korrents

What Helen Toner thinks about AGI

@helen-toner · 12 positions · 0 changes of mind

Director of strategy at Georgetown's Center for Security and Emerging Technology and a former member of OpenAI's board. Writes Rising Tide, on how AI actually progresses and what policy can do about it.

Helen Toner did not write this page.

We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.

6 dated positions, 2025 to 2026, in their own words. Our reading of what Helen Toner has said — not written or endorsed by them.

  1. Our readingAI capabilities are jagged rather than smooth, so the different definitions of human-level AI will be met years apart rather than together.

    Their wordsThis makes it likely that there could be big gaps between when different definitions of AGI are fulfilled.

    ↗The term “AGI” is almost useless at this pointhelentoner.substack.com 1st of 2 in this piece

  3. Our readingThe term AGI has stopped being useful: today's best systems already meet some people's definitions of it while falling far short of others'.

    Their wordsToday’s best AI systems are good enough that they’re now inside the fuzzy conceptual cloud of “AGI-ish”: that is, they’ve surpassed some people’s definitions of AGI, while falling well short of others’.

    ↗The term “AGI” is almost useless at this pointhelentoner.substack.com 2nd of 2 in this piece

  4. 12 months earlier

  5. Our readingAdapting over time is a workable answer to humans misusing AI and no answer at all to losing control of systems smarter than us.

    Their wordsBut we do not have experience with the kinds of problems we’ll face if we build machines that are smarter and more capable than us, so I feel much less sanguine that an adaptation-based strategy will help us there.

    ↗Nonproliferation is the wrong approach to AI misusehelentoner.substack.com 4th of 5 in this piece

  6. 4 days earlier

  7. Our readingDismissing human-level AI as science fiction is now unserious, because even the sceptical experts put it within a decade or two.

    Their wordsDismissing discussion of AGI, human-level AI, transformative AI, superintelligence, etc. as “science fiction” should be seen as a sign of total unseriousness.

    ↗"Long" timelines to advanced AI have gotten crazy shorthelentoner.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece

    AI alignment

  9. Our readingArguing that human-level AI is very unlikely within twenty years is now the minority position, and the burden of proof has moved onto it.

    Their wordsIf you want to argue that human-level AI is extremely unlikely in the next 20 years, you certainly can, but you should treat that as a minority position where the burden of proof is on you.

    ↗"Long" timelines to advanced AI have gotten crazy shorthelentoner.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece

  11. Our readingAdvanced AI is close enough that the preparations which take years have to be started now, whichever end of the expert range you believe.

    Their wordsWe need to leap into action on many of the same things that could help if it does turn out that we only have a few years.

    ↗"Long" timelines to advanced AI have gotten crazy shorthelentoner.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece