korrents

On the map

Tap a claim on the ring to put it at the centre.

← Every scientific field eventually exhausts itself: progress within a paradigm follows an S-curve and then runs out.

17 connected korrents · 16 moments from 6 Nov 2015 to 18 Sept 2026.

Everything filed under innovation innovation Everything filed under physics physics Everything filed under scaling laws scaling laws Everything filed under LLMs LLMs Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: Every scientific field eventually exhausts itself: progress within a paradigm follows an S-curve and then runs out. Every scientific field eventually exhaustsitself: progress within a paradigm followsan S-curve and then runs out. Last stated 6 years ago 20 Jun 2020 JR José Luis Ricón — holds since 2020-06-20 — tap for who they are Same subject: Marketing channels do not settle onto a plateau; after the S-curve they sag, which is why the shape is an elephant and not an S. — tap to centre the map on it Marketing channels do not settleonto a plateau; after the S-curvethey sag, which is why the shape isan elephant and not an S. Last stated 9 months ago 25 Jan 2026 JC Jason Cohen — holds since 2026-01-25 — tap for who they are Same subject: An exponential feels like it cannot possibly keep going, which is exactly why people keep expecting AI progress to stop. — tap to centre the map on it An exponential feels like it cannotpossibly keep going, which isexactly why people keep expecting AIprogress to stop. Last stated 4 months ago 10 Jun 2026 MZ Mark Zuckerberg — holds since 2026-06-10 — tap for who they are Same subject: The simple work gets automated away, but the hard sciences and the places where they intersect never will. — tap to centre the map on it The simple work gets automated away,but the hard sciences and the placeswhere they intersect never will. Last stated 3 months ago 26 Jul 2026 JH Jensen Huang — holds since 2026-07-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: The thing worth finding is the exponential with the steepest curve that will run the longest — decades ago that was Moore’s law, and today it is AI progress. — tap to centre the map on it The thing worth finding is theexponential with the steepest curvethat will run the longest — decadesago that was Moore’s law, and todayit is AI progress. Last stated 3 months ago 29 Jul 2026 AW Alexandr Wang — holds since 2026-07-29 — tap for who they are Same subject: The scaling curve really is S-shaped, but there are at least two cycles left in it, which means models sixteen times smarter and all knowledge work subsumed. — tap to centre the map on it The scaling curve really isS-shaped, but there are at least twocycles left in it, which meansmodels sixteen times smarter and allknowledge work subsumed. Last stated 7 months ago 11 Mar 2026 SY Steve Yegge — holds since 2026-03-11 — tap for who they are Same subject: In an intellectually dead research field, feeding AI decades of meaningless work only produces more meaningless output. — tap to centre the map on it In an intellectually dead researchfield, feeding AI decades ofmeaningless work only produces moremeaningless output. Last stated 3 months ago 26 Jul 2026 PW Peter Woit — holds since 2026-07-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: Progress is not driven mainly by material resources, so running out of them is not what would stop it. — tap to centre the map on it Progress is not driven mainly bymaterial resources, so running outof them is not what would stop it. Last stated 6 years ago 12 Sept 2020 JC Jason Crawford — holds since 2020-09-12 — tap for who they are Same subject: String theory, the leading candidate for decades, is slowly going out of fashion because it is not matching experiment. — tap to centre the map on it String theory, the leading candidatefor decades, is slowly going out offashion because it is not matchingexperiment. Last stated a year ago 14 Jun 2025 TT Terence Tao — holds since 2025-06-14 — tap for who they are Same subject: "Lots of anonymous people worked it out by trial and error" is never the real story of an invention: on closer investigation, identifiable people always turn out to be responsible. — tap to centre the map on it "Lots of anonymous people worked itout by trial and error" is never thereal story of an invention: oncloser investigation, identifiablepeople always turn out to beresponsible. Last stated 3 years ago 25 Oct 2023 AH Anton Howes — holds since 2023-10-25 — tap for who they are Same subject: A business can have market fit, real advantages, and sustained effort behind a hard product and still fail if it doesn't give customers a strong enough reason to switch from what they already use. — tap to centre the map on it A business can have market fit, realadvantages, and sustained effortbehind a hard product and still failif it doesn't give customers astrong enough reason to switch fromwhat they already use. Last stated 5 months ago 2 Jun 2026 JJ Justin Jackson — holds since 2026-06-02 — tap for who they are Same subject: A capability existing is not the same as a capability being absorbed: how fast a technology changes the world is not set by how fast the technology improves. — tap to centre the map on it A capability existing is not thesame as a capability being absorbed:how fast a technology changes theworld is not set by how fast thetechnology improves. Last stated 3 months ago 21 Jul 2026 RT Ruxandra Teslo — holds since 2026-07-21 — tap for who they are Same subject: A person who works from a recipe, even an innovative one, starts from something that already exists. — tap to centre the map on it A person who works from a recipe,even an innovative one, starts fromsomething that already exists. Last stated 11 years ago 6 Nov 2015 TU Tim Urban — holds since 2015-11-06 — tap for who they are Same subject: A system trained only on what is already known cannot produce genuine surprises, because a known thing stops being a surprise. — tap to centre the map on it A system trained only on what isalready known cannot produce genuinesurprises, because a known thingstops being a surprise. Last stated a month ago 18 Sept 2026 CD Cory Doctorow — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: A too-faithful remake of an existing work squanders creative effort that could have made something new. — tap to centre the map on it A too-faithful remake of an existingwork squanders creative effort thatcould have made something new. Last stated 2 months ago 4 Sept 2026 MW Matt Webb — holds since 2026-09-04 — tap for who they are Same subject: A minor bust in the AI industry would be a good thing, not a bad one. — tap to centre the map on it A minor bust in the AI industrywould be a good thing, not a badone. Last stated a month ago 18 Sept 2026 RS Robin Sloan — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI capability progress in a given skill tends to arrive as a sudden phase change rather than as steady improvement. — tap to centre the map on it AI capability progress in a givenskill tends to arrive as a suddenphase change rather than as steadyimprovement. Last stated 2 months ago 24 Aug 2026 JC Jack Clark — holds since 2026-08-24 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI represents the largest change to society in a very long time, perhaps ever. — tap to centre the map on it AI represents the largest change tosociety in a very long time, perhapsever. Last stated 6 months ago 10 Apr 2026 SA Sam Altman — holds since 2026-04-10 — tap for who they are
same subject or similar wordinga cloud: claims about one subject, named for itbar: when it was last stated, on a scale from 2015 to today — full is todaya face: someone who holds the claim — tap it for who they are

At the centre Every scientific field eventually exhausts itself: progress within a paradigm follows an S-curve and then runs out. Last stated 20 Jun 2020 · 6 years ago Holds José Luis Ricón Read this korrent →