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← People and their mental models

Jason Cohen's mental models

2 claims Jason Cohen made fit 2 mental models. Most often: Probabilistic thinking, S-curves and diminishing returns. Everything they said here.

Models they name

Their own words name the idea.

Probabilistic thinking

Think in odds, not certainties, and bet heavily only when the odds are clearly yours.

Others who think with this model

Shane ParrishCharlie MungerDaniel KahnemanMorgan HouselIsaiah TaylorMarc Andreessenand 3 more

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Expected value cannot decide the once-only decisions, because you know neither the probabilities nor the shape of their curves.

  1. Jason Cohen Founder of WP Engine and Smart Bear But the truth is we don't know what the probability is. We don't know what the probability curves look like. We actually can't use expected value. The surprising advice from a founder who built 2 unicorns | Jason Cohen (WP Engine)youtube.com · 25 Jan 2026 · 1:28:43 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    Their wordsBut the truth is we don't know what the probability is. We don't know what the probability curves look like. We actually can't use expected value.

    Where this was said

    Watch from 1:28:43 plays here

    ↗The surprising advice from a founder who built 2 unicorns | Jason Cohen (WP Engine)youtube.com

    25 Jan 2026 · video · 1h 46m · spoken · machine transcript

S-curves and diminishing returns

Most growth slows as it matures; the question is whether the curve is flattening or something new is restocking it.

Others who think with this model

Michael NielsenDavid Heinemeier HanssonFrançois CholletGary MarcusIlya SutskeverJosé Luis Ricónand 1 more

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Marketing channels do not settle onto a plateau; after the S-curve they sag, which is why the shape is an elephant and not an S.

  1. Jason Cohen Founder of WP Engine and Smart Bear But that's not what happens. What happens is it starts with an S-curve and then it starts sagging. Its butt starts sagging down. So, I wrote an article about this called the elephant curve, which is what I named it, right? The surprising advice from a founder who built 2 unicorns | Jason Cohen (WP Engine)youtube.com · 25 Jan 2026 · 1:08:19 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    Their wordsBut that's not what happens. What happens is it starts with an S-curve and then it starts sagging. Its butt starts sagging down. So, I wrote an article about this called the elephant curve, which is what I named it, right?

    Where this was said

    Watch from 1:08:19 plays here

    ↗The surprising advice from a founder who built 2 unicorns | Jason Cohen (WP Engine)youtube.com

    25 Jan 2026 · video · 1h 46m · spoken · machine transcript