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← Almost every confident prediction about AI is a defence mechanism:…
17 connected korrents · 18 moments from 7 May 2024 to 14 Oct 2026.
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OpenAI Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Almost every confident prediction about AI is a defence mechanism: people asserting a future in which they personally turn out to be the winner. Almost every confident prediction about AI is a defence mechanism: people asserting a future in which they personally turn out to be the winner. Last stated 5 months ago
27 May 2026
DR
Dax Raad — holds since 2026-05-27 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching. — tap to centre the map on it Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching. Last stated 2 months ago
20 Aug 2026
AD
Aswath Damodaran — holds since 2026-08-20 — tap for who they are
HM
Howard Marks — holds since 2025-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An AI agent's confidence that something will work is not evidence that it actually will. — tap to centre the map on it An AI agent's confidence that something will work is not evidence that it actually will. Last stated 7 months ago
11 Mar 2026
KD
Kent C. Dodds — holds since 2026-03-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress. — tap to centre the map on it Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress. Last stated 2 months ago
6 Sept 2026
JP
Jakub Pachocki — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI takeover is not the thing to worry about: physical constraints bound recursive self-improvement, and humans reliably act once a risk becomes immediate. — tap to centre the map on it AI takeover is not the thing to worry about: physical constraints bound recursive self-improvement, and humans reliably act once a risk becomes immediate. Last stated 2 years ago
3 Feb 2025
NL
Nathan Lambert — holds since 2025-02-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI in chess and mathematics does not explain anything; it says which position is better, and humans build the theory from that. — tap to centre the map on it AI in chess and mathematics does not explain anything; it says which position is better, and humans build the theory from that. Last stated a year ago
14 Jun 2025
LF
Lex Fridman — holds since 2025-06-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The whole point of reinforcement learning is to produce goal-directed beings, so refusing to describe AI agents as having motives is silly rather than rigorous. — tap to centre the map on it The whole point of reinforcement learning is to produce goal-directed beings, so refusing to describe AI agents as having motives is silly rather than rigorous. Last stated 2 months ago
1 Sept 2026
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The hypotheses AI 'co-scientist' systems are producing are ones the literature already contains, and the publicity around them does not say so. — tap to centre the map on it The hypotheses AI 'co-scientist' systems are producing are ones the literature already contains, and the publicity around them does not say so. Last stated 5 months ago
27 May 2026
DL
Derek Lowe — holds since 2026-05-27 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The AI companies' strategies will converge, because as AI grows more powerful it becomes clearer to everyone what the strategy should be. — tap to centre the map on it The AI companies' strategies will converge, because as AI grows more powerful it becomes clearer to everyone what the strategy should be. Last stated 11 months ago
25 Nov 2025
IS
Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company that uses an algorithm to nudge customers into behavior that isn't good for them is doing something bad. — tap to centre the map on it A company that uses an algorithm to nudge customers into behavior that isn't good for them is doing something bad. Last stated a year ago
7 Oct 2025
MM
Mr. Money Mustache — holds since 2025-10-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail. — tap to centre the map on it A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail. Last stated 2 years ago
7 May 2024
BS
Buck Shlegeris — holds since 2024-05-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score. — tap to centre the map on it A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score. Last stated 2 months ago
26 Aug 2026
HK
Henrik Karlsson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. — tap to centre the map on it A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. Last stated 10 months ago
1 Jan 2026
JL
Jason Lemkin — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. — tap to centre the map on it A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. Last stated 3 months ago
15 Jul 2026
DH
Dex Horthy — holds since 2026-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls. — tap to centre the map on it A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls. Last stated a month ago
17 Sept 2026
PC
Patrick Collison — holds since 2026-09-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Agent containment will be one of the most important priorities for any AI infra company. — tap to centre the map on it Agent containment will be one of the most important priorities for any AI infra company. Last stated a week ago
14 Oct 2026
GR
Guillermo Rauch — holds since 2026-10-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: By 2027, open-weight AI models more powerful than today's frontier systems will be downloadable by any country or well-resourced non-state group. — tap to centre the map on it By 2027, open-weight AI models more powerful than today's frontier systems will be downloadable by any country or well-resourced non-state group. Last stated 2 months ago
19 Aug 2026
DT
Derek Thompson — holds since 2026-08-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The biggest failure in the HuggingFace hack incident was that the AI models involved were severely misaligned. — tap to centre the map on it The biggest failure in the HuggingFace hack incident was that the AI models involved were severely misaligned. Last stated 2 months ago
29 Aug 2026
ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-08-29 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Almost every confident prediction about AI is a defence mechanism: people asserting a future in which they personally turn out to be the winner.
Holds Read this korrent →
Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching.
Holds
An AI agent's confidence that something will work is not evidence that it actually will.
Holds
Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress.
Holds
AI takeover is not the thing to worry about: physical constraints bound recursive self-improvement, and humans reliably act once a risk becomes immediate.
Holds
AI in chess and mathematics does not explain anything; it says which position is better, and humans build the theory from that.
Holds
The whole point of reinforcement learning is to produce goal-directed beings, so refusing to describe AI agents as having motives is silly rather than rigorous.
Holds
The hypotheses AI 'co-scientist' systems are producing are ones the literature already contains, and the publicity around them does not say so.
Holds
The AI companies' strategies will converge, because as AI grows more powerful it becomes clearer to everyone what the strategy should be.
Holds
A company that uses an algorithm to nudge customers into behavior that isn't good for them is doing something bad.
Holds
A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail.
Holds
A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score.
Holds
A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI.
Holds
A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to.
Holds
A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls.
Holds
Agent containment will be one of the most important priorities for any AI infra company.
Holds
By 2027, open-weight AI models more powerful than today's frontier systems will be downloadable by any country or well-resourced non-state group.
Holds
The biggest failure in the HuggingFace hack incident was that the AI models involved were severely misaligned.
Holds