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← His own predictions of when something will ship are pathologically…
17 connected korrents · 17 moments on record from 24 Oct 2017 to 4 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under AI alignment
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OpenAI Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: His own predictions of when something will ship are pathologically optimistic, and the criticism that he is late is correct. His own predictions of when something will ship are pathologically optimistic, and the criticism that he is late is correct. Last stated 3 years ago
9 Nov 2023
EM
Elon Musk — holds since 2023-11-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: He was wrong to lock in on autocomplete as what AI would be; Tobi Lütke saw further ahead, and he is frustrated he lacked that conviction. — tap to centre the map on it He was wrong to lock in on autocomplete as what AI would be; Tobi Lütke saw further ahead, and he is frustrated he… Last stated a month ago
26 Jul 2026
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-07-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: It is always right to ship a game late rather than bad, because a bad game is bad forever while a late good game is eventually released and is good. — tap to centre the map on it It is always right to ship a game late rather than bad, because a bad game is bad forever while a late good game… Last stated a year ago
30 Apr 2025
TS
Tim Sweeney — holds since 2025-04-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously. — tap to centre the map on it The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to… Last stated 4 years ago
30 Jun 2022
HK
Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2022-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: He is an optimist about humanity's future because he would almost always rather have been born now than at any earlier time. — tap to centre the map on it He is an optimist about humanity's future because he would almost always rather have been born now than at any… Last stated a year ago
5 Jun 2025
SP
Sundar Pichai — holds since 2025-06-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: There is a coin-flip chance that AGI arrives by 2030. — tap to centre the map on it There is a coin-flip chance that AGI arrives by 2030. Last stated a year ago
23 Jul 2025
DH
Demis Hassabis — holds since 2025-07-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: There is no point arguing about whether or when engineers will ship code they have not read; the only useful question is what it would take. — tap to centre the map on it There is no point arguing about whether or when engineers will ship code they have not read; the only useful… Last stated 4 weeks ago
12 Aug 2026
CM
Charity Majors — holds since 2026-08-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The date that matters for robotics is not when the technology is finished but when the data flywheel starts turning. — tap to centre the map on it The date that matters for robotics is not when the technology is finished but when the data flywheel starts… Last stated 12 months ago
12 Sept 2025
SL
Sergey Levine — holds since 2025-09-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: David Ricardo's prediction that the machines would take those jobs was exactly right, and he would still be astonished by today's employment rate. — tap to centre the map on it David Ricardo's prediction that the machines would take those jobs was exactly right, and he would still be… Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. — tap to centre the map on it A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up… Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean. — tap to centre the map on it A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so… Last stated 9 months ago
25 Nov 2025
IS
Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. — tap to centre the map on it A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply… Last stated a year ago
7 Jun 2025
GM
Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-06-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history… Last stated 2 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it. — tap to centre the map on it A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both… Last stated 4 days ago
3 Sept 2026
ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact. — tap to centre the map on it A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently… Last stated 7 months ago
12 Feb 2026
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2026-02-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A superintelligence needs no consciousness, emotions or malice to be dangerous; a goal system slightly misaligned with ours is enough. — tap to centre the map on it A superintelligence needs no consciousness, emotions or malice to be dangerous; a goal system slightly misaligned… Last stated 9 years ago
24 Oct 2017
ÉT
Émile P. Torres — holds since 2017-10-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Access to large-scale generalist AI systems that could be weaponized should be limited, meaning their code and neural network parameters should not be released open-source. — tap to centre the map on it Access to large-scale generalist AI systems that could be weaponized should be limited, meaning their code… Last stated 3 years ago
24 Jun 2023
YB
Yoshua Bengio — holds since 2023-06-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI labs tend to downplay safety risks in their public rhetoric even while acting responsibly in practice. — tap to centre the map on it AI labs tend to downplay safety risks in their public rhetoric even while acting responsibly in practice. Last stated 3 days ago
4 Sept 2026
ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-09-04 — tap for who they are
At the centre
His own predictions of when something will ship are pathologically optimistic, and the criticism that he is late is correct.
Holds Read this korrent →
He was wrong to lock in on autocomplete as what AI would be; Tobi Lütke saw further ahead, and he is frustrated he lacked that conviction.
Holds
It is always right to ship a game late rather than bad, because a bad game is bad forever while a late good game is eventually released and is good.
Holds TS Tim Sweeney
The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously.
Holds HK Holden Karnofsky
He is an optimist about humanity's future because he would almost always rather have been born now than at any earlier time.
Holds
There is a coin-flip chance that AGI arrives by 2030.
Holds DH Demis Hassabis
There is no point arguing about whether or when engineers will ship code they have not read; the only useful question is what it would take.
Holds CM Charity Majors
The date that matters for robotics is not when the technology is finished but when the data flywheel starts turning.
Holds SL Sergey Levine
David Ricardo's prediction that the machines would take those jobs was exactly right, and he would still be astonished by today's employment rate.
Holds AI Alex Imas
A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated.
Holds AI Alex Imas
A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean.
Holds IS Ilya Sutskever
A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted.
Holds GM Gary Marcus
A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests.
Holds
A technique that lets an AI model's reasoning shift outside its visible Chain of Thought is dangerous, both because it works and because a leading lab is willing to deploy it.
Holds ZM Zvi Mowshowitz
A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact.
Holds
A superintelligence needs no consciousness, emotions or malice to be dangerous; a goal system slightly misaligned with ours is enough.
Holds ÉT Émile P. Torres
Access to large-scale generalist AI systems that could be weaponized should be limited, meaning their code and neural network parameters should not be released open-source.
Holds
AI labs tend to downplay safety risks in their public rhetoric even while acting responsibly in practice.
Holds ZM Zvi Mowshowitz