@dylan-patel · 50 positions · 1 change of mind · On ppll ↗
Founder and chief executive of SemiAnalysis, the research firm that tracks the semiconductor and AI data-centre supply chain.
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Each column is a stretch of time in which the same views came up; a new column starts when one appears or goes quiet. Quiet means nothing on it in our sources for that stretch, which is not the same as a change of mind; Dropped means they said they no longer hold it; tap the card for which claim and when. Revised means the view carries on but one of its claims was dropped. Each row is one view, in the same place all the way along. The number is how many claims in that stretch; we hold 22 in 2025, 28 in 2026.
What caps AI is the chip supply chain, down to lithography tools, not power or data centres
Their wordsSo, space data centers effectively are not li limited by, you know, hey, we have this energy advantage. It's actually just limited by the same contended resource. We can only make 200 gawatts of chips a year by the end of the decade.
Their wordsUh, Micron bought a fab from a company in Taiwan that makes lagging edge chips, right? Um, Heinix and Samsung are doing, you know, some pretty crazy things to try and expand capacity at their existing fabs, uh, that also have like very large knock-on effects in the economy. And so, hey, why can't we build more capacity is like there's nowhere to put the tools, right?
Their wordsUm in general the semiconductor supply chain has not right it's lived through the booms and bust and uh we can talk a bit more about it but basically no one you know some players as of very recently have like woken up but in general no one really sees demand for 200 gawatts a year of AI chips or you know trillions of dollars of spend a year in the semiconductor supply chain.
Their wordsUm, and then you stack on 70 this year, 80 next year, growing to 100 by 2030. You're at like 700 EV tools by the end of the decade. Um, 700 EV tools, three and a half tools per gigawatt. um assuming it's all allocated to AI which it's not but three and a half tools per gigawatt gets you to 200 gigawatts worth of AI chips for the data centers to deploy
Their wordsoh 50 gigawatts of economic you know sort of capex in in the data center and what gets built on top of that in terms of tokens is even larger right it might be hundred billion dollars worth of AI value into the supply chain is held up by this $1.2 two billion dollars worth of tooling that simply just cannot expand its supply chain quickly.
Their wordsSo to scale compute further right there's some different bottlenecks this year next year uh but ultimately by 2829 the bottleneck falls to the lowest rung on the supply chain which is ASML right ASML makes the world's most complicated machine i.e. an EUV tool.
Their wordsYeah, I think the biggest bottleneck is compute and for that the longest lead time supply chains are not power or data centers. They're actually the semiconductor supply chain themselves, right? It switches back from being power and data center uh as a major bottleneck to chips.
Their wordsInteresting thing is certain regions of the US transmitting power cost more than actually generating it because the grid is so slow to build. And the demand for power, and the ability to build power, and re-ramping on a natural gas plant or even a coal plant is easy enough to do, but transmitting the power's really hard.
Their wordsAnd so I think people are figuring out how to build these things and permitting like I I just like ultimately like permitting and red tape in middle of nowhere Texas or middle of nowhere Wyoming or middle of nowhere like New Mexico is probably a hell of a lot easier than sending stuff into space
Their wordsum humanoid robots maybe start to or robotics at least start to but the main factor is going to be for reducing the number of people is modularizing things and making them in factories in Asia
Their wordsThen all of a sudden, you've unlocked 20% of the US grid for data centers because most of the times that capacity is sitting idle and it's really only there for that peak, right? Which is a day or two, right?
Their wordsOne is ByteDance, arguably is the largest smuggler of GPUs for China. China's not supposed to have GPUs. ByteDance has over 500,000 GPUs. Why? Because they're all rented from companies around the world.
Their wordsFLOP is the vector that the government has cared about historically, but the other two vectors are arguably just as important. And especially when we come to this new paradigm, which the world is only just learning about over the last six months: reasoning.
Their wordsSo there is an angle of, the US' actions, from the angle of the expert controls, have been so inflammatory at slowing down China's progress on the leading edge that they've turned around and have accelerated their progress elsewhere because they know that this is so important.
Their wordsChina, if they wanted to build the largest data center in the world, if they had access to the chips, could. So it's just a question of when, not if.
Their wordsif you believe we're in this sort of stage of economic growth and change that we've been in for the last 20 years, the export controls are absolutely guaranteeing that China will win long-term.
Their wordsAnd so going back, can the US build it here? Yes, but it's going to take a ton of money. I truly think to revolutionize and completely in-source semiconductors would take a decade and a trillion dollars.
Their wordsUm, just shipping out all the engineers and blowing up the fabs means China has a stronger semiconductor supply chain than the rest of the world, right?
Their wordsbut I think he can build the uh clean room. It'll take a year or two. Maybe initially it won't be super fast, but then over time you'll get faster and faster at it. But then the really complex part is actually developing the process technology and building wafers. And I don't think he can develop that uh quickly. I think that has a lot of built-up knowledge.
Their wordsI think they'll have working tools. I don't think that they'll be able to manufacture a bunch yet, right? You know, there's they're sort of having it work and then there's production hell, right?
Their wordsBut the funniest thing I think that comes out of this is Jevons paradox is true. AWS pricing for H100s has gone up over the last couple of weeks, since a little bit after Christmas, since V3 was launched, AWS H100 pricing has gone up.
Their wordsThe important thing about, hey, is cost a limiting factor here? My view is that we'll have really awesome intelligence, like AGI, before we have it permeate throughout the economy.
Their wordsTo some extent, training a model does effectively nothing. They have a model. The thing that Dario is sort of speaking to is the implementation of that model, once trained to then create huge economic growth, huge increases in military capabilities, huge increases in productivity of people, betterment of lives.
Dylan PatelFounder and chief executive of SemiAnalysisif improvement stopped you know here the value of an H100 is now predicated on the value that GPD 5.4 four can get out of it instead of the value that GP4 can get out of it and the margins and all that stuff that these labs are doing and they're in a competitive environment so their margins can't go to infinity. Um so you sort of have this like dynamic that is quite interesting in that an H100 is worth more today than it was 3 years ago.↗Dylan Patel — The single biggest bottleneck to scaling AI computeyoutube.com · 13 Mar 2026 · 0:15:28 into the videoAll korrents from this video
Their wordsif improvement stopped you know here the value of an H100 is now predicated on the value that GPD 5.4 four can get out of it instead of the value that GP4 can get out of it and the margins and all that stuff that these labs are doing and they're in a competitive environment so their margins can't go to infinity. Um so you sort of have this like dynamic that is quite interesting in that an H100 is worth more today than it was 3 years ago.
Their wordsOpenAI has a fantastic margin. When they're doing inference, their gross margins are north of 75%. So that's a four to five X factor right there of the cost difference, is that OpenAI is just making crazy amounts of money because they're the only one with the capability.
Their wordsUm I think at least this year we're going to see margins for the model vendors go up a lot, right? Because they're so capacity constrained, they have to demand destroy demand, right? there is there's no way they can continue anthropic can continue at the current pace without destroying demand.
Their wordsA companies that have locked up, you know, and and don't have commitment issues, you know, have these 5-year contracts for compute, they've kind of locked in a humongous margin advantage because they've locked in compute for 5 years at a price of what it transacted at 5 years ago or three years ago or two years ago, whatever it is.
Their wordsit won't be one person rule them all, but it will be, the thing I worry about is it'll be few people, hundreds, thousands, tens of thousands, maybe millions of people rule whoever's left and the economy around it.
Their wordsThere's this very good quote from Sam Altman who... He can be a hyperbeast sometimes, but one of the things he said, and I think I agree, is that superhuman persuasion will happen before superhuman intelligence, right? And if that's the case, then these things before we get this AGI ASI stuff, we can embed superhuman persuasion towards our ideal or whatever the ideal of the model maker is, right?
Their wordsIt's an objective fact that the world has been the most peaceful it's ever been when there are global hegemons, or regional hegemons in historical context. The Mediterranean was the most peaceful ever when the Romans were there.