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Robin Hanson

What Robin Hanson thinks about demographics

@robin-hanson · 22 positions · On ppll ↗

Associate professor of economics at George Mason University, originator of decision markets and futarchy, and author of the blog Overcoming Bias.

Robin Hanson did not write this page.

We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.

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Only Robin Hanson on demographics. See everyone on demographics

7 dated positions, 2021 to 2024, in their own words. Our reading of what Robin Hanson has said — not written or endorsed by them.

  1. Our readingExpecting AI or longer lives to arrive in time makes people skip having a plan for falling birth rates at all.

    Their wordsAnd they don’t see a need for a plan B, in case their forecast fails.

    ↗Five Fertility Failsovercomingbias.com 1st of 3 in this piece

  3. Our readingMany people refuse to act on falling birth rates because raising them is associated with people they consider enemies.

    Their wordsThey do not want to give such enemies the satisfaction of admitting they have a point.

    ↗Five Fertility Failsovercomingbias.com 2nd of 3 in this piece

  5. Our readingPaying parents large sums of cash directly is the pronatal policy most likely to work, because every indirect policy has to guess what the real obstacle is.

    housingeducation

    Their wordsSimilarly, most recent discussions of how to promote fertility discuss how we might promote housing, inequality, schooling, day-care, etc., but few consider directly paying parents big amounts to have kids. As indirect approaches require us to guess what are the actual main obstacles to fertility, they are more likely to fail.

    ↗Five Fertility Failsovercomingbias.com 3rd of 3 in this piece

  6. 3 months earlier

  7. Our readingThe fall in birth rates is caused by the values modern societies most cherish, so raising them means compromising some of those values.

    Their wordsIts main causes are tied to deeply held modern values that have been pushing us in this direction for most of this time across most of the world.

    ↗A Fertility Reckoningovercomingbias.com 1st of 3 in this piece

  9. Our readingThe most likely way world fertility rises again is the growth of small insular high-fertility groups, not a change of mind in the mainstream.

    Their wordsthe most likely identifiable scenario by which fertility will rise again is via the growth of currently-small insular high-fertility subgroups like the Amish and Orthodox Jews

    ↗A Fertility Reckoningovercomingbias.com 2nd of 3 in this piece

  11. Our readingGovernments should pay a lot for children and let the people who respond reveal which cultural compromises are acceptable, rather than deciding in advance which value to give up.

    Their wordsIt seems to me that an attractive robust approach is to have governments pay lots for kids (at no cost or risk to them!) and then let those who respond to these incentives tell us which compromises seem most attractive.

    ↗A Fertility Reckoningovercomingbias.com 3rd of 3 in this piece

  12. 2 years earlier

  13. Our readingFalling fertility is transmitted by the values that mass media spread, not by how rich any individual is.

    Their wordsIt seems to be correlated strongly with societal (not individual) wealth, and mediated by norms transmitted via mass media.

    ↗The Insular Fertile Futureovercomingbias.com