korrents

← People and their mental models

Morgan Housel's mental models

8 claims Morgan Housel made fit 4 mental models. Most often: Margin of safety, Probabilistic thinking, Compounding. Everything they said here.

Models they name

Their own words name the idea.

Probabilistic thinking

Think in odds, not certainties, and bet heavily only when the odds are clearly yours.

When luck is separated from skill, the part to pay most attention to is what is repeatable: what someone could do again.

  1. Morgan Housel Partner at Collaborative Fund and author of The Psychology of Money you want to find what is repeatable and what you could do again and those are the things you should just pay the most attention to Morgan Housel: What You Need to Master (And Avoid) to Get Rich, Stay Rich, and Build Wealthyoutube.com · 28 May 2024 · 0:06:37 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    you want to find what is repeatable and what you could do again and those are the things you should just pay the most attention to

If something can be done to change the odds of an outcome, it is not luck by definition; luck is what is truly outside one's control, such as where and when one is born.

  1. Morgan Housel Partner at Collaborative Fund and author of The Psychology of Money if you can can do something that changes your odds of an outcome it's not luck by definition luck to me the biggest are where and when you were born you can't control it Morgan Housel: What You Need to Master (And Avoid) to Get Rich, Stay Rich, and Build Wealthyoutube.com · 28 May 2024 · 0:04:28 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    if you can can do something that changes your odds of an outcome it's not luck by definition luck to me the biggest are where and when you were born you can't control it

Models we see in what they say

Our reading: their claim applies the idea without naming it. The claim is theirs; filing it here is ours.

Margin of safety

Leave room for being wrong, because sometimes you will be.

Bold risk-taking and conservative paranoia can work together, as when Gates pursued an audacious vision while wanting a year of payroll in cash, combining getting rich with staying rich.

  1. Morgan Housel Partner at Collaborative Fund and author of The Psychology of Money the example that I always use is Bill Gates when he started Microsoft took the most audacious entrepreneurial swing that maybe anyone's ever taken of saying every desk in the world needs a computer on this and he's saying this in 1974 whatever it was crazy amount of risk crazy bold Vision at the same time he said that he always wanted Microsoft to have enough cash in the bank to make payroll for one year with no Revenue which is the most conservative pessimistic way to run a business so he's like very risk-taking and very conservative paranoid at the same time very good at getting rich very good at staying Rich at the same time Morgan Housel: What You Need to Master (And Avoid) to Get Rich, Stay Rich, and Build Wealthyoutube.com · 28 May 2024 · 0:48:15 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    the example that I always use is Bill Gates when he started Microsoft took the most audacious entrepreneurial swing that maybe anyone's ever taken of saying every desk in the world needs a computer on this and he's saying this in 1974 whatever it was crazy amount of risk crazy bold Vision at the same time he said that he always wanted Microsoft to have enough cash in the bank to make payroll for one year with no Revenue which is the most conservative pessimistic way to run a business so he's like very risk-taking and very conservative paranoid at the same time very good at getting rich very good at staying Rich at the same time

Risk is best defined as whatever could keep a person from their own goals, so stock-market volatility is a risk for a day trader and not for someone retiring in fifty years.

  1. Morgan Housel Partner at Collaborative Fund and author of The Psychology of Money I think broadly it's anything that's going to prevent you from achieving the goals that you want that's a a very basic answer but I think that's what it is and the reason that's important is because take volatility in the stock market is that risk well it could be if you're a day trader then yes if the market goes down tomorrow that's a risk for you if you're in if you're going to retire in 50 years it's not whatsoever Morgan Housel: What You Need to Master (And Avoid) to Get Rich, Stay Rich, and Build Wealthyoutube.com · 28 May 2024 · 0:46:30 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    I think broadly it's anything that's going to prevent you from achieving the goals that you want that's a a very basic answer but I think that's what it is and the reason that's important is because take volatility in the stock market is that risk well it could be if you're a day trader then yes if the market goes down tomorrow that's a risk for you if you're in if you're going to retire in 50 years it's not whatsoever

Debt is best understood as narrowing the range of outcomes you can survive, not as a cost of capital.

  1. Morgan Housel Partner at Collaborative Fund and author of The Psychology of Money I think this is the most practical way to think about debt: As debt increases, you narrow the range of outcomes you can endure in life. How I Think About Debtcollabfund.com · 30 Apr 2024All korrents from this piece
    I think this is the most practical way to think about debt: As debt increases, you narrow the range of outcomes you can endure in life.

The real price of debt is paid in options and flexibility, which is the asset that matters most.

  1. Morgan Housel Partner at Collaborative Fund and author of The Psychology of Money you start to see it as a constraint on the asset that matters most: having options and flexibility How I Think About Debtcollabfund.com · 30 Apr 2024All korrents from this piece
    you start to see it as a constraint on the asset that matters most: having options and flexibility

Compounding

Small gains that build on themselves beat big one-off wins; so do small losses.

Being average for an above-average period of time can lead to a well above-average result, because endurance rather than this year's return is the variable that matters.

  1. Morgan Housel Partner at Collaborative Fund and author of The Psychology of Money if I can be average for an above average period of time that leads to a way above average result it's not it's it's not about like what are the returns that I can earn this year if I can earn 8% returns for 50 years the results are ridiculous the results are absurd and so maximizing the variable that matters which is time and endurance Morgan Housel: What You Need to Master (And Avoid) to Get Rich, Stay Rich, and Build Wealthyoutube.com · 28 May 2024 · 1:12:03 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    if I can be average for an above average period of time that leads to a way above average result it's not it's it's not about like what are the returns that I can earn this year if I can earn 8% returns for 50 years the results are ridiculous the results are absurd and so maximizing the variable that matters which is time and endurance

Many models, not one

Carry many models from many fields and use them together; with only one, every problem looks like a nail for your hammer.

More about money may be learned from fields like politics, military history, biology and sociology than from a finance book, because the question is how people make decisions.

  1. Morgan Housel Partner at Collaborative Fund and author of The Psychology of Money I think you can learn more about money by reading about politics military history biology sociology than you will by reading a finance book because you're just trying to figure out how do people make decisions how do you make decisions and how do other people make decisions and by and large you're not going to learn that in an economics textbook but you will learn about it by reading all of these other fields that have nothing to do with money Morgan Housel: What You Need to Master (And Avoid) to Get Rich, Stay Rich, and Build Wealthyoutube.com · 28 May 2024 · 1:28:41 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    I think you can learn more about money by reading about politics military history biology sociology than you will by reading a finance book because you're just trying to figure out how do people make decisions how do you make decisions and how do other people make decisions and by and large you're not going to learn that in an economics textbook but you will learn about it by reading all of these other fields that have nothing to do with money