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← Human civilization would be winning wondrously if we are exploring the galaxy with Von Neumann probes by 2100

17 connected korrents · 17 moments from 7 Sept 2008 to 29 Oct 2026.

Everything filed under LLMs LLMs Everything filed under reinforcement learning reinforcement learning Everything filed under OpenAI OpenAI Everything filed under AGI AGI Everything filed under AI alignment AI alignment Everything filed under robotics robotics Everything filed under America America Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: Human civilization would be winning wondrously if we are exploring the galaxy with Von Neumann probes by 2100 Human civilization would be winningwondrously if we are exploring the galaxywith Von Neumann probes by 2100 Last stated yesterday 29 Oct 2026 EM Elon Musk — holds since 2026-10-29 — tap for who they are Same subject: Robots will not be able to beat the best human basketball players in a full game by 2040. — tap to centre the map on it Robots will not be able to beat thebest human basketball players in afull game by 2040. Last stated 2 months ago 14 Sept 2026 KK Kevin Kelly — holds since 2026-09-14 — tap for who they are Same subject: The probability that AI destroys human civilization is about 10%. — tap to centre the map on it The probability that AI destroyshuman civilization is about 10%. Last stated a year ago 5 Jun 2025 LF Lex Fridman — holds since 2025-06-05 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI will likely kill some people on the way to killing all of humanity. — tap to centre the map on it AI will likely kill some people onthe way to killing all of humanity. Last stated 2 months ago 13 Sept 2026 NR Naval Ravikant — holds since 2026-09-13 — tap for who they are Same subject: Humanity should be wary of answering signals from alien civilisations until it has developed further. — tap to centre the map on it Humanity should be wary of answeringsignals from alien civilisationsuntil it has developed further. SH Stephen Hawking — holds since c. 1996 — tap for who they are Same subject: Humanity deserves a C- for how it adapted to the Industrial Revolution, and a C- for AI would be the end of us — tap to centre the map on it Humanity deserves a C- for how itadapted to the IndustrialRevolution, and a C- for AI would bethe end of us Last stated 3 years ago 11 Jan 2024 YH Yuval Noah Harari — holds since 2024-01-11 — tap for who they are Same subject: There is infinite demand for intelligence. — tap to centre the map on it There is infinite demand forintelligence. Last stated 2 months ago 9 Sept 2026 GR Guillermo Rauch — holds since 2026-09-09 — tap for who they are Same subject: Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level artificial intelligenceis plausibly centuries or millenniaaway, and no trend supports ashorter estimate. Last stated 3 years ago 13 Dec 2023 SA Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are SA Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are Same subject: Whatever the term, by 2030 AI progress will be so dramatic that the world will be dealing with its consequences, good and bad, in a big way. — tap to centre the map on it Whatever the term, by 2030 AIprogress will be so dramatic thatthe world will be dealing with itsconsequences, good and bad, in a bigway. Last stated a year ago 5 Jun 2025 SP Sundar Pichai — holds since 2025-06-05 — tap for who they are Same subject: A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. — tap to centre the map on it A badly written AI outbound email isevidence of a bad vendor, not of alimit of AI. Last stated 10 months ago 1 Jan 2026 JL Jason Lemkin — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. — tap to centre the map on it A bigger context window does notgive you a smarter model; theintelligence of the model is whatdecides how much of that window itcan actually attend to. Last stated 4 months ago 15 Jul 2026 DH Dex Horthy — holds since 2026-07-15 — tap for who they are Same subject: A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls. — tap to centre the map on it A body of publications is easy forAI models to consume via pretrainingcorpora but cumbersome for mosthumans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts,and paywalls. Last stated a month ago 17 Sept 2026 PC Patrick Collison — holds since 2026-09-17 — tap for who they are Same subject: A physical AI company needs three AIs, not one — the agent, the simulator and the critic — turning deployment into a flywheel. — tap to centre the map on it A physical AI company needs threeAIs, not one — the agent, thesimulator and the critic — turningdeployment into a flywheel. Last stated 3 months ago 3 Aug 2026 DD Dmitri Dolgov — holds since 2026-08-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: A verifiable task can be optimised by reinforcement learning until a neural network performs it extremely well. — tap to centre the map on it A verifiable task can be optimisedby reinforcement learning until aneural network performs it extremelywell. Last stated 11 months ago 17 Nov 2025 AK Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-11-17 — tap for who they are Same subject: Anything precise enough to benchmark is also precise enough to optimize for, and modern RL training increasingly resembles the shape of the benchmarks themselves. — tap to centre the map on it Anything precise enough to benchmarkis also precise enough to optimizefor, and modern RL trainingincreasingly resembles the shape ofthe benchmarks themselves. Last stated 6 months ago 16 Apr 2026 SK Sayash Kapoor — holds since 2026-04-16 — tap for who they are Same subject: A PHP vulnerability found with GPT-5.6 Sol will cause havoc this week. — tap to centre the map on it A PHP vulnerability found withGPT-5.6 Sol will cause havoc thisweek. Last stated a week ago 21 Oct 2026 PS Peter Steinberger — holds since 2026-10-21 — tap for who they are Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as anonprofit and bolt a for-profit armon later, whatever OpenAI's ownhistory suggests. Last stated 3 years ago 18 Mar 2024 SA Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact. — tap to centre the map on it A tiny language model inventing aplausible-sounding name is the samephenomenon as a large oneconfidently stating a false fact. Last stated 9 months ago 12 Feb 2026 AK Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2026-02-12 — tap for who they are
same subject or similar wordinga cloud: claims about one subject, named for itbar: when it was last stated, on a scale from 2008 to today (stretched back to the oldest claim here) — full is todaya face: someone who holds the claim — tap it for who they arefaded, dashed ring: they no longer hold it — they changed their mind

At the centre Human civilization would be winning wondrously if we are exploring the galaxy with Von Neumann probes by 2100 Last stated 29 Oct 2026 · yesterday Holds Elon Musk Read this korrent →