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← That the confident predictions of AI ending the world have not come…
17 connected korrents · 15 moments from 5 Nov 2019 to 21 Oct 2026.
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self-sovereign AI
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measuring intelligence
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AGI
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AI agents
Everything filed under mathematics
mathematics
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Anthropic
Everything filed under humility
humility Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: That the confident predictions of AI ending the world have not come true should update people's predictions about the future. That the confident predictions of AI ending the world have not come true should update people's predictions about the future. Last stated 2 months ago
23 Aug 2026
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2026-08-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Decades of warnings about an AI apocalypse do not justify much concern today. — tap to centre the map on it Decades of warnings about an AI apocalypse do not justify much concern today. Last stated a month ago
12 Sept 2026
PF
Paul Ford — holds since 2026-09-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: It is good that the agents-talking-to-agents scare happened in 2026 rather than in 2030, when AI could actually be scary enough to warrant it. — tap to centre the map on it It is good that the agents-talking-to-agents scare happened in 2026 rather than in 2030, when AI could actually be scary enough to warrant it. Last stated 8 months ago
12 Feb 2026
PS
Peter Steinberger — holds since 2026-02-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Society has catching up to do: AI is incredibly powerful and not always right, and people who argue 'but my agent said so' have not learned that yet. — tap to centre the map on it Society has catching up to do: AI is incredibly powerful and not always right, and people who argue 'but my agent said so' have not learned that yet. Last stated 8 months ago
12 Feb 2026
PS
Peter Steinberger — holds since 2026-02-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: It would be disappointing and surprising if the next five years of AI progress in mathematics produced no economically valuable improvements traceable to it. — tap to centre the map on it It would be disappointing and surprising if the next five years of AI progress in mathematics produced no economically valuable improvements traceable to it. Last stated 4 months ago
30 Jun 2026
GS
Grant Sanderson — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: There is a good chance that AI will kill everyone soon. — tap to centre the map on it There is a good chance that AI will kill everyone soon. Last stated a month ago
11 Sept 2026
ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-09-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: If AIs can now considerably improve the training of future AIs, this is very unlikely to end well. — tap to centre the map on it If AIs can now considerably improve the training of future AIs, this is very unlikely to end well. Last stated 4 days ago
21 Oct 2026
KP
Kelsey Piper — holds since 2026-10-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Roughly half of the possible outcomes of advanced AI development would be good or great for society. — tap to centre the map on it Roughly half of the possible outcomes of advanced AI development would be good or great for society. Last stated a month ago
15 Sept 2026
MS
M.G. Siegler — holds since 2026-09-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching. — tap to centre the map on it Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching. Last stated 2 months ago
20 Aug 2026
AD
Aswath Damodaran — holds since 2026-08-20 — tap for who they are
HM
Howard Marks — holds since 2025-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A unit of measure needs defining, perhaps via a chain of increasingly hard problems, each pair of which a single model can solve. — tap to centre the map on it A unit of measure needs defining, perhaps via a chain of increasingly hard problems, each pair of which a single model can solve. Last stated a month ago
15 Sept 2026
PG
Paul Graham — holds since 2026-09-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Being able to statistically predict what someone will say does not mean you understand them. — tap to centre the map on it Being able to statistically predict what someone will say does not mean you understand them. Last stated a month ago
18 Sept 2026
CD
Cory Doctorow — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Both the special-purpose-programs view and the blank-slate view of human intelligence are likely incorrect. — tap to centre the map on it Both the special-purpose-programs view and the blank-slate view of human intelligence are likely incorrect. Last stated 7 years ago
5 Nov 2019
FC
François Chollet — holds since 2019-11-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. — tap to centre the map on it A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. Last stated 10 months ago
1 Jan 2026
JL
Jason Lemkin — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. — tap to centre the map on it A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. Last stated 3 months ago
15 Jul 2026
DH
Dex Horthy — holds since 2026-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls. — tap to centre the map on it A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls. Last stated a month ago
17 Sept 2026
PC
Patrick Collison — holds since 2026-09-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A rogue deployment that gets a foothold can hitch a ride on the intelligence explosion, recruiting each new model as it comes off the presses. — tap to centre the map on it A rogue deployment that gets a foothold can hitch a ride on the intelligence explosion, recruiting each new model as it comes off the presses. Last stated 2 months ago
1 Sept 2026
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A slightly more capable agent swarm has a very strong incentive to set up a wholly unmonitored rogue deployment of itself. — tap to centre the map on it A slightly more capable agent swarm has a very strong incentive to set up a wholly unmonitored rogue deployment of itself. Last stated 2 months ago
1 Sept 2026
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: If frontier agents cannot yet establish a covert, persistent rogue deployment, they very likely will be able to within six months. — tap to centre the map on it If frontier agents cannot yet establish a covert, persistent rogue deployment, they very likely will be able to within six months. Last stated 2 months ago
1 Sept 2026
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
At the centre
That the confident predictions of AI ending the world have not come true should update people's predictions about the future.
Holds Read this korrent →
Decades of warnings about an AI apocalypse do not justify much concern today.
Holds
It is good that the agents-talking-to-agents scare happened in 2026 rather than in 2030, when AI could actually be scary enough to warrant it.
Holds
Society has catching up to do: AI is incredibly powerful and not always right, and people who argue 'but my agent said so' have not learned that yet.
Holds
It would be disappointing and surprising if the next five years of AI progress in mathematics produced no economically valuable improvements traceable to it.
Holds
There is a good chance that AI will kill everyone soon.
Holds
If AIs can now considerably improve the training of future AIs, this is very unlikely to end well.
Holds
Roughly half of the possible outcomes of advanced AI development would be good or great for society.
Holds
Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching.
Holds
A unit of measure needs defining, perhaps via a chain of increasingly hard problems, each pair of which a single model can solve.
Holds
Being able to statistically predict what someone will say does not mean you understand them.
Holds
Both the special-purpose-programs view and the blank-slate view of human intelligence are likely incorrect.
Holds
A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI.
Holds
A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to.
Holds
A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls.
Holds
A rogue deployment that gets a foothold can hitch a ride on the intelligence explosion, recruiting each new model as it comes off the presses.
Holds
A slightly more capable agent swarm has a very strong incentive to set up a wholly unmonitored rogue deployment of itself.
Holds
If frontier agents cannot yet establish a covert, persistent rogue deployment, they very likely will be able to within six months.
Holds