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← Big AI labs are better at predicting the future than the average…
17 connected korrents · 16 moments from 28 Sept 2023 to 4 Oct 2026.
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LLMs
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Anthropic
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OpenAI
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scaling laws
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energy
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reinforcement learning
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AI and jobs
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the cloud Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Big AI labs are better at predicting the future than the average person because they have access to superior AI forecasting models. Big AI labs are better at predicting the future than the average person because they have access to superior AI forecasting models. Last stated yesterday
4 Oct 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-10-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: As AI systems get better at scientific research tasks, it becomes more likely they will soon be capable of improving and building themselves. — tap to centre the map on it As AI systems get better at scientific research tasks, it becomes more likely they will soon be capable of improving and building themselves. Last stated 2 months ago
17 Aug 2026
JC
Jack Clark — holds since 2026-08-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI models can be more accurate than physical experiments by averaging out noise, incorporating priors from large datasets, and interpolating between data points. — tap to centre the map on it AI models can be more accurate than physical experiments by averaging out noise, incorporating priors from large datasets, and interpolating between data points. Last stated 10 months ago
23 Nov 2025
EH
Elliot Hershberg — holds since 2025-11-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI labs will bifurcate into specialities rather than each trying to be good at everything, the way people choose a speciality. — tap to centre the map on it AI labs will bifurcate into specialities rather than each trying to be good at everything, the way people choose a speciality. Last stated 9 months ago
8 Jan 2026
JH
Jensen Huang — holds since 2026-01-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Today's RL environments are better than 2024's because we learned what to build and put AI labour on building it, not because labs hired more human experts. — tap to centre the map on it Today's RL environments are better than 2024's because we learned what to build and put AI labour on building it, not because labs hired more human experts. Last stated 2 months ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: People will matter more in an AI future, not less, and giving them better tools is what makes that future a good one. — tap to centre the map on it People will matter more in an AI future, not less, and giving them better tools is what makes that future a good one. Last stated 4 months ago
10 Jun 2026
MZ
Mark Zuckerberg — holds since 2026-06-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The AI research cycle from idea to experiment will likely soon be 10x faster, but that may not make researchers 10x more productive in the field's net understanding. — tap to centre the map on it The AI research cycle from idea to experiment will likely soon be 10x faster, but that may not make researchers 10x more productive in the field's net understanding. Last stated 2 weeks ago
22 Sept 2026
NL
Nathan Lambert — holds since 2026-09-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The future is a variety of AIs each person works with, not one big super intelligence. — tap to centre the map on it The future is a variety of AIs each person works with, not one big super intelligence. Last stated 3 years ago
28 Sept 2023
MZ
Mark Zuckerberg — holds since 2023-09-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Cloud AI models are still better than local models for tasks that need high accuracy, large context handling, or production-grade reliability. — tap to centre the map on it Cloud AI models are still better than local models for tasks that need high accuracy, large context handling, or production-grade reliability. Last stated 6 months ago
9 Apr 2026
EB
Emanuele Bartolesi — holds since 2026-04-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. — tap to centre the map on it Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Agents are going to be incorporated into mainstream interfaces — tap to centre the map on it Agents are going to be incorporated into mainstream interfaces Last stated 6 months ago
25 Mar 2026
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-03-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next. — tap to centre the map on it "Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next. Last stated 10 months ago
25 Nov 2025
IS
Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. Last stated 3 months ago
26 Jun 2026
NB
Noam Brown — holds since 2026-06-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A lab should spend most of its compute on research rather than on building the next model, because research is where the tenfold yearly efficiency gains come from. — tap to centre the map on it A lab should spend most of its compute on research rather than on building the next model, because research is where the tenfold yearly efficiency gains come from. Last stated 7 months ago
13 Mar 2026
DP
Dylan Patel — holds since 2026-03-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "I don't know" becomes a kind of superpower when you can work with Claude Code to figure things out. — tap to centre the map on it "I don't know" becomes a kind of superpower when you can work with Claude Code to figure things out. Last stated 7 months ago
19 Mar 2026
KP
Kris Puckett — holds since 2026-03-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A benchmark that ranks Claude Code last while it stays first in use is measuring the wrong thing, and has been for a year. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark that ranks Claude Code last while it stays first in use is measuring the wrong thing, and has been for a year. Last stated a month ago
3 Sept 2026
DR
Dax Raad — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A skill is a set of repeatable, specific instructions that augments what Claude Code can do. — tap to centre the map on it A skill is a set of repeatable, specific instructions that augments what Claude Code can do. Last stated 7 months ago
19 Mar 2026
KP
Kris Puckett — holds since 2026-03-19 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Big AI labs are better at predicting the future than the average person because they have access to superior AI forecasting models.
Holds Read this korrent →
As AI systems get better at scientific research tasks, it becomes more likely they will soon be capable of improving and building themselves.
Holds
AI models can be more accurate than physical experiments by averaging out noise, incorporating priors from large datasets, and interpolating between data points.
Holds
AI labs will bifurcate into specialities rather than each trying to be good at everything, the way people choose a speciality.
Holds
Today's RL environments are better than 2024's because we learned what to build and put AI labour on building it, not because labs hired more human experts.
Holds
People will matter more in an AI future, not less, and giving them better tools is what makes that future a good one.
Holds
The AI research cycle from idea to experiment will likely soon be 10x faster, but that may not make researchers 10x more productive in the field's net understanding.
Holds
The future is a variety of AIs each person works with, not one big super intelligence.
Holds
Cloud AI models are still better than local models for tasks that need high accuracy, large context handling, or production-grade reliability.
Holds
A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests.
Holds
Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers.
Holds
Agents are going to be incorporated into mainstream interfaces
Holds
"Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next.
Holds
A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number.
Holds
A lab should spend most of its compute on research rather than on building the next model, because research is where the tenfold yearly efficiency gains come from.
Holds
"I don't know" becomes a kind of superpower when you can work with Claude Code to figure things out.
Holds
A benchmark that ranks Claude Code last while it stays first in use is measuring the wrong thing, and has been for a year.
Holds
A skill is a set of repeatable, specific instructions that augments what Claude Code can do.
Holds