Tap a claim on the ring to put it at the centre.
← An idea can look obvious in hindsight only because the insight that makes it obvious was itself the hard discovery.
17 connected korrents · 19 moments from 31 Aug 2015 to 25 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under innovation
innovation
Everything filed under market efficiency
market efficiency
Everything filed under behavioural science
behavioural science
Everything filed under design
design
Everything filed under ambition
ambition
Everything filed under AGI
AGI
Everything filed under AI and science
AI and science
Everything filed under LLMs
LLMs Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: An idea can look obvious in hindsight only because the insight that makes it obvious was itself the hard discovery. An idea can look obvious in hindsight only because the insight that makes it obvious was itself the hard discovery. Last stated 11 years ago
31 Aug 2015
CO
Christopher Olah — holds since 2015-08-31 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Even the most advanced AI cannot be followed blindly in investing, where value added is zero-sum and what is widely known is therefore worth little. — tap to centre the map on it Even the most advanced AI cannot be followed blindly in investing, where value added is zero-sum and what is widely known is therefore worth little. Last stated 4 months ago
10 Jun 2026
RD
Ray Dalio — holds since 2026-06-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Teaching people a decision model is useless, because the intuition it rests on is built from experience and has no shortcut. — tap to centre the map on it Teaching people a decision model is useless, because the intuition it rests on is built from experience and has no shortcut. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Obviousness comes from conforming to people's existing mental models: do not reinvent a common UI pattern unless the new one is at least twice as good. — tap to centre the map on it Obviousness comes from conforming to people's existing mental models: do not reinvent a common UI pattern unless the new one is at least twice as good. Last stated 3 years ago
16 Nov 2023
JZ
Julie Zhuo — holds since 2023-11-16 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Thinking harder about a decision has diminishing returns because reality is inherently unknowable. — tap to centre the map on it Thinking harder about a decision has diminishing returns because reality is inherently unknowable. Last stated 5 years ago
22 Feb 2022
NN
Neel Nanda — holds since 2022-02-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: You need to build early with AI to have any intuition for when the models become capable. — tap to centre the map on it You need to build early with AI to have any intuition for when the models become capable. Last stated 3 weeks ago
10 Sept 2026
MK
Mike Krieger — holds since 2026-09-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: If AI can build the new theory that crystallises how to think about a subject, it would be surprising if that capability did not spill into the rest of the economy. — tap to centre the map on it If AI can build the new theory that crystallises how to think about a subject, it would be surprising if that capability did not spill into the rest of the economy. Last stated 3 months ago
30 Jun 2026
GS
Grant Sanderson — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A compound's AI origin story is not by itself a reason to expect it to do better in the clinic. — tap to centre the map on it A compound's AI origin story is not by itself a reason to expect it to do better in the clinic. Last stated 2 years ago
13 May 2024
DL
Derek Lowe — holds since 2024-05-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The knowledge a model soaks up in pre-training is holding it back; what we actually want is the intelligence with the knowledge stripped out. — tap to centre the map on it The knowledge a model soaks up in pre-training is holding it back; what we actually want is the intelligence with the knowledge stripped out. Last stated 11 months ago
17 Oct 2025
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-10-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A good idea often fails to spread not for lack of merit but because no convenient way exists to implement it. — tap to centre the map on it A good idea often fails to spread not for lack of merit but because no convenient way exists to implement it. Last stated 4 months ago
7 Jun 2026
SR
Scott Rao — holds since 2026-06-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Acting on an idea reveals its true potential in a way that merely thinking about it cannot. — tap to centre the map on it Acting on an idea reveals its true potential in a way that merely thinking about it cannot. Last stated 5 months ago
26 Apr 2026
EP
Eliot Peper — holds since 2026-04-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Fear and vanity, not a lack of ideas, are what keep most people from building new things. — tap to centre the map on it Fear and vanity, not a lack of ideas, are what keep most people from building new things. Last stated 2 years ago
9 Aug 2024
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2021-09-16 — tap for who they are
SC
Steve Coast — holds since 2024-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Training a frontier model achieves almost nothing by itself; all the economic and military power comes from deploying it, and deployment is what consumes the compute. — tap to centre the map on it Training a frontier model achieves almost nothing by itself; all the economic and military power comes from deploying it, and deployment is what consumes the compute. Last stated 2 years ago
3 Feb 2025
DP
Dylan Patel — holds since 2025-02-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "Lots of anonymous people worked it out by trial and error" is never the real story of an invention: on closer investigation, identifiable people always turn out to be responsible. — tap to centre the map on it "Lots of anonymous people worked it out by trial and error" is never the real story of an invention: on closer investigation, identifiable people always turn out to be responsible. Last stated 3 years ago
25 Oct 2023
AH
Anton Howes — holds since 2023-10-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A business can have market fit, real advantages, and sustained effort behind a hard product and still fail if it doesn't give customers a strong enough reason to switch from what they already use. — tap to centre the map on it A business can have market fit, real advantages, and sustained effort behind a hard product and still fail if it doesn't give customers a strong enough reason to switch from what they already use. Last stated 4 months ago
2 Jun 2026
JJ
Justin Jackson — holds since 2026-06-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A minor bust in the AI industry would be a good thing, not a bad one. — tap to centre the map on it A minor bust in the AI industry would be a good thing, not a bad one. Last stated 2 weeks ago
18 Sept 2026
RS
Robin Sloan — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI capability progress in a given skill tends to arrive as a sudden phase change rather than as steady improvement. — tap to centre the map on it AI capability progress in a given skill tends to arrive as a sudden phase change rather than as steady improvement. Last stated a month ago
24 Aug 2026
JC
Jack Clark — holds since 2026-08-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI is not fundamentally different from other software products. — tap to centre the map on it AI is not fundamentally different from other software products. Last stated a week ago
25 Sept 2026
ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-09-25 — tap for who they are
At the centre
An idea can look obvious in hindsight only because the insight that makes it obvious was itself the hard discovery.
Holds Read this korrent →
Even the most advanced AI cannot be followed blindly in investing, where value added is zero-sum and what is widely known is therefore worth little.
Holds
Teaching people a decision model is useless, because the intuition it rests on is built from experience and has no shortcut.
Holds
Obviousness comes from conforming to people's existing mental models: do not reinvent a common UI pattern unless the new one is at least twice as good.
Holds
Thinking harder about a decision has diminishing returns because reality is inherently unknowable.
Holds
You need to build early with AI to have any intuition for when the models become capable.
Holds
If AI can build the new theory that crystallises how to think about a subject, it would be surprising if that capability did not spill into the rest of the economy.
Holds
A compound's AI origin story is not by itself a reason to expect it to do better in the clinic.
Holds
The knowledge a model soaks up in pre-training is holding it back; what we actually want is the intelligence with the knowledge stripped out.
Holds
A good idea often fails to spread not for lack of merit but because no convenient way exists to implement it.
Holds
Acting on an idea reveals its true potential in a way that merely thinking about it cannot.
Holds
Fear and vanity, not a lack of ideas, are what keep most people from building new things.
Holds
Training a frontier model achieves almost nothing by itself; all the economic and military power comes from deploying it, and deployment is what consumes the compute.
Holds
"Lots of anonymous people worked it out by trial and error" is never the real story of an invention: on closer investigation, identifiable people always turn out to be responsible.
Holds
A business can have market fit, real advantages, and sustained effort behind a hard product and still fail if it doesn't give customers a strong enough reason to switch from what they already use.
Holds
A minor bust in the AI industry would be a good thing, not a bad one.
Holds
AI capability progress in a given skill tends to arrive as a sudden phase change rather than as steady improvement.
Holds
AI is not fundamentally different from other software products.
Holds