jagged: models are becoming superhuman at math and software engineering while remaining far weaker at intuition, creativity, and other forms of human reasoning.
Holds
Anyone who thinks large language models are a direct route to transformative AGI is kidding themselves.
Holds