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← Large electoral swings are very real and can happen in both directions.

17 connected korrents · 16 moments from 30 May 2013 to 4 Nov 2026.

Everything filed under democracy democracy Everything filed under America America Everything filed under immigration immigration Everything filed under politics politics Everything filed under government government Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: Large electoral swings are very real and can happen in both directions. Large electoral swings are very real andcan happen in both directions. Last stated today 4 Nov 2026 MY Matthew Yglesias — holds since 2026-11-04 — tap for who they are Same subject: Indian elections have often been subject to industrial-scale rigging through captured national institutions. — tap to centre the map on it Indian elections have often beensubject to industrial-scale riggingthrough captured nationalinstitutions. Last stated a year ago 7 Jun 2025 RG Rahul Gandhi — holds since 2025-06-07 — tap for who they are Same subject: Small polling errors can produce large electoral effects. — tap to centre the map on it Small polling errors can producelarge electoral effects. Last stated a month ago 23 Sept 2026 JM Josh Marshall — holds since 2026-09-23 — tap for who they are Same subject: Massive campaign spending has limited effect on election outcomes in a lopsided political environment. — tap to centre the map on it Massive campaign spending haslimited effect on election outcomesin a lopsided political environment. Last stated a month ago 23 Sept 2026 JM Josh Marshall — holds since 2026-09-23 — tap for who they are Same subject: State-by-state polling errors are correlated in midterms but not as much as in presidential years. — tap to centre the map on it State-by-state polling errors arecorrelated in midterms but not asmuch as in presidential years. Last stated yesterday 3 Nov 2026 NS Nate Silver — holds since 2026-11-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: If polls are off, they will likely be off in the same direction everywhere. — tap to centre the map on it If polls are off, they will likelybe off in the same directioneverywhere. Last stated 2 days ago 2 Nov 2026 BD Brad DeLong — holds since 2026-11-02 — tap for who they are Same subject: Inaccurate beliefs that the world is getting worse drive poor policy decisions and can swing elections. — tap to centre the map on it Inaccurate beliefs that the world isgetting worse drive poor policydecisions and can swing elections. Last stated 3 years ago 8 Dec 2023 AD Annie Duke — holds since 2023-12-08 — tap for who they are Same subject: Real-world voters are often systematically ignorant, perform poorly when evaluating information, and sometimes hold deeply illiberal values. — tap to centre the map on it Real-world voters are oftensystematically ignorant, performpoorly when evaluating information,and sometimes hold deeply illiberalvalues. Last stated a month ago 4 Oct 2026 IS Ilya Somin — holds since 2026-10-04 — tap for who they are Same subject: The premise that climate change does not swing votes is questionable. — tap to centre the map on it The premise that climate change doesnot swing votes is questionable. Last stated 6 days ago 29 Oct 2026 EA Emily Atkin — holds since 2026-10-29 — tap for who they are Same subject: A ban on AI is unlikely. — tap to centre the map on it A ban on AI is unlikely. Last stated 4 months ago 18 Jul 2026 JH John Horgan — holds since 2026-07-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: A ban on self-recursive improvement in AI models would create a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute. — tap to centre the map on it A ban on self-recursive improvementin AI models would create a bigincentive for some other parts ofthe world to invest a lot more incompute. Last stated a month ago 22 Sept 2026 TC Tyler Cowen — holds since 2026-09-22 — tap for who they are Same subject: A border wall through Big Bend would be a monument to corruption that makes no one safer. — tap to centre the map on it A border wall through Big Bend wouldbe a monument to corruption thatmakes no one safer. Last stated 4 months ago 13 Jul 2026 JT James Talarico — holds since 2026-07-13 — tap for who they are Same subject: “Happy Juneteenth” is an oxymoron, since the promise it marks has been perpetually broken. — tap to centre the map on it “Happy Juneteenth” is an oxymoron,since the promise it marks has beenperpetually broken. Last stated 5 months ago 19 Jun 2026 RJ Robert Jones, Jr. — holds since 2026-06-19 — tap for who they are Same subject: A ban on diesel exports would raise overall fuel prices and damage America's energy superpower status. — tap to centre the map on it A ban on diesel exports would raiseoverall fuel prices and damageAmerica's energy superpower status. Last stated a month ago 1 Oct 2026 AE Alex Epstein — holds since 2026-10-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: A ban on U.S. diesel fuel exports is more likely to raise prices than lower them. — tap to centre the map on it A ban on U.S. diesel fuel exports ismore likely to raise prices thanlower them. Last stated a month ago 23 Sept 2026 JM Josh Marshall — holds since 2026-09-23 — tap for who they are Same subject: A career path becomes popular when it offers clear, prescribed rules that can simply be decoded and followed. — tap to centre the map on it A career path becomes popular whenit offers clear, prescribed rulesthat can simply be decoded andfollowed. Last stated 7 months ago 28 Mar 2026 PM Paul Millerd — holds since 2026-03-28 — tap for who they are Same subject: A clear path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants is compatible with enforcing the law — tap to centre the map on it A clear path to citizenship forundocumented immigrants iscompatible with enforcing the law Last stated 13 years ago 30 May 2013 OW Oprah Winfrey — holds since 2013-05-30 — tap for who they are Same subject: A country benefits from immigration in proportion to whether the people arriving are net contributors who assimilate. — tap to centre the map on it A country benefits from immigrationin proportion to whether the peoplearriving are net contributors whoassimilate. Last stated 2 months ago 26 Aug 2026 DH David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
same subject or similar wordinga cloud: claims about one subject, named for itbar: when it was last stated, on a scale from 2013 to today (stretched back to the oldest claim here) — full is todaya face: someone who holds the claim — tap it for who they are

At the centre Large electoral swings are very real and can happen in both directions. Last stated 4 Nov 2026 · today Holds Matthew Yglesias Read this korrent →