On the map

At the centre Almost every confident prediction about AI is a defence mechanism: people asserting a future in which they personally turn out to be the winner. Holds DRDax Raad Read this korrent →

• Similar wording Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching. Holds ADAswath DamodaranHMHoward Marks
• Similar wording AI takeover is not the thing to worry about: physical constraints bound recursive self-improvement, and humans reliably act once a risk becomes immediate. Holds NLNathan Lambert
• Similar wording AI in chess and mathematics does not explain anything; it says which position is better, and humans build the theory from that. Holds LFLex Fridman
• Similar wording The whole point of reinforcement learning is to produce goal-directed beings, so refusing to describe AI agents as having motives is silly rather than rigorous. Holds ACAjeya Cotra
• Similar wording The hypotheses AI 'co-scientist' systems are producing are ones the literature already contains, and the publicity around them does not say so. Holds DLDerek Lowe
• Similar wording The AI companies' strategies will converge, because as AI grows more powerful it becomes clearer to everyone what the strategy should be. Holds ISIlya Sutskever
• Similar wording Systematising principled decision-making with AI is now the line between staying competitive and not; there is no position in between. Holds RDRay Dalio
• Similar wording The likeliest bad path is not a coup but sloppiness: AI does everything verifiable well, research races ahead, and the subtle work of keeping AI safe is what gets done badly. Holds RGRyan Greenblatt